A paper asking for help analyzing the causes of population migration

Population migration and mobility refer to the movement of population in space. Population migration and mobility are social and economic phenomena. The intensification of population migration and mobility is accompanied by economic development. It interacts with economic development and promotes each other.

Because population migration has a great impact on the macro pattern of population distribution, and inter-provincial migration is an important way to balance regional productivity distribution, it has had a profound impact on my country's industry, urban layout, and regional development over the past few decades. It has a profound impact and therefore deserves special attention.

In 1986, the Population Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences conducted the first population migration sampling survey in 74 towns in 16 provinces. This survey involved 25,538 households with a total of 100,267 people, representing 43.5 million urban residents. . However, because the survey was limited to urban areas and the given scope of temporary migration was not complete, temporary migrants who had lived in cities and towns for more than one year were classified as permanent migrants, thus underestimating the total number of temporary migrants. Shortly after this population migration sample survey, the National Bureau of Statistics conducted a nationwide 1% population sample survey in 1987, which included items on population migration and obtained relatively representative and systematic population migration data. . A major improvement compared to the previous three censuses was the fourth census conducted in 1990. For the first time, the census questionnaire added the number of people who migrated from 1985 to 1990, and recorded nine reasons for migration. These three surveys, especially the fourth census data in 1990, provide us with favorable conditions and powerful arguments to deeply understand the characteristics, development trends and possible impact of population migration in my country on social and economic development, and to verify existing analytical conclusions. .

1. Reasons for population migration in my country in recent years

In the past few decades, my country's population migration and mobility have been suppressed due to strict control, and the voluntary migration of the population has It has always been very low. Although there were a large number of population migration activities from the 1950s to the 1970s, they were mainly administrative transfers. For example, in the 1950s, the government organized immigration to support border provinces, and in the 1960s, educated youth went to the mountains and rural areas. and their massive return to the city in the late 1970s. The 1980s was an important period during which the characteristics of population migration in my country were undergoing dramatic changes. Since the 1980s, with the reform and opening up of my country's economy and the gradual establishment and improvement of the socialist market economic system, the closed and semi-closed population distribution situation between urban and rural areas and between regions that has long been formed in our country has been fundamentally changed. Migration and mobility are increasing, and the proportion of planned migration is declining.

According to the 1987 Population Sampling Survey data, the average number of people migrating across cities, towns and counties in my country from 1982 to 1987 was only 3.63 million per year. According to the calculation results of the fourth census data, between 1985 and 1985 In 1990, the number increased to an average of 10.53 million people per year. The migrant population is also growing rapidly. Taking the five major cities of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenyang as examples, the total floating population increased from 2.5 million to 5.36 million from 1984 to 1988, an increase of 114%.

Population migration, as a socioeconomic phenomenon, is the result of the combined action of multiple factors. Since the 1980s, the main reasons for the sharp increase in population migration and mobility in our country are as follows:

From a macro perspective: (1) First, the reform has created a relatively relaxed environment for population migration and mobility. . The implementation of the joint production contract responsibility system in rural areas and the further adjustment of the internal agricultural structure have released a large number of wealthy labor forces in rural areas; the relaxation and loosening of various policies restricting population migration and mobility have made population migration and mobility objectively possible, and a large number of people have spontaneously migrated. Increase. (2) Economic development is the driving force for accelerating population migration. Since economic development speeds and levels vary between regions, the per capita income of each region varies greatly. This imbalance in regional economic development and the large differences in interests make the more economically developed regions attractive to the labor force from the less developed regions. (3) The population born during the baby boom in the 1960s and 1970s are now at the age of entering school, finding employment, and getting married, which is the peak age for migration.

From a micro perspective, the economic motivation for working and doing business is the most direct factor that promotes inter-provincial migration.

We divide the reasons for migration listed in the fourth census in 1990 into economic and non-economic categories. Economic migration includes job transfer, assignment and employment, working and doing business; non-economic migration includes marriage migration, moving family members with them, visiting relatives and friends, study and training, and retirement. In a closed and backward natural economic structure, there are only some migration flows accompanying social life, such as marriage migration, etc. However, with the development and opening of the economy, population migration and flows related to economic activities have grown rapidly. The proportion of migration will continue to increase. The changes in the causes of population migration in my country in recent years reflect this trend.

From 1985 to 1990, economic migrants accounted for 42.99% of inter-provincial population migration in my country, and non-economic migrants accounted for 57.01%.

The proportion of economic migration increased by 9.09 percentage points from 33.90% in the early 1980s (1982-1987). Among them, 8.56 million people were working for industry and business, accounting for 25.09%, an increase of 17% from the early 1980s. . 7 percentage points, work and business has jumped from the sixth place in the early 1980s to the first place, and its status is very prominent (see Table 1). In addition to work and business, the main reasons for inter-provincial population migration in my country from 1985 to 1990 were marriage migration and study and training. In the early 1980s, the top three reasons for population migration were job transfer, family migration, and marriage migration.