The current situation of water resources globally and in China

Analysis Report on the Current Situation and Situation of Water Resources in my country

1) Current Situation of Water Resources in my country

my country is a country short of water resources, and the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources Uneven. In recent years, my country has suffered from severe droughts continuously. The frequency and scope of droughts have expanded, and their duration and losses have increased. Currently, more than 400 of the more than 600 cities across the country are short of water, and more than 100 of them are severely short of water. The current water supply in big cities such as Beijing and Tianjin has reached its most critical moment. At the same time, due to population growth, my country's per capita water resources will drop from the current 2,200 cubic meters to 1,700 to 1,800 cubic meters by 2030. Water demand is close to the amount of water resources that can be developed and utilized, and the water shortage problem will become more prominent. Therefore, it is urgent to save water resources and strengthen the awareness of water scarcity. We must start from me, start from ourselves, and save every drop of water. In addition, there are other problems in the development of my country's water resources: (1) Flood disasters pose potential threats to national economic development and social stability (92) Water utilization efficiency is not high (3) Water resources are generally polluted. In 2003, the Huaihe and Haihe rivers , Liaohe River, Taihu Lake, Chaohu Lake and Dianchi Lake, the total discharge of major water pollutants remains high. Half of the tributaries in the Huaihe River Basin are still seriously polluted, and the Haihe and Liaohe rivers are severely lacking in ecological water. Among them, the Xiliao River in Inner Mongolia has been dry for five consecutive years. Taihu Lake, Chaohu Lake, and Dianchi Lake all have worse than Category 5 water quality, with serious pollution from organic matter such as total nitrogen and total phosphorus. Taking the Yellow River as an example, industrial pollution is the main cause of water pollution in the Yellow River, accounting for 73% of the total wastewater discharge. The annual economic loss due to water pollution is about 11.5 billion to 15.6 billion yuan. At the same time, what is worrying is that many farmlands along the Yellow River are forced to be irrigated with sewage, causing harm to the health of residents in the area. According to preliminary estimates, annual human health losses in the region amount to 2.2 billion to 2.7 billion yuan. Yellow River water pollution also brings about loss of water resources value, loss of urban water supply, and increases additional municipal investment in sewage treatment, with a total annual loss of nearly 6 billion yuan. Although there seems to be a lot of water on the earth, under today's economic and technological conditions, there are not many water resources available for human development and utilization. According to expert estimates, of the total 1.386 billion cubic kilometers of water resources on the earth, 96.7% of the water is concentrated in the ocean and is currently unusable. The total reserves of all fresh water resources on the continent only account for 3.3% of the water on the earth. 85% of this 3.3% is concentrated in the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland and in the uninhabited glaciers of high mountains. It is also difficult to utilize at this stage. The water resources on earth that can actually be developed and utilized by humans are mainly river runoff and underground fresh water. Groundwater accounts for 22.6% of the earth's total fresh water, accounting for 8,600 trillion tons. However, half of the groundwater resources are at a depth of less than 800 meters, making it difficult to exploit. Excessive exploitation of groundwater will cause many problems. Rivers and lakes account for 0.6% of the earth's total fresh water, accounting for 230 trillion tons. They are the main source of fresh water resources for plants, animals and humans on land. However, due to water pollution, the water resources that can be used in this part are decreasing sharply. . The amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is 0.03% of the earth's total fresh water, which is 13 trillion tons. It replenishes fresh water on the land in the form of rainfall. At present, only 40% of river runoff and underground fresh water can be exploited and utilized by humans. The multi-year average total precipitation in my country is 6.2 trillion m3. In addition to the direct utilization of soil water in natural ecosystems and artificial ecosystems, the multi-year average total water resources of surface water and groundwater that can be renewed through the water cycle is 2.8 trillion m3. The total amount of water resources ranks sixth in the world, second only to Brazil, the former Soviet Union, Canada, the United States and Indonesia. According to the 1997 census, my country's per capita total water resources is 2,200 m3. The per capita possession is only 1% of the world average, ranking 121st in the world, and is listed as one of the 12 water-poor countries in the world. With the development of industrial and agricultural production, my country's total social and economic water consumption increased by about a quarter from 1980 to 1999, from 443.7 billion cubic meters to 559.1 billion cubic meters. Among them, agricultural water accounts for 70%, industrial water accounts for 20%, and domestic water accounts for 10.1%.

