How many years after the birth rate of blacks in the United States exceeded that of whites, can the United States become the second South Africa?

It is neither white nor black who will dominate the United States in the future: whether in the media or in various film and television dramas, the American society we come into contact with seems to be black or white, as if it is black except white. In fact, this is just a superficial illusion, or a misjudgment that we don't understand the racial structure of the United States!

The population of the United States is complete, including at least seven different ethnic groups, including non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans, Asians, hybrids, American Indians and Alaska aborigines, Hawaiian aborigines or other Pacific islanders! However, both the American history mentioned in our childhood textbooks and the introduction in the media now seem to introduce more whites and blacks, so many people think that American society is a society in which blacks or whites dominate the world. In fact, on the contrary, the future of the United States will be Hispanic:

1970, when China established diplomatic relations with the United States, the United States was 83.5% pure white,11%black, and Latino was only 4.4%. In 20 10, it became 63.7% pure white people, and the black people did not change much: 12.6%, and the largest one was Hispanic, reaching 16.3%. It is estimated that by 2025, the number of white Americans will further drop to 46.6%. Hispanics rose to 28%. So it can be seen from the above figures that the rising trend of Hispanic population is very fierce. If this trend continues, it won't be long before the United States will become the world of Hispanics!

According to the data of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the number of births in the United States dropped by 2% from 20 17 to 20 18, the lowest in 32 years. The reason for the decline in fertility rate is that more and more people have been crushed by the decline of American economic status, including the rising cost of living! But specific to different races, the fertility rate is still different:

As can be seen from the following figure, the fertility rate of white blacks in the United States is basically the same, while the fertility rate of Hispanics is only 2. 18, which is the only race that exceeds 2 among all races! Moreover, from the average age, Hispanics are also at the best age to give birth, so it is almost certain that the birth rate of Hispanics will be far ahead for a long time to come!

The American economy continues to be in a downturn, the unemployment rate is rising, and the deep-rooted racial discrimination in American society will objectively suppress the desire of black people to have children. If they live in poverty and the cost of living is so high, they feel that they are not born, then this is the fundamental reason why the fertility rate of African blacks is high and that of American blacks is relatively low all over the world! Oranges are born in Huainan and oranges are born in Huaibei. Different social conditions will definitely have a lasting impact on the fertility rate!

Based on the above analysis, it can be predicted that blacks will have a chance to surpass whites in the future, but even if they surpass whites, they will lag far behind the number of Hispanics. Therefore, it can be said that in a long historical period, it is almost impossible to conclude that there will be a dominant phenomenon of black groups in the United States! Moreover, with the intermarriage and integration between races, the most likely trend of American society in the future is that mixed-race will become the mainstream and other races will develop steadily.