What is Lebanon's problem?

After the Fourth Middle East War, the anti-Israel armed forces such as the PLO and Pearl Party established bases in southern Lebanon and Beirut, which seriously threatened Israel's security. 1982, Israel brazenly invaded Lebanon, wiped out the anti-Israel armed forces (mainly the PLO) and established a "security zone" in southern Lebanon. In the late 1990s, under the pressure of the international community, Israel basically withdrew from the "security zone", but the boundary line has not been clearly defined.

Elections in Lebanon:

At present, there are two main factions in Lebanese politics: pro-government anti-Syrian faction and anti-government pro-Syrian faction. After the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, the contradiction between the two factions escalated. On June 5438+065438+ 10 last year, six pro-Syrian cabinet ministers resigned one after another, which shows that the contradiction between the two sides has reached an irreconcilable level. For their own interests, both sides hope to dominate the presidential election.

The Lebanese Constitution stipulates that the President shall be elected by the Parliament. The Lebanese Parliament has 65,438+028 seats. Candidates can be directly elected if they get more than two-thirds of the votes in the first round of elections. If no one gets more than two-thirds of the votes, the person who gets the majority in the second round election can be elected.

However, the pro-government parliamentary majority members are less than two-thirds, which cannot ensure that the candidates of this faction win in one fell swoop; The opposition boycotted the election, which led to the "abortion" of the parliamentary meeting on September 25. Although pro-government leader saad hariri met with Speaker Berry, one of the main leaders of the opposition, and people at home and abroad made many mediations, both sides refused to compromise and still failed to reach an agreement.

Foreign forces have a great influence.

Foreign forces are one of the important factors that lead to the complicated political situation in Lebanon. Pro-government factions accuse the opposition of being controlled by Syria and Iran, while the opposition claims that the government faction is a "puppet of the West". Some local media pointed out that the struggle between various factions in Lebanon actually reflected the contest between some foreign forces.

Hezbollah and other anti-government parties are generally influenced by Iran and Syria and strongly oppose the Middle East policy of the West, especially the United States. They are worried that once the pro-Western majority candidate becomes president, they will implement policies that harm their interests.

On the other hand, pro-government factions supported by the United States, France and other western powers have always accused Syria of participating in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and others. They are worried that the investigation and trial of these cases will be affected once the opposition candidate becomes president.

Both sides of the contradiction do not give in to each other.

Vlasova Ajello, editor-in-chief of Daylight, the newspaper with the largest circulation in Lebanon, analyzed that at present, when negotiating the presidential candidate, Lebanese factions actually do not pay attention to a person's leadership and conduct, but consider his political inclination and personal relationship with his own faction.

It is still difficult to predict whether the pro-government faction and the opposition can finally reach a compromise on the presidential candidate. Earlier, pro-government leaders repeatedly said that if the two sides could not reach an agreement on the presidential candidate, they would elect a new president according to the principle of "simple majority". On June 5438+0 1, Nasrallah, the backbone of the opposition and the general secretary of Hizbullah, made a televised speech, saying that if pro-government factions arbitrarily elected the president according to the principle of "simple majority", Hizbullah would regard them as "usurpers".

The intransigence between the two sides makes it more difficult to solve the crisis of Lebanese presidential election. If 165438, after the term of office of current President Lahoud ends, the two sides still fail to reach an agreement, then there is likely to be a "power vacuum" in Lebanon, or a situation in which two factions each hold a "president". Analysts believe that if this happens, Lebanon's political arena will be more turbulent, and Lebanon will even have a security crisis. Recently, the Lebanese army and police stepped up their precautions, and more tanks appeared on the streets of Beirut last weekend. Souffir, Archbishop of Lebanese Maronites, said that the current situation in Lebanon is "the worst in 30 years".

Relations between Lebanon and Arab countries * Saudi Arabia:

At present, there are about 367,000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, 26% of whom live in big cities, 45% in the 12 refugee camp receiving United Nations relief, and about 70,000 people live in the 13 settlement without health, education and social services.

In 2006, Lebanon continued to actively develop friendly relations with other Arab countries. During his war in Lebanon, Arab countries gave Lebanon political and financial support. After the conflict, Saudi Arabia and the Arab League also actively mediated to mediate internal contradictions in Lebanon.

Relations with Israel

Southern Lebanon borders on northern Israel. 1In June 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon on a large scale. From 65438 to 0985, Israel established a "security zone" of about 850 square kilometers in southern Lebanon on the grounds of defending the northern Galilee region, stationed more than 1,000 troops in the "security zone" and fostered the South Lebanon Army composed of 3,000 pro-Israel Christians. In May 2000, Israel unilaterally withdrew its troops from southern Lebanon, but Lebanon still adhered to the international boundary line of 1923, demanding an end to the occupation of Shab 'a Farms and withdrawing to the Syrian-Israeli boundary line of 1967; Condemn the construction of the "wall". In 2005, Hezbollah armed forces and Israeli troops frequently exchanged fire in the southern border area of Lebanon, causing certain casualties. On July 12, 2006, Hezbollah attacked Israel across the border and captured two Israeli soldiers. Then, the Israeli army launched a large-scale military operation against Lebanon, and the war in Lebanon suddenly escalated, which aroused widespread concern in the international community. On August 1 1, the Security Council adopted resolution 170 1, demanding that both sides stop hostilities completely. 14, both sides cease fire. This conflict has caused more than 65,438,000 civilian deaths, more than 4,000 injuries and more than 654,380,000 displacements in Lebanon. There were also 157 deaths in Israel.

Relations with the United States

Lebanon and the United States established diplomatic relations on 1943. Lebanon attaches importance to developing relations with the United States and strives for political, economic and military support and help from the United States. The United States supports Lebanon's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity and the Taif Agreement; Urging Syrian troops to withdraw from Lebanon; Demands that the Lebanese government disarm Hizbullah. 1997, the United States lifted the 12-year ban on American citizens going to Lebanon. The beauty lies in "9? After the "1 1" incident, Hizbullah was declared a terrorist organization, and put forward a series of demands to the Lebanese government, such as freezing its armed actions and funds, and intelligence cooperation between the two sides, and hinted that it might use force against Hizbullah. The Lebanese government insists on distinguishing the national resistance movement from terrorism, and some of them have rejected the request of the United States. In addition, when the Security Council considered UNIFIL's term, the United States supported the reduction of UNIFIL's number and the change of its functions, which also made Lebanon dissatisfied. After the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri in February 2005, the United States stepped up its intervention in Lebanon, forced Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon, supported anti-Syrian factions in parliamentary elections, and enhanced its influence on Lebanon. In April, June and February, 65438, the United States, France and Britain urged the Security Council to adopt resolutions 1595, 1636 and 1644 on the international independent investigation of Hariri's murder. In 2006, the United States favored Israel during the Lebanon war, and its image in Lebanon was damaged. After the conflict, the United States promised to provide Lebanon with $230 million in aid, including $40 million in military aid.

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