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2) The situation facing my country’s water resources

a) The major water problems faced in the new century

The coordinated development of contemporary population, resources and environment has become a major strategic issue of common concern to the international community. China is a country with the largest population in the world, but a poor country with per capita freshwater resources. The amount of water resources available in my country, as well as the amount of water resources per capita and per mu, is extremely limited. The spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is seriously uneven, and the regional distribution is extremely different. This is the basic feature of my country's water shortage. At present, the water shortage problem has become a serious constraint on the sustainable development of the country's economic and social development. However, the amount of water resources available in our country is limited. Judging from the current situation, the per capita freshwater resources in the country are only 2,200 cubic meters. From a regional perspective, 81% of the total water resources are concentrated in the Yangtze River and its In the south, more than 40% of them are concentrated in the five southwest provinces. This is an innately determined water regime.

In terms of per capita freshwater resources, the difference between the highest per capita freshwater resources in the south and the lowest in the north can be ten times, and the difference in per capita freshwater resources in the west can be five or six hundred times higher than in the east. This is the fundamental reason for resource-based water shortage in northern my country. Although water resources are relatively abundant in the southern region, water quality-based water shortage is also quite serious due to water pollution. At present, the nationwide drought and water shortage are becoming more and more serious, and the water crisis in the northern region, especially, is no longer alarmist.

(1) Main disasters

In the 1990s, floods, droughts and water pollution occurred frequently in China, and the problems of too much water, little water, dirty water and deterioration of the water environment became more and more serious. .

(1) Flood disasters: The cumulative direct economic losses exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan, equivalent to approximately 1/5 of the fiscal revenue during the same period. The years when direct economic losses exceeded 100 billion yuan were 1994 (179.7 billion yuan) and 1995 (165.3 billion yuan); the years when direct economic losses exceeded 200 billion yuan were 1996 (220.8 billion yuan) and 1998 (268.4 billion yuan). ). The World Bank has estimated that China's annual flood losses exceed US$10 billion.

(2) Drought disaster: Due to insufficient water supply, the industrial output value is directly affected by 230 billion yuan every year. In normal years and drier years, the grain output is reduced by 10 to 25 billion kg (in normal years, such as 1996, the output is reduced by 10 billion kg). kg, in drier years, such as 1994 and 1995, the grain production was reduced by 25 billion kg), but in severe drought years, the grain production reduction was as high as nearly 50 billion kg (for example, in 1997, the drought in some northern areas lasted for more than 100 days, The lower reaches of the Yellow River experienced unprecedented droughts, with the number of days and length of the river being cut off hit a record high. This year, grain production was reduced by 47.6 billion kilograms due to drought, and the losses to grain production were the most severe since the founding of the People's Republic of China). The World Bank has estimated that the annual losses caused by drought and water shortage in China are approximately US$35 billion.

(3) Water environment: First, water and soil erosion. Regional and local control has achieved great results. However, the surface water and soil erosion control process is slow, and the phenomenon of treating and destroying at the same time is still very serious. In particular, development and construction projects have caused a sharp increase in new water and soil erosion. The national average annual water and soil erosion due to development and construction activities reaches 10,000 square kilometers, and about 3 billion tons of waste soil and rocks are accumulated every year, 20% of which flows into rivers, directly affecting flood control and security. Second, water pollution is serious. Due to the sharp increase in industrial wastewater discharge, which is directly discharged into rivers without treatment, the water environment has deteriorated, represented by the pollution of the Huaihe River and Taihu Lake. The China Environmental Report published by the World Bank estimates that China’s annual losses from water and air pollution alone are US$54 billion, accounting for 8% of China’s annual GDP. This shows that the quality of the water environment continues to deteriorate, causing huge economic losses.

