What impact will the transition of 20 12 have on the economy?

20 12, political changes are all over the world, from European countries such as Spain and France, which are troubled by the debt crisis, to the United States, which may lead the global economic recovery, to the emerging country Russia, which has weakened its limelight, all will face the presidential election. Due to the financial crisis and debt crunch in developed countries, social pressure has increased sharply and the uncertainty of election results has increased; Emerging countries are facing economic downturn, influenced by the "Arab Spring" to varying degrees, and the election situation has become complicated.

French general election and European debt crisis

Europe is still the most likely source of global economic earthquakes. As far as debt maturity is concerned, the most stressful months of 20 12 are March, July and 10. Judging from the recent auctions of Spanish and Italian government bonds, the situation has eased.

If the uncertainty of the election itself is not taken into account, the French election is unlikely to hinder the integration process of the euro zone, and the election results will not necessarily lead to the deterioration of the crisis. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Socialist francois hollande and Marina Le Pen, president of the far-right National Front, are recognized as the three most competitive candidates. But no matter who is in power, France's foreign policy with Europe as its axis should not be shifted.

Us election

Sino-US relations, the situation in the Middle East

According to public information, the United States, the Party and the Democratic Party have great differences on the following issues: First, the deficit problem. * * * and the party advocates small government and big market, and opposes taxation. The Democratic Party advocates a high tax policy; Second, financial supervision. The financial regulatory reform carried out by the Obama administration has caused Wall Street to face a catastrophe. Both parties have played a positive and negative role in Wall Street. Thirdly, immigration reform, the Obama administration advocates comprehensive immigration reform, focusing on solving the problem of illegal immigration status in China. And the * * * party stressed the need to strengthen border security first; Fourth, energy reform, Obama's legislation on energy and climate change has been resisted by Congress and the party, especially the total carbon emission control and trading mechanism is extremely controversial. * * * and the party said that this mechanism is tantamount to collecting energy taxes nationwide, and clearly expressed its opposition to this mechanism in the campaign platform; Fifth, Sino-US relations: * * And political parties tend to be tougher, emphasizing the importance of strength, for example, taking a tougher attitude towards China on the South China Sea issue. Generally speaking, the United States will be tough on China on 20 12.

RMB exchange rate and trade will become a focus of Sino-US relations in 20 12 years, and RMB exchange rate will continue to appreciate. President Obama's campaign slogan is "We have just begun" and "Look at the jobs we have created", which shows that he attaches importance to employment. Whether it is to further improve employment or to take a tough stance towards China, exchange rate and trade issues will become its chips. Therefore, if the extreme situation is not considered, the exchange rate of 20 12 RMB will still be dominated by appreciation. In May and June, China will face greater pressure in the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue and the exchange rate report of the US Treasury.

The election reduces the possibility of the United States taking the initiative to go to war against Iran, which is conducive to stabilizing the global political situation and crude oil prices.

China Government Transformation and Policy Logic

First, keep the word steady. Because of maintaining stability, the policy direction must be loose. Because of the weak economic situation, it is necessary to control local economic and financial risks so as not to spread into overall risks. Because there may be differences between the current head of government and the next head of government due to political prospects and ruling style, it is uncertain how and at what speed to relax the policy.

Second, economic transformation, striving for progress in stability. This is also the conclusion drawn from the goal of maintaining stability. Both the government and the people believe that there is no way out for China without reform and transformation. What is uncertain is that there are too many arguments and games about the focus, path and speed of reform, which require strong politics and great wisdom (60 15 19).

Third, inflation will not be taken lightly. Deteriorating inflation is a political issue, which means that it is difficult for monetary policy to significantly exceed expectations.

Fourth, real estate regulation should be effective. This is a political issue, which concerns the credibility of the government and people's livelihood. The catalyst for the loosening of real estate regulation and control policies is sluggish sales and land auction, and the price may be just a tool to guide expectations and public opinion.

(The author is the chief macro analyst of Huatai United Securities)