20 16 national annual hot word-buying a house

In the first half of 20 16, the whole country experienced a "property market carnival" along the 1234 line. 20 15 first-tier cities just need customers who are still struggling to enter the market. By this year, they can only struggle to buy a house in the second line.

After the Spring Festival, Hefei and Suzhou set off the climax of the first wave of second-tier cities, followed by Nanjing, Wuhan and Zhengzhou, and none of the second-tier cities fell. People in need in second-tier cities complain that returning investors push up housing prices. The first-line demanders are wondering, "How come the second line has gone up, and the first line can't come down?"

People in the street are talking about buying a house. "Have you bought a house" can even replace "Have you eaten" as the annual greeting of 20 16.

I still remember that the theme of this year's two sessions is "supply side" and the real estate sector is "destocking". Before and after the two sessions at the beginning of the year, the central bank also launched a series of credit policies to continuously release liquidity and stimulate housing demand. In less than a few months, the fire in the national property market was ignited.

Talking about "destocking" now always feels like a lifetime ago, because since the Golden Week of 1 1 month, the state has started the most stringent regulation and control policies for real estate since the "silver age", such as restricting purchases, loans, financing and investment. The national 2 1 city issued a document, and Shanghai and most second-tier cities continued to raise prices thereafter. Nine days before New Year's Day, the Housing Authority of Zhengzhou and Wuhan issued a document overnight to grab another wave at the end of the year.

At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference encouraged developers to cut prices and go to stock. At the end of this year, developers were also strictly controlled. 165438+ 10, Nanjing, Foshan, Guangzhou and other places introduced new regulations, housing enterprises must use their own funds to acquire land, and some small and medium-sized housing enterprises with insufficient cash flow directly cut off supply.

Intermediary stores have become a "beautiful" landscape, and the new advertising law implemented at the beginning of the year began to really land after the purchase restriction. After inspection by law enforcement departments, all the red, green and yellow price lists of Zhongyuan, Jia Lian and Midland were gone, leaving only a bare aluminum alloy frame, and the air was solemn.

Is the market falling? At least the volume has stabilized. After the National Day holiday, the property market in major cities across the country started the "quick freezing" mode. According to Central Plains data, by the end of 10, the transaction volume of major cities in China generally decreased by 40%. 165438+ 10, the transaction volume of several cities continued to decline. Shanghai 165438+ 10, the transaction volume of new commercial housing fell to the bottom of 130 square meters, and the intermediary is now "a wave of layoffs"; The volume and price of new houses in Shenzhen fell for the first time in 65438+February; Nanjing experienced its first decline in nearly 19 months, with a cumulative increase of 6 1.2% in the previous period.

The control policy blocked both ends of supply and demand, not only the market transactions, but also the number of developers entering the market in the second half of the year was greatly reduced, not to mention the large-scale non-compliance of real estate hoarding in some cities, and some projects originally planned to enter the market at the end of the year simply canceled the pre-sale permit application. Under normal circumstances, the end of the year is the time for developers to sprint their performance.

What should I do if I don't enter the market at this time and can't achieve the sales target? Referring to the semi-annual reports of major real estate enterprises, Vanke's sales in the first half of the year were 654.38 billion+090 billion, completing 63% of the overall sales target; Evergrande's sales in the first half of the year were 1, 41.80 million, and it achieved 71%of the annual target; Country Garden sold 1 25 1 100 million yuan in the first half of the year. Due to its "unexpectedly good performance", the annual target was raised from 1.68 billion yuan to 220 billion yuan.

Obviously, many developers have made a lot of money in the property market in the first half of the year before the purchase restriction has arrived, and it is no problem to "converge" in the second half of the year.

A few days ago, the Central Economic Work Conference put forward three aspects of the property market regulation policy in 20 17: loan restriction, purchase restriction and accountability. It is necessary to macro-control the currency, allocate construction land indicators according to population mobility, implement the main responsibility of local governments, and urge third-and fourth-tier cities to go to stock. From this point of view, policy regulation is likely to become the main tone of next year.

Tell two more stories.

On Christmas Day, a friend who was studying in England took advantage of the holiday to return home, and the purpose of returning home was to buy a house. My friend is from Shandong. He took a fancy to the house in Hangzhou. Before leaving, he asked me on WeChat: "I want to buy a house of about 5 million. Is there any recommendation? "

"Hangzhou is restricted. How to buy your account if it is not in Hangzhou? " I asked.

"Restricted purchase? When did this happen? What is the purchase restriction for such a cheap house in Hangzhou? " The friend said.

So I began to take pains to explain what happened to the motherland in the year when he was eroded by decadent capitalist culture. Hangzhou implemented a comprehensive purchase restriction policy for foreigners at the beginning of last month.

"Oh, then I'll add millions to buy an unlimited villa." The other end of WeChat replies. I ended this awkward conversation with "Ha ha ha ha ha ha you are happy".

This is the story of a local tyrant in a "corrupt country", and there is also a story of the post-90s generation in Shenzhen, a well-off Chengdu girl who has been renting in the famous glass sea view room "Mangrove West Bank" since she came to Shenzhen. At the beginning of the year, the landlord had a premonition that the market was not good, and the annual rent rose by 65,438+10,000 in one breath. Her friend advised her to buy the house altogether. She smiled, "I would rather buy land abroad than buy a house in Shenzhen", and then paid 300 thousand rent to continue living. Two months later, she bought a piece of land in Italy for 6,543,800 yuan, and said that she planned to build six villas.

Also a few days ago, the girl said that she had bought a set of Shenzhen Bay 1 and had already started to pay the monthly payment. I looked through the price list of the top flat floor in Shenzhen, and the cheapest set can buy 7 pieces of Italian soil.

These two things have greatly impacted my three views. All voices are pointing to the fact that the property market is cooling down, and there is no hope of a property market transaction at the end of the year. At this time, it is difficult for me to understand the investors entering the market. When they face the regulatory policies, the wind is light and the clouds are light, which makes me realize what a "high-end property buyer" is. There are always corners that can't be hit in the purchase restriction, and there are always hot money that can't be cooled.

(The above answers were published on 20 16- 12-29. Please refer to the actual purchase policy. )

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