Isn't Bitcoin suitable for China's investment environment?

Recently, there was a news, "Overseas acquisition of football clubs to transfer assets?" The central bank publicized it twice, and the article pointed to some consortia in China, saying:

When the capital outflow from China is serious, it also happens to be a hot period for China enterprises to "go out to sea" for mergers and acquisitions. According to the statistics of Dealogic, the overseas M&A scale of China enterprises was 1005 billion US dollars in 20 15, and reached 226.6 billion US dollars in 20 16. Judging from the number of overseas mergers and acquisitions, there were 595 in 20 15 and 793 in 20 16.

It can be seen that the speed of overseas investment and mergers and acquisitions of China enterprises has obviously accelerated, so what is the attitude of relevant parties? The article quoted Pan, deputy governor of the central bank and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as saying: "... there are many enterprises with high debt ratio at home, and then borrow a large sum of money to buy overseas. Some are purely fake and transfer assets under the packaging of direct investment. "

This is a harsh sentence, and the tone can't help but remind people of an online article "Don't let Li Ka-shing get away" circulated in the past two years, and some doubts faced by Fuyao Glass Cao in investing and building a factory in the United States.

Just a few years ago, our public opinion was still encouraging enterprises to go abroad, and the acquisition of foreign companies almost became a national hero like Huo Yuanjia who defeated foreign giants.

In fact, the flow of capital and the merger and acquisition of enterprises are normal things in the commercial society. However, we attach too much emotion to simple business behavior, which makes us irrational in the face of many market behaviors, which will undoubtedly interfere with our decision-making and further affect the market environment.

Then, why did the former "national hero" become today's "eating inside and picking outside"? Obviously, in the current downturn of the real economy, a large amount of capital has accelerated to flow abroad, causing panic.

As can be seen from the above figure, China's attraction to foreign investment is declining year by year, while foreign direct investment is growing rapidly, and it exceeded the amount of foreign investment in one fell swoop in 20 16, and judging from this momentum, the gap between the two will widen.

In the future, China will change from the former capital inflow country to the capital outflow country. This is a new topic for regulators and market participants: hot money is getting less and less, and the capital winter has just begun.

There are many reasons for this situation, both macro and micro, and there are many professional discussions. The key is, since the situation has been formed, how can we resolve this situation, or what can we do under this situation?

At least for now, the relevant departments are not idle. In 2065438+06110, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) issued a new foreign exchange control policy. Remittance abroad needs to go through complicated approval procedures. The China-based European Chamber of Commerce said that the payment difficulties encountered by European enterprises "disrupted business operations".

A European company in Shanghai was stuck in paying dividends of several hundred million yuan, and a European company in a city in the south of China was told that it would take more time to get approval to pay 900 million yuan (65,438+0.31billion US dollars). Another company located in the southwest of China was asked to provide a detailed payment plan for a dividend of 2 billion yuan. The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China says this is unusual. Two weeks ago, this kind of dividend payment was common.

China Economic Information Daily reported on March 2 1 that the first overseas investment regulation may be issued this year to guide the investment direction, encourage overseas investment in line with the "Belt and Road" strategy, and strengthen the supervision of "blind and irrational" overseas investment. The report quoted insiders as saying that overseas investment will be encouraged and prohibited.

These two things, perhaps because I am not tall enough, always feel inappropriate. From the first thing of foreign exchange control, in terms of capital, we can only talk about entry if we solve the exit problem; When normal dividends are disturbed, it will inevitably affect the determination and confidence of these enterprises to increase investment.

And guide the direction of investment, investment is a market behavior, you encourage it, if you lose, can you compensate for the loss? If what you prohibit is profitable, don't let domestic capital do it, isn't it binding your hands and feet? Will regulators know the market better than investors and be related to their immediate interests?

In fact, since the deterioration of the domestic investment environment has become a fact, just as we have formed a cost highland, capital is like water, and blind blocking will only increase risks and not solve problems. The key is how to improve our investment environment.

Cao talked about the cost comparison between China and the United States. Zong mentioned that Wahaha paid more than 500 kinds of expenses and more than 40 million yuan. Obviously, the cost of traditional manufacturing enterprises has reached an unbearable weight, which forces the older generation of private entrepreneurs who are used to "focusing on getting rich" to speak out. Since 20 13, the country has been reducing arbitrary charges, but in the specific implementation, how to deal with the conflict of interests between some departments in the process of creating a good business environment is a realistic problem.

In addition, the soaring real estate prices have caused a crowding-out effect on the real economy. For example, this picture forwarded by the group:

There are also some very realistic paragraphs about entrepreneurs in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Ten years later, they used the money they earned to pay the down payment of the original suite. Capital is profit-seeking. If you can't make money in the domestic real economy, or the money you earn is far less than real estate speculation or overseas investment, everyone will naturally vote with their feet.

The Report 20 15 on Overseas Sustainable Development of Enterprises in China jointly issued by the Research Center of State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce shows that only 13% of enterprises "going abroad" in China have considerable profits, and 24% are in a state of flat and loss. I don't know if there is any corresponding research data in China, but judging from the entrepreneurial situation I have been in contact with for many years, it is far from reaching the proportion of "13% of enterprises have considerable profits"!

If investors want to stay in China and stay in the industry, it is the key to improve the survival rate and profit rate of the industry. This must include but not limited to: reducing taxes, speeding up decentralization, reducing or even canceling various administrative fees, supporting industrial upgrading, strengthening the protection of private property, maintaining a fair market environment, reducing the proportion of infrastructure and real estate in the economy, and reducing administrative intervention in market activities. ...

There are too many things to do. Rome was not built in a day, and the problem cannot be solved overnight. But what should be done is always done, just like improving your sexual ability. Strengthening exercise is the fundamental and long-term effective method to solve the problem. If you are eager for success and eat all kinds of aphrodisiacs indiscriminately, it will only add insult to injury and quench your thirst.

Well, we ordinary people may have no choice in the big environment, so, from a personal point of view, under the current circumstances, we should be cautious in investing. Whether it is industry or real estate, industry should invest with good cash flow and real estate should be easy to realize. A few years ago, everyone said that cash was king. Now it seems that the depreciation of cash is accelerating, and money will become less and less valuable. Reliable investment channels are needed to combat devaluation. However, judging from the frequent incidents in the field of financial investment, more than 12% of investment and wealth management products are not safe. There is a saying on the internet that "you are calculating interest, and others are calculating your principal"; As for overseas investment, we should pay attention to the corresponding policy restrictions and the tax and legal risks of the host country.

Most importantly, rivers and lakes are far away, so let's work hard.