Is Trump subverting the intellectual class splitting the United States? Are you overthinking it?

In some people's works, new york, the depressed Silicon Valley and the happy agricultural state in central America are simply two worlds. Students and professors shed tears of the end of the world on campus. Of course, they don't feel sorry for Hillary, but they sadly found that for the first time in many years, ordinary people didn't follow the route taught by elites, whether it was George W. Bush's, America's or Obama's, yes, we can.

Trump's rise is not a victory of black swan or populism at all. Its process and result are actually a repeat of Truman's defeat of Dewey in the 1948 general election, and it is also the emotional cycle of the American people for 60 years.

How did Truman, the dark horse, kill Dewey, the elite

The American general election of 1948 began in the atmosphere of 16 Roosevelt's giant shadow gradually dispersed and the Democratic Party was tired of his love. Truman, who had long relied on Roosevelt's shadow, was addicted to the presidency after he ascended the throne, but he had a poor sense of existence, was endowed with rudeness and outspoken expression, and was not liked by intellectuals and celebrities. Washington post once criticized his daughter Truman.

Dewey, a prosecutor, accumulated contacts during the Great Depression. He resolutely cracked down on organized crime, and the conviction rate of 94% was unparalleled. He became a real hero in the hearts of the people. After entering politics, he is also a frequent visitor to various elite gatherings. With the support of financial consortia and abundant funds, he often gives long speeches on the radio.

In Gallup's early polls, Truman was at least 20 percentage points behind Dewey, but the former immediately made a decision to change history. The defending president walked out of the office, boarded the train, and launched a campaign expedition totaling 365,438+0,000 kilometers from the east coast to the west coast of the United States. He visited every station along the way, even a small village with only a few hundred people, and gave a speech to all kinds of people at the bottom. Compared with Dewey, Truman is more approachable, more grounded and more grounded.

By the time of invoicing, various export polls still showed that Dewey would overwhelm Truman with 49% of the votes. The Chicago Tribune even published a special issue of Dewey's victory. Dewey himself boasted to his wife, "Tomorrow you will sleep in the same bed as the President." As a result, Dewey lost the election for two hours the next day, and his wife teased Dewey in turn, "Do I want to see Mr. Truman tonight?"

Truman, who won the election, showed the newspaper that announced Dewey's victory.

Compared with Truman, Trump is just an anti-traditional network celebrity in the Internet age. After his unexpected counterattack, he was labeled with all kinds of big hats that did not belong to him.

1, thinking that this is the direct result of the American middle class returning to poverty.

The theoretical basis is a report released by the Pew Research Center, which shows that the proportion of "middle class" in the United States is below 50% for the first time in 20 15 years. In fact, the proportion of high-income and low-income groups in the United States increased from 197 1-20 15 to 265438 respectively.

So the truth is that there are more people moving upward in American olive society than returning to poverty, but this is not the perspective of the bottom people. Their sense of substitution is that the upper class is richer, but their situation has not fundamentally improved. Globalization has led to the continuous shift of the bottom manufacturing industry, but this is a problem faced by all countries, just as people who buy houses in China support the current economic development model, while those who can't afford to buy houses expect to change.

I thought a country would be crushed by an election.

People's emotions are cyclical. After World War II, Americans lived too comfortably, and individualism was like water bursting its banks. When Kennedy came, he advocated "Ask not what your country has done for you, ask what you have done for your country". After the Vietnam War, there was no mainstream knowledge in society, only when Reagan led the return of traditional values.

Many people in China are particularly shocked and happy to see the anti-Trump sentiment on the streets of the United States. In fact, it is rare and strange, because the division and turmoil in the United States and even the West in the 1960 s and 1970 s were far more serious than now. During the Vietnam War, there were often angry anti-war people on one side of the road, and the spectacle of war fans appeared on the other side. A female college student even held a card "Give me a draft card". America at that time was called racial tearing.

Look at America at that time.

Even the movies at that time were filled with the flavor of eschatology, such as j carpente's Extreme Space, in which a blue-collar white man could not find a job because of too many immigrants. One day, he suddenly discovered that it was aliens who controlled the social elite and brainwashed the people through various media means, making them give up independent thinking and fully accept the opinions of experts. In the film, the dollar simply said "This is your God".

The hero of Extreme Space is a typical "special powder"

Obviously, this is a metaphorical resistance of the lower-class whites to the mainstream media's attempt to instill elite values. Today, it is mixed with anti-globalization, anti-TPP, anti-WTO, anti-North American trade agreement and other emotions.

At the end of the film, the protagonist shouts: These aliens dressed as * * * and party member have quietly occupied our earth in order to slowly worsen our environment and make it suitable for their survival. Carpenter arranged an allegorical ending, and the people smashed the TV set, thus gaining some spiritual liberation.

Obviously, those Americans who voted for Trump just turned this entertainment spirit into reality. Americans are born big children, always optimistic. On the one hand, they are conspiracy theorists and never trust politicians. After playing election politics for so many years, I haven't seen any big battles. How can I be caught off guard by a Trump?

It's not our turn to worry about the fate of America.

I think social governance must have the best of both worlds.

This view has a good market. Trump's so-called politics is incorrect because he doesn't care, and he likes to tell some big truths in a very low and sensational way, and the truth is always the most cruel. Some naive people think that there will be reasonable and humane solutions to problems such as medical insurance, tax reduction and immigration. The truth is that there is no such thing, never!

There are gains and losses in everything. If immigration is liberalized, it will definitely impact the employment of white people. If tax cuts are given to enterprises, it will definitely worsen fiscal revenue and expenditure. All these will only delay the outbreak of the problem. In Bai Yang's words, this is Zhuan Xu. One needle can't penetrate, and two needles will kill you.

As far as politics is concerned, there is never anything that makes everyone happy. That's not unity, that's muddling along. After the end of World War II, Churchill's prestige was in full swing, but Britain sent a new Prime Minister Attlee in the middle of the Yalta Conference. Churchill lamented that an ungrateful nation is a great nation.

I thought Trump was going to spoil the game.

Let's look at this problem from another angle. Trump's documented income is $557 million. He burned $50 million for his campaign and got a hard job with an annual salary of $400,000 for the rest of his life at the age of 70. Is it enough to let go of the arrogance of billionaires and accept public supervision?

With Trump's shrewdness, you don't need to read Mark Twain's Running for Governor to know that this is not a good deal. Moreover, the eyes of the elite and the mainstream media do not allow him to engage in any interest transfer. Therefore, Trump, who has always had a big mouth and worrying personality, actually has an idealistic aura in this matter.

Some people are trapped by Trump's critical emotions, so it is better to wait patiently for his achievements before doing it. After all, the new york Times and Gallup didn't show public opinion, and neither did the circle of friends.

Everything still has to speak with results.