Composition topic of immigrant overpopulation

Schematic diagram of global population growth forecast

"The 7 billionth citizen will be born in a world full of contradictions. There is enough food in this world, but there are still countless people starving. " -Ban Ki-moon

According to the forecast of the United Nations, the world population will reach 7 billion at around 1 this year. At the same time, the world population growth is extremely uneven. The population growth in developed countries has stopped or slowed down, while the population growth in many developing countries is still very fast. Of the 78 million people added each year, a large part is distributed in some of the poorest countries.

At present, the fertility rate in developed countries is far below the replacement level. From 2005 to 20 10, the total fertility rate in developed countries has dropped to 1.6, of which 14 countries are below 1.3. In a stable population with an average childbearing age of 30, the total fertility rate of 1.3 means that the population size will decrease by 1.5% every year, and the population size will be halved after 45 years.

The situation in developing countries is completely different. According to the latest population forecast of the United Nations, by the end of this century, the world population will increase by about 3 billion, 97% of which will be distributed in developing countries.

Developed countries are less worried: the rich but aging population has increased the social burden.

On May 4, people waited for gas at a gas station in Sana 'a, the capital of Yemen. The rapidly growing population has brought about a sharp increase in the demand for resources. Xinhua News Agency reporter Yin Yushe (edited by Xie Haining)

The population problems faced by developed countries are low fertility level, slow population growth, declining birth rate and aging trend. This will not only bring about profound changes in family and social structure, but also affