The epidemic accelerated the migration of American population, with the largest outflow from San Francisco.

The COVID-19 epidemic has accelerated the change of American living place and way.

According to the data of the US Postal Service, in 2020, the company received about 30 million application forms for address change. Compared with 20 19, the permanent immigration record of Americans increased by 7% in 2020. In the last four months of 2020, the year-on-year growth rate exceeded 10%, even reaching the peak of 28% in 65438+February.

Where have all the Americans gone? According to American media analysis, because the epidemic situation allows people to work remotely more flexibly, many people leave the metropolis and choose to move to places with lower density and lower cost. According to the survey data released by the U.S. Census Bureau in April, the population in the southern States of the United States has increased nationwide, especially in Florida and Texas, while the number of families in the northeastern States has decreased.

The report sent by BCA Research, an investment consulting firm, to the First Financial Reporter shows that due to the increase of internal population mobility, residential investment will continue to be an important source of cyclical expenditure in the US economy. Driven by the surge in the flow of potential buyers, the US NAHB real estate market index soared to a record high.

Liu Yongtao, a professor at the American Studies Center of Fudan University, said in an interview with China Business News that demographic changes within the United States will also affect its political election map. "After the results of the census are announced, some states' seats in the Senate will be redistributed. For example, Texas and Florida, two state-led and party-led States, have added several seats. " Liu Yongtao said, "But on the other hand, we need to observe these people who flow into Texas or Florida to see if they are biased towards Democrats or Republicans. "

Where did the Americans move?

According to the data of the post office, San Francisco recorded the largest decline in immigration, with the number of outflows doubling from the previous year, and the family losses in Los Angeles also increased by 58%. According to the analysis, this is because California's high cost and high tax environment are overwhelming, and some residents go straight to Las Vegas and Phoenix.

In big cities such as new york, Seattle, Portland, Chicago and Boston, hundreds of thousands more residents have moved out than moved in. In 2020, new york lost about10.5 million families due to immigration, more than any other state and twice the previous year. Fewer and fewer people arrive in Manhattan. Every time a new family moves in, three families leave.

Many families went to warm areas in the south and southwest, including Florida, Texas and Arizona. Generally speaking, the number of new immigrants in the southern States has increased the most. For example, many new york residents seeking low tax rates and relaxed lifestyles are accepted by Florida. Florida attracts more immigrants from new york (23,000 people) than New Jersey. According to the analysis of the location changes of user data from June 2020 1 1 to April this year by professional website LinkedIn, compared with the same period last year, a large number of workers moved to this area due to the large space and low cost in some cities in Florida, such as Jacksonville and Salt Lake City.

However, the growth of small and medium-sized cities has not sounded the death knell for super cities. Many people who leave big cities choose to move to the suburbs around big cities. The number of new families in the suburbs of big cities exceeds the sum of small towns. In 2020, the number of suburban families added by immigrants increased by 43% over the previous year.

For example, the influx of people from new york led to a real estate boom in several suburbs of New Jersey. The suburbs around Dallas, Indianapolis, Indiana, Nashville, Tennessee and Charlotte, North Carolina also showed population expansion.

Are most of the migrating troops rich? Stephan Whitaker, a policy economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, USA, analyzed the data of credit records and found that before the outbreak, most of the communities where people moved out were those with incomes below the median, not those with incomes above the median. This situation reversed in 2020, and many residents lost their lives in richer communities.

Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and forecasting director of the National Association of Realtors, said that among the baby boomers born after World War II, some people accelerated their migration to retirement destinations during the epidemic, although they were not old enough to retire because they expected to work remotely for several years before they retired completely. In addition, the epidemic has also accelerated the retirement schedule of some people.

Whitaker's analysis also found that in communities with more death records in COVID-19, and communities that allow telecommuting, the degree of population outflow is greater.

Population migration, who wins and who loses?

A large number of residents in metropolitan areas have moved to the suburbs, and companies interested in cutting expenses and retaining talents have also planned or opened offices in the suburbs. This trend is having a huge financial impact.

According to American media reports, due to population loss, some super cities will lose billions of dollars in property tax revenue every year, and real estate rents are also falling at a double-digit rate. For example, due to the decline in the value of office buildings and hotels, new york's property tax revenue in the next fiscal year is expected to decrease by $2.5 billion compared with the previous forecast, which is the largest decline since 1996. According to the data of StreetEasy, the median asking price and rent of Manhattan apartments decreased by 2 1% in March this year compared with the same period last year.

In those areas with net population inflow, the real estate market is particularly hot. In 2020, the number of families in New Jersey increased due to immigration more than doubled from the previous year. In 2020, the number of families moving out of new york rose to more than 35,000, an increase of 76% over the previous year.

Bergen County, New Jersey is just across the river from Manhattan. The number of new immigrant families attracted by this county is three times that of the previous year. James Tedesco, the chief executive of Bergen County, said that in 2020, the county issued about 1 150 building permits for single-family houses, a sharp increase of 43% over the previous year, the largest number of permits issued in more than a decade. Bergen county plans to start building a residential project with nearly 100 houses as early as this spring. Joseph Tamburo, vice president of Coldwell Banker's office in Fort Lee, New Jersey, said, "We have received 50 or 60 offers to buy houses."

According to the report of BCA Research Company, for families living in big city centers such as new york or San Francisco, these homeowners may see their real estate devalued due to demographic changes caused by the epidemic. But for the vast majority of homeowners living in sub-centers or suburbs of cities, they will benefit from the internal population mobility in the United States. Therefore, most homeowners may find that their net assets have increased, which will help them spend in the next 12 to 18 months. These incentives will continue to support cyclical stocks, and in the future, even for the troubled financial industry will be good.