The total annual economic losses from the above three major disasters amount to US$100 billion, accounting for about 15% of the country’s annual GDP. Judging from the losses from these three major disasters, the shortage of water resources and the deterioration of the water environment will become the main contradictions in these three major disasters in the 21st century.

(2) Main contradictions

1. The water shortage situation is severe

Over the past fifty years, the national water resources development and utilization rate has reached 21%. Especially in the past 20 years, due to the slow growth of water supply capacity, the annual growth rate of national water supply capacity from 1978 to 1998 was about 1%, while the national economy grew at a high rate of 8 to 12% during the same period, and the population increased by about 250 million during the same period. , further exacerbating the water shortage conflict. It is worth noting that due to the influence of human activities, the relationship between rainfall and runoff, runoff generation and confluence conditions are changing, and the natural water inflow of some rivers has shown a declining trend. Frequent flow cuts occurred in the lower reaches of the Yellow River, the Haihe River became a seasonal river, and some inland rivers dried up. The drought that occurred in 2000 caused serious economic losses, fully exposing the vulnerability of my country's urban water supply system and rural drought resistance. It is a key factor in the supply and demand of water resources. A concentrated expression of contradictions.

At present, the country's annual water shortage is nearly 40 billion cubic meters, of which agriculture is short of more than 30 billion cubic meters of water every year. On average, more than 400 million acres of cultivated land are affected by drought every year, and the average annual grain production is reduced by more than 200 million cubic meters. billion kilograms; urban and industrial water shortages are 6 billion cubic meters annually, directly affecting more than 230 billion yuan in industrial output value; more than 24 million people in rural areas still have difficulty drinking water; among the 668 cities in the country, more than 400 are short of water, of which more than 100 The seat is seriously short of water. Tianjin has been affected by drought in North China for four consecutive years. The water level of the Panjiakou Reservoir that supplies Tianjin is close to its dead capacity. The Yuqiao Reservoir has no water supply, which directly threatens Tianjin's domestic and production water. Despite a series of water restrictions, measures, but it is still difficult to guarantee water sources this winter and next spring. To this end, the State Council approved the implementation plan of the "Diversion of Yellow River to Tianjin" emergency water transfer project formulated by the Ministry of Water Resources.

In the 21st century, as my country's population grows, the quality of life improves, and the urbanization process accelerates, the per capita water resources will further decrease, while water consumption will further increase, and the contradiction between water supply and demand will become more prominent. , water shortage has become the primary constraint affecting my country's food security, economic development, social stability and ecological environment improvement.

To maintain the safety of the ecological environment

2. Water has become a serious issue to maintain the safety of the ecological environment

The existing soil erosion area in the country is 3.67 million square kilometers, accounting for 38% of the land area, of which The water erosion area is 1.79 million square kilometers, and the wind erosion area is 1.88 million square kilometers. Among them, water and soil erosion is the most serious in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River, the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and the upper reaches of the Hai River. Severe water and soil erosion causes my country to lose an average of more than 1 million acres of cultivated land and more than 5 billion tons of soil every year, leading to the deterioration of the ecological environment, siltation of rivers and lakes, and exacerbating floods, droughts, and sandstorm disasters. my country's fragile natural ecology, coupled with irrational human activities, has further aggravated soil erosion, land degradation and water pollution.

Due to long-term overexploitation of groundwater across the country and the inability to replenish it, the current annual overexploitation amount reaches more than 8 billion cubic meters, which has formed 56 regional funnels for declining groundwater levels, resulting in land subsidence and Seawater intrusion. Due to unreasonable development and utilization of water resources in some arid and semi-arid areas, downstream rivers have been cut off, rivers and lakes have shrunk, some downstream tailpipes and lakes have disappeared, the ecological environment has seriously deteriorated, and Populus euphratica forests have died in large areas; pastures have degraded, desertification has intensified, and sandstorms have The frequency of occurrence has increased; in addition, in some irrigation areas and oases, due to flooding and poor drainage, severe secondary salinization of soil has resulted, land quality has declined, and agricultural production capacity has declined.

