Is it impossible for Canadian housing prices, the most authoritative rating agency in the world, to go up again?

Due to the Bank of Canada's interest rate hike and people's worries about the economic market prospects, housing prices in all parts of Canada are on a downward trend, but the nationwide decline is uneven. According to the new statistics of the Real Estate Association of Canada (CREA), house prices in some parts of the country have only dropped slightly, and some places have even plummeted. In August 2022, the benchmark house price in Ontario was 904 800 yuan, which was 65,438+05.9% lower than the peak in February this year. At the same time, the house price in greater toronto area dropped by 15.2%, from the benchmark price of 1.36 million yuan to 1.20 million yuan.

In Ontario, Cambridge, which is about two hours away from Toronto, dropped by 24.5%, while Oakville and kitchener Waterloo in London dropped by 23%. Conversely, places such as Bancroft, Ontario and Saltus increased by 10 to 14%.

The end of the year is approaching, but the epidemic situation in COVID-19 has not dissipated, and the virus risk is impacting every corner of the world. Here in Canada, with the arrival of the first batch of pre-vaccines in Canada last night (Sunday), the federal government and the local government are full of confidence in the idea that the epidemic will soon "subside". Looking back on Canada's real estate market, various bank loans, real estate brokers and even international rating agencies have made meticulous and bold attempts to forecast and analyze Canada's real estate next year.

First of all, the famous Canadian real estate companies RoyalLePage and Re/Max are optimistic about the average house price in the coming year. They feel that the economic development in the coming year may be strongly restored due to the historical low rate and the promotion of high demand but low supply of real estate, and the overall house price may rise by 4%-6%, and the early seedlings have been sold. According to the survey, in the Greater Vancouver area, the average house price has exceeded1million dollars, and RoyalLePage even predicted that by 20021year, the average house price in the Greater Vancouver area will be 9%!

Secondly, Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), a large Canadian financial institution, negatively predicted that the price increase in Canada in 20021year was almost the same. In good times, the national housing price increase is about the pre-epidemic level; In the worst case, house prices will plummet, even falling below the record of the biggest decline since the beginning of 1980, and immediately plummet by 30%! In the next 12 months, the national house price will drop by 29.6%; In the next two to five years, the compound annual growth rate will be only 2.9%. Since the early 1980s, there has not been such a significant decline in Canada.

According to RBC statistics, in most mortgage loans, 65,438+0.8% of overdue payments have become overdue payments. In terms of breakdown, the borrowing speed of secured mortgage loans is faster than that of unsecured mortgage loans. Of the pledged liabilities of 654.38+04.3 billion, 2.3% is owed at present.

FitchRatings, one of the world's three major credit rating agencies, also issued a statement saying that in 20021year, Canadian house prices will be lowered to 3-5% to a certain extent. Moreover, this decline may offset all the economic efficiency that has continued to grow this year, and even affect the house price in 2022. And this statement is similar to the previous forecast of the National Bank of Canada. They also stressed that there are many factors that are the main reasons for the decline in housing prices, but the key reason is that the outbreak of the epidemic has caused the US federal government to restrict the entry of new immigrants, which has led to a large-scale decline in the rental sales market in Toronto, Vancouver and other metropolises by 65,438+00-65,438+05%, thus reducing the attractiveness of real estate; Coupled with economic sanctions, so that the majority of first-time buyers or buyers do not have the ability to buy new real estate economic development.