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The American economy has experienced nearly two and a half years of recession and weakness, followed by the global economy. 1 1 day or so, the US stock market hit a new low, with the Dow hitting a four-year low and Nasdaq hitting a six-year low. The announcement issued by the Federal Reserve Board at the same time shows that the US economy is still in danger of weakness. According to the World Economic Outlook published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the risk of global economic downturn has increased, but at the same time, the global economy is still slowly recovering from the worldwide recession. ……

When will the American economy come out of recession? Will the global economy always follow? Where will economic recovery reappear? What is the locomotive of contemporary economic development?

From the analysis of this paper, we can see that due to the development and popularization of information network, knowledge-intensive industries will undergo a century-long migration like labor-intensive industries in the last century. The United States will be at a disadvantage in this migration. China and other developing countries are facing unprecedented opportunities.

Cost economy+network age = transfer of knowledge production base

In the rising economic situation, especially in the era of excessive expectations for the new economy at the end of the 20th century, wealth can produce fission reaction like an atomic bomb, and technological innovation becomes the locomotive of economic development. In the period of stable economic adjustment, the market demand is growing slowly or even declining reversely, and the importance of reducing costs is greatly improved. The American economy will enter a "cost economy" period of pursuing lower costs in such a market with relatively stable demand or slow growth.

The value creation in modern society is increasingly focused on the creation and production of knowledge and technology. Since modern times, especially in the last 20 years, the strong development and prosperity of American economy has mainly benefited from its excellent knowledge production capacity. The high labor productivity represented by knowledge (technology) intensive production has further improved the international competitiveness of the United States, further widened the gap between the rich and the poor with underdeveloped countries, and the United States has also become a gathering place for talents and values.

However, the emergence of the network has quietly changed this geographical advantage. With the rapid development of information technology and high-speed information network, the production of knowledge is greatly separated from the dependence on physical regions. Knowledge-intensive production does not require people to work in one place. The development of network in video transmission, virtual conference, collaborative office and virtual community has completely virtualized the complete real world. With the popularization of advanced broadband applications, people's communication, communication and work on the Internet have become almost the same as those in the real society, and actually have greater advantages. The cultivation, study and education of talents can also be conveniently completed on a global scale through the Internet.

The social cost in America is the highest in the world. In terms of per capita income, the United States is 10 to 40 times higher than most developing countries. Whether it is manpower, real estate or tax burden, the United States has become the region with the highest cost of production and living in the world. In an environment supported by a complete information network, people can work from home. Why should they stay in the United States?

In the last century, the United States experienced the migration of labor-intensive industries overseas. In this century, with the support of modern information tools, the United States will once again experience knowledge production and large-scale migration of knowledge-intensive industries overseas. The destination of migration will be other areas with relatively low social cost, rich high-quality human resources, perfect network environment and relatively good living environment. Asia will be such a suitable landing site.

It is precisely the information superhighway and Internet-the products that pushed the United States to the economic peak at the end of last century-that will be the main reasons why the United States has experienced a considerable period of unfavorable situation in this century.

The United States is no longer the vane of the world economy.

Talents, in the case of flat or reduced salary, will choose an environment with lower living costs; Enterprises will move to areas with lower production costs. And capital is free to flow, and it will be transferred to a new value production place at any time. Capital flight will further reduce domestic employment opportunities, and the United States will face a deeper employment crisis. The shortage of job opportunities and the declining value of movable property and real estate may even lead to reverse immigration in the United States.

Is the U.S. economy persistently weak because of the Internet bubble, the telecom bubble, the unfavorable supervision of the Federal Reserve, the 9 1 1 attack or the cost bomb? When value production no longer depends on the land where it is located, the region loses its original value. The United States will be regarded as the production environment with the highest production cost in the world and abandoned by people. Just as the old industry almost lost its value because of technological innovation, the value of this land in the United States will lose its original aura because of the emergence of the virtual society created by the information network.

Silicon Valley will be the concentrated expression of this transformation. First of all, while all companies are laying off employees and cutting budgets, many companies and talents will consider moving out of Silicon Valley and choosing other lower-cost areas in the United States, and will also consider choosing overseas. In the rising process of Silicon Valley's development, its social costs in all aspects are gradually rising from a low level, which is consistent with the development process of the region from ordinary to brilliant. However, when Silicon Valley is facing the dilemma of economic contraction, it is difficult for its social cost to return to the original low level.

If the United States wants to become a competitive region again, its social costs, such as labor costs, real estate, etc., must be reduced to the level comparable to other low-cost regions, which ultimately means that the wealth of the United States has shrunk dramatically, which is even worse for an economy that lacks new growth. The interest rate of the Federal Reserve can no longer effectively stimulate the development of the domestic economy in the United States. Most of the stimulated investment will be invested outside the United States, and foreign investment will also be transferred. The measures taken by the government, such as government procurement and tax reduction, are difficult to play a significant role.

We are used to taking the American economy as the vane of the world economy. However, this weather vane has gradually lost its original energy and become an exporter of capital, technology and talents. The real production base will be moved to a new area. This is a special economic situation and a new pattern. It seems inevitable that the United States will experience a period of recession, but the global economy does not seem to follow. The development of new production bases will become the driving force for the re-emergence of the global economy. There are many Americans in it, but it doesn't mean "America".

Europe and Japan have no special advantages in this transformation, because their costs are almost as high as those in the United States. In fact, they will face almost the same problems and difficulties as the United States. Asia outside Japan may become a new production base. At present, the sustained economic growth in China has formed a huge contrast with the unfavorable global economic situation, which reflects this pattern to some extent. In the next 10-20 years, a possible economic situation is that the western society represented by the United States will continue to be weak, while Asia will continue to revitalize.

The information age is an era of "knowledge-intensive industries"

At present, in China's theory and practice, labor-intensive industries are often understood as "manual labor" intensive industries, and at the same time they are juxtaposed with capital-intensive industries. In fact, labor-intensive industries include two distinct forms: physical-intensive industries and brain-intensive industries. According to the generally accepted understanding that "labor-intensive industry" is "physical-intensive industry" in this paper, "brain-intensive industry" is classified as "knowledge-intensive industry". "Knowledge-intensive" is actually very similar to what we usually call "technology-intensive industries", but it covers a wider range and has different characteristics. Whether capital is intensive or not can reflect the industrialization level and labor productivity in the industrial age. However, in the information age, this reflection has become indirect. Many important technological innovations are accomplished by a few creators under very limited conditions, even in their own "garages".

The industrial revolution has greatly improved social productive forces. Most manual labor has been replaced by machines, and the role of people has declined. Machines have become more important factors of production, which means that the role of capital has increased. During this period, labor production (including machines and people) characterized by physical strength and physical and mechanical movement still occupies the main body of value creation, such as the exploitation of natural resources, energy development, agricultural cultivation, rough machining and so on. Mental work characterized by knowledge creation and utilization is still in the subordinate position of value creation. However, people's contribution to the economy has begun to shift from physical strength to mental strength.

The information revolution has made social productive forces leap again, and knowledge and technology have been created and utilized in large quantities. The advancement of knowledge and technology has become the key feature of products. The role of people has risen again. The representative product is "knowledge product", and its value is reflected in the high added value of knowledge and technology. Just like the value of diamonds and gold, knowledge and technology have become scarce resources because of the system of intellectual property protection. If people want them, they have to pay a high price. The value of knowledge and technology depends only on the value it can achieve for users and the irreplaceable degree. Labor production characterized by physical strength and physical mechanical movement is still creating value, but its status and proportion have declined; However, the value creation of mental labor characterized by knowledge creation and utilization has risen rapidly and gradually become the main body of value creation.

The informatization level of a society or enterprise is reflected in the quantity and quality of knowledge producers, the conditions and efficiency of knowledge production, and the quantity and quality of intellectual property rights. Capital will still be an important resource, because a lot of knowledge creation still depends on large-scale experimental facilities and research and development conditions, but at the same time, more knowledge creation can be completed by creators under very limited conditions, such as using only one or two personal computers and the Internet. Western developed countries will continue to maintain certain advantages because of their huge research facilities and experimental conditions, but a lot of knowledge production and work can be provided and completed remotely by workers through the network.

Opportunities in China

At present, in order to solve the huge employment demand and analyze the comparative advantage, China takes the development of labor-intensive industries as the focus of industrial development. However, the development of the times makes us have to re-understand the situation.

Based on the previous analysis, when we re-examine the advantages of western developed countries, we can find that the advantages of developed countries have shifted from "capital-intensive industries" in the industrial age to "knowledge-intensive industries" in the information age. Of course, the whole society will not completely become a single production content and form, but can be divided into the proportion of industrialized characteristic production and information (or knowledge) characteristic production.

Traditional labor-intensive industries have the lowest labor productivity. And knowledge-intensive industries have the highest labor productivity. To solve the employment problem, we can rely on labor-intensive industries, but in order to improve the overall social welfare level and international competitiveness, pursuing knowledge-intensive industries is the shortcut and the only way for China. The production of traditional labor-intensive industries is easy to be copied, and it will always shift to areas with lower social costs. Our low-cost advantage will gradually decrease or even disappear with the rise of living standards. The value of knowledge-intensive production is protected by technical secrecy, transfer barriers and intellectual property rights, and it is difficult to be copied, which is precisely the main source of modern prosperity in western developed countries.

In the large-scale migration of traditional labor-intensive industries in the last century, China stood out among the developing China countries and established a strong advantage. Now, facing the large-scale migration of knowledge-intensive industries at the beginning of this century, China should recognize this huge opportunity and trend as soon as possible, and don't miss this century's opportunity. China already has and is cultivating huge human resources with advanced technology and knowledge, which can meet the demand of knowledge-intensive production. At the same time, a better investment environment in China will become an attractive choice for international companies to transfer their production bases. According to the Global Investment Report 200 1 issued by the United Nations on September 7, 2006, China has once again become the developing country receiving the most foreign direct investment. On September 24th, Kearney Company, an internationally renowned strategic consulting company, published the "Confidence Index of Foreign Direct Investment" obtained through a survey of 1000 CEOs of multinational companies and politicians of major western countries. The results show that China has replaced the United States as the most attractive destination for foreign direct investment for the first time. Among the top ten countries, except China (1) and Mexico (9). All these indicate that the investment environment in China has a good foundation.

How China can further improve the investment environment, establish a more reasonable industrial habitat, promote the healthier and deeper combination and liberation of the whole social resources, and improve the social service system and environment will have a decisive impact on China's performance in the great industrial migration in this century. In terms of cost, there are lower ones in the world than ours; In terms of talents, some fields have become more international; Systematically, some countries and regions are more experienced than us. As far as Asia is concerned, South Korea, Taiwan Province Province, Southeast Asian countries and India will all become our strong competitors. We must respond as soon as possible and go all out.

Millions of migrant workers build the brand of "Guang 'an Labor Service", transforming physical fitness into skills and extensive into intensive.

In the middle of winter, labor training in Guang 'an is busy. Labor cooperation departments and large enterprises in Shishi, Fujian, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Huizhou, Shenyang, Dalian and other places in Northeast China have come to Guang 'an to sign labor export agreements and employment contracts. Guangdong Huizhou Labor Export Office alone signed an employment cooperation agreement for 30,000 people. Lin Guoxi, director of shishi city Labor and Employment Management Office, told the reporter: Sichuan is rich in labor resources, and "Guang 'an Labor Service" is famous for its diligence and simplicity, and has won a good reputation in southern Fujian.

According to the data of the Municipal Labor Export Office, in 2004, the rural labor force in Guang 'an transferred and exported a total of 1.22 million, accounting for 60% of the total rural labor force, and the per capita of farmers reached1. Labor income reached 4.2 billion yuan, an increase of 457 million yuan or 65,438+00.65% over the previous year; The per capita labor income of farmers in the city is 1088 yuan, accounting for 45% of the per capita net income of farmers.

In 2004, the labor market in all parts of the country was very tight. Why is the labor service in Guang 'an so good? In response to a reporter's question, Peng Deqiu, deputy secretary of the Municipal Party Committee, said: "The key is to do a good job in changing labor resources from manual to skilled, from extensive to intensive labor management, and from decentralized to large-scale labor export."

Guang 'an is rich in labor resources and is a famous labor export city in Sichuan Province. The city's agricultural population is 3.98 million, the rural labor force is 265.438+million, and the surplus labor force is 1.5 million, but the labor force with certain technical expertise is only 220,000. In the fierce competition in the labor market, our city has taken effective measures to strategically adjust the labor structure in view of the contradiction between the saturation of low-end labor services and the serious shortage of high-end labor services. At the beginning of last year, the Municipal Party Committee and the Municipal Government made a decision to build a brand of "Guang 'an Labor Service", requiring party and government at all levels to regard labor service development as an important industry in rural economic development, and strive to build a platform of "government promotion, market operation, follow-up service and scientific management" in accordance with the idea of "integrating resources internally and building bases externally", so as to improve the marketization and organization of labor service export and change the long-standing "stragglers" of migrant workers in Guang 'an.

In order to build the brand of "Guang 'an Labor Service", * * * has been formed all over the city, starting with improving the character and skills of individual workers. Through the integration of educational resources, vocational training institutions have been set up, 137 various labor training bases have been established, and a four-level training network of city, county, township and village communities has been established, forming a benign mechanism of "village community mobilization, township organization, departmental linkage and piecemeal training" All training schools carry out professional ethics and laws and regulations education all the year round, and offer professional courses such as welding, maintenance, sewing and computer, with an annual training capacity of 200,000 person-times. Bundle the three major engineering training funds allocated by the central and provincial governments, namely, "sunshine project labor transfer, labor poverty alleviation and rural poor labor force", with special local financial funds, and subsidize migrant workers according to the training targets. Last year, the city directly invested 6 million yuan to subsidize the labor training of migrant workers. * * * 806 training projects were carried out and training courses were held 1996, with 243,500 trainees (times) and 8 1000 migrant workers with certificates, accounting for one third of the total number of trainees.

While paying close attention to labor training, cities, counties and townships have established three-level labor export intermediary organizations, established a standardized and efficient labor market information network, and established long-term labor cooperation and exchange relations with 2 1 labor cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Xinjiang, Shenzhen and Fuzhou. According to the requirements of marketization, scale and industrialization, leading enterprises are cultivated, large-scale construction projects in key cities and regions are docked, and organized and powerful labor export is formed, which makes "Guang 'an Labor Service" have a good influence in coastal Guangdong, Fujian and Northeast provinces. Last June, 36 well-known domestic enterprises from Shishi, Fujian jointly organized a large-scale job fair in Guang 'an, taking away 4,000 migrant workers from Linshui and Huaying. Xinjiang Construction Corps visited Vu Thang and Yuechi County in Guang 'an twice, and recruited more than 2,000 seasonal workers. Vu Thang Huaying Yuechi electric power construction, construction and installation companies and other enterprises have exported more than 30,000 workers. More than 700,000 person-times of labor export are organized in stages every year.

Wherever Guang 'an's labor force goes, it shows the excellent character of hard-working, honest and pragmatic, smart and capable, as well as the good quality of law-abiding, civilized and progressive, which is widely praised by employers. A large number of migrant workers have been reused and promoted, becoming the technical backbone and management talents of enterprises. After training, 200 migrant workers from Paifang Village, Xiaoping's hometown, were sent to work in a famous steel plant in Huaxi Village, Jiangsu Province. In just over a year, all of them became technical experts, 30% became team leaders, and 12 became administrators. Their monthly salary rose from 300 yuan to 2000 yuan. Recently, our city was invited to hold labor fairs in Northeast China and Guangdong, and signed nearly 50,000 labor export cooperation agreements. Huang Yebin, Mayor of Huizhou City, also said on the spot that they would give priority to recommending Guang 'an laborers to good enterprises and must safeguard their legitimate rights and interests. At present, 50,000 places in the city have all been divided into districts, counties and towns, and training has been actively organized in accordance with the employment direction of construction, Sichuan cuisine, sewing and housekeeping determined by the agreement, so as to ensure that the migrant workers transported meet the professional norms and skills requirements and all set off after the Spring Festival.