In 1999, the total annual wastewater discharge nationwide was 60.6 billion tons (excluding thermal power DC cooling water), of which industrial wastewater accounted for 67% and domestic sewage accounted for 33%. According to the 1999 water quality monitoring data, the evaluation results of the 113,600 kilometers of rivers across the country showed that only 30% of the river lengths were Category I and ‖ water, and 70% were rivers with Category III water or above (of which 5.5% were Category I water rivers) %, ‖ Class Ⅴ water accounted for 24.5%, Class Ⅲ water accounted for 32.4%, Class Ⅳ water accounted for 12..6%, Class Ⅴ water accounted for 7.8%, and rivers inferior to Class Ⅴ water accounted for 17.2%. ).

b) Ten major challenges

Comrade Deng Xiaoping pointed out: "We must be good at looking at problems strategically and study the development strategies and plans for the first fifty years of the next century. Take effective steps to Make our development sustainable and sustainable. "Water conservancy development is facing severe challenges. We must seize the opportunity to meet the challenges and regard water conservancy construction as a major strategic measure to ensure sustainable economic and social development.

(1) Population growth peaked and per capita water resources dropped to a trough. What we are facing is a huge population base. If population growth reaches its peak in 2030 and the total population reaches 1.6 billion, per capita water resources will drop to 1,750 cubic meters. The growth of population not only increases the demand for water, but also increases the pressure on resources and the ecological environment, which will have negative impacts on the effective use of water. Therefore, the growth of China's population in the next 50 years will be the biggest challenge to water resources and water environment, and also the biggest challenge to sustainable development.

(2) The contradiction between water supply and demand has become more acute, making development and utilization more difficult. China's total water resources are 2.8 trillion cubic meters. According to international assessment standards, experts believe that China's available water resources are approximately 1000-1100 billion cubic meters. In 1997, my country's total annual water consumption reached 562.3 billion cubic meter. In accordance with China's strategic goal of reaching the level of a moderately developed country by the middle of the 21st century, preliminary estimates indicate that my country's future water demand will reach 750-800 billion cubic meters, adding an additional 150-220 billion cubic meters of water supply capacity to the existing basis. In view of the imbalance of regional development, water sources that can be economically exploited are not only subject to regional restrictions, but also the development and utilization of water resources are becoming more and more difficult. Therefore, the development and utilization of water resources in China will be more difficult in the future, and the contradiction between supply and demand will It will be sharper.

(3) Rapid economic growth will lead to a sharp increase in waste and sewage discharge. In the next 50 years, this development trend will pose challenges to the construction of water supply infrastructure. Based on the current low level of treatment and recycling of waste sewage, if industrial water use doubles, urbanization levels double, and small towns develop rapidly in the next 50 years, the amount of waste sewage discharged will be several times, or even more than ten times. The increase will inevitably aggravate the deterioration of the water environment. Therefore, China will face tremendous pressure to solve water shortages, wastewater treatment, and water environment management.

(4) Due to the impact of global climate change, water shortages in the north have become more acute, and floods in the south may become more severe. At present, global climate warming, ozone layer destruction, land degradation, desertification, sea level rise, resource shortage, etc. will cause a series of global environmental problems, which have attracted worldwide attention. Global climate warming will inevitably have an impact on China's precipitation, water resources, regional distribution and availability, especially in the northern region. Therefore, it can be predicted that in the next 50 years, the task of preventing and controlling flood and drought disasters will become more arduous, and the water shortage problem in the northern region will become more acute.

(5) The water shortage situation in the northern region is severe, and the flow of rivers in the Yellow River and areas north of it has intensified. Water shortage in northern China is gradually increasing with population, economic and social development. The Yellow River's drying up and urban water shortage in Tianjin are concentrated manifestations of the contradiction between water supply and demand in the northern region.

Although there are many reasons for the Yellow River's drying up, the main factors are the rapid increase in water consumption caused by economic development, poor management and water waste, as well as factors such as water diversion from outside the region. Experts analyze that in the next 10-30 years, the Yellow River will be short of 4-15 billion m3 of water every year. If the frequency of droughts in the Yellow River Basin increases in the next 50 years, and the amount of sedimentation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River increases, it may aggravate water shortages and The difficulty of treating yellowing. The Haihe River Basin immediately north of the Yellow River, especially the two major cities of Beijing and Tianjin, experienced a water crisis as early as the 1970s and 1980s. In the 21st century, if we cannot take precautions against water shortages in the north, the water shortage problem in northern my country will directly affect the country's economic development and social stability.

(6) Grain growth is mainly in the north, and the mismatch between grain-producing areas and water resources has become more acute. In Chinese history, water conservancy is closely related to the formation and transfer of economic zones. During the Tang Dynasty, the main economic zone was in the north. At that time, the number of water conservancy facilities accounted for 41% of the country. In the Song Dynasty, the main economic zone moved to the south, and water conservancy construction in the north was ignored. , at this time, the number of water conservancy facilities only accounted for 7%. By the Qing Dynasty, the north had become the political and economic center, and the number of water conservancy facilities had increased to 49% of the country.

After the founding of New China, my country's grain production was mainly in the south, and a "south-to-north grain transportation" pattern was formed. However, with the development of the southern economy, the comparative efficiency of grain production has declined, water conservancy construction has been reduced, and grain growth has mainly shifted to the north. The mismatch between grain-producing areas and water resources has become more acute, leading to more severe droughts in the north. Before 1985, the proportion of total grain production in the region south of the Yangtze River in China was slightly higher than the proportion of population in the country. The population in the southern region accounted for 57.1-57.8% of the country's total population, and grain production accounted for 57.1-57.8% of the country's total population. 57.2-61.5% of the country's total grain output. In the 1950s, 1960s, and early 1970s, the south was more than self-sufficient in grain at a low consumption level, and the surplus grain was transferred to the north. From 1953 to 1959, the average annual net transfer of grain from the south to the north was 3.3297 million yuan. tons. From 1960 to 1969, the average annual net transfer of grain to the north was 1.7454 million tons. From 1970 to 1975, the average annual net transfer of grain to the north was 1.9282 million tons, thus forming a pattern of "south-to-north grain transfer".

Due to economic development, the comparative efficiency of grain production in the south has declined, and farmland water conservancy construction has been significantly slower than in the north. In 1998, the effective irrigated area in the southern region was 359.78 million acres, an increase of only 16.79 million acres or 4.9% compared with 1980. Among them, the southeast coastal area also decreased by 9.12 million acres, a decrease of 12.4%. The effective irrigated area in the northern region increased from 309.79 million acres to 405.54 million acres, an increase of 95.75 million acres, an increase of 30.9%. Among them, the effective irrigated area in the northeastern region increased from 32.42 million acres to 65.33 million acres, an increase of 32.91 million acres, an increase of 30.9%. More than double. The irrigated area in Menning New District and North China has also increased significantly.

With the slowdown of farmland water conservancy construction in the south and the reduction of grain sown area, the contribution rate of grain production in the country has been significantly reduced. Table 8-17 lists the changes in the contribution rate of the north and the south to the increase in my country's total grain production around 1985. From 1952 to 1985, the south accounted for 61.4% of the increase in grain production in my country, and the north accounted for 38.4%. After 1985, the regional pattern of grain production has undergone a huge reversal. The incremental proportion of grain production in the northern region has risen to 69.4%, of which North China accounts for 25%, while the incremental grain production in the south has dropped to 30.6%. Among the country's total grain output, the northern region's share increased from 40.7% in 1985 to 48.4%, while the southern region's share dropped from 59.3% to 51.6%. Per capita grain possessions increased from 349 kilograms in 1985 to 484 kilograms in 1998 in the north, an increase of 38.7%; while in the south it only increased from 372 kilograms to 377 kilograms, with almost no increase.

With the slowdown of food production in the south, the total food supply in the south has been insufficient. According to research by the Rural Economic Department of the State Planning Commission and the Agricultural Survey Corps of the National Bureau of Statistics, the average grain self-sufficiency rate in the South was over 100% from 1978 to 1990. From 1991 to 1994, the average grain self-sufficiency rate dropped to 95.2%. In 1997, the South's grain self-sufficiency rate dropped again to 95.9%, and more than 14 million tons of grain need to be transported from the north every year. The regional pattern of grain production and marketing has been reversed to "grain transportation from the north to the south." This drastic change in the pattern will have a serious impact on the growth of total grain production in the next 50 years. At present, the contradiction of water shortage in the northern region is already very acute. If the pattern of total grain production does not change fundamentally in the next year, then the contradiction of water shortage in the north, especially in North China, will become even more acute in the future.

(7) The water conservancy project will enter a century-old period, and the task of consolidating and transforming it will be arduous. my country's water conservancy facilities are currently facing two major threats: First, the existing water conservancy infrastructure is facing a "crisis" of shrinking and aging; second, the project security, maintenance, renewal, and supporting tasks are huge, which is a problem left over from history. By the middle of the 21st century, these water conservancy infrastructure will gradually enter the century-old period. Due to various historical reasons, there was insufficient understanding of the laws of nature at that time, insufficient compliance with economic laws and basic construction procedures, and generally low design standards. In addition, emphasis was placed on the backbone but not on supporting facilities, and on construction and light on management.

Therefore, many water conservancy infrastructures have poor supporting facilities, large backlogs, aging equipment and disrepair, low management levels, and poor operating conditions. So far, they have not been able to fully exert their due benefits. If the existing water conservancy infrastructure cannot consolidate, improve and give full play to its benefits in the next 50 years, then the problems existing in the existing water conservancy infrastructure are likely to become the biggest constraints to economic and social development. Therefore, as water conservancy infrastructure gradually enters its century-old period, the task of consolidating and transforming it becomes increasingly arduous.

(8) The scientific and technological content and management quality are low, and the task of improving scientific and technological and management levels is arduous. From the current point of view, there is a big gap between my country's scientific and technological level and developed countries. Therefore, in the future, the improvement of water conservancy infrastructure efficiency and water resource utilization rate, as well as the alleviation of water shortage conflicts, all depend on the improvement of scientific and technological levels and management levels. In the field of water conservancy, the current contribution rate of water conservancy science and technology is only about 32%. The effective use of water and the application of water-saving technology have not attracted high attention. In the guiding ideology of water conservancy construction, emphasis is placed on construction and neglect of management. The management organization is not sound and management The quality of personnel is generally low. Therefore, in the 21st century, the task of relying on scientific and technological progress to improve the level of water conservancy science and technology and the quality of management personnel is very urgent and arduous.

(9) Water prices are too low, and there is a long way to go to establish a water market economic system. The current low water prices are not conducive to water conservation and effective utilization of water resources, and are not conducive to all aspects of capital investment in the development and utilization of water resources. Domestic and foreign experience shows that increasing water supply prices can promote water conservation and extend the service life of projects. Therefore, formulating economic policies that are conducive to the sustainable use of water resources is crucial to alleviating the contradiction between water supply and demand. For more than 30 years, the documents issued by the state on water fee collection and water price reform have not yet been fully implemented. A very important reason is that people lack understanding of water, let alone the awareness that water is a commodity. In addition, agriculture has always been a large user of water, and it is more difficult to rely on the market economy to regulate it. Therefore, overall, the task of establishing a water market system is very arduous.

(10) The fragmentation of management systems affects the unified management of water resources. Practice shows that water conservancy involves agriculture, industry, water transportation, urban construction, ecological environment, and people's health level, etc.; water resources utilization involves flood control, drainage, irrigation, hydropower, water supply, etc.; water conservancy is an integral part of the national economy and society. Developing infrastructure comes first. However, for a long time, whether in terms of ideological understanding or economic system, water conservancy has only been regarded as an important aspect of agriculture and has not been treated as an infrastructure of the national economy. The current management system of water resources divided into regions and departments is not conducive to the effective utilization of water resources and the development of productivity.

Therefore, the era of "multiple dragons managing water" should end as soon as possible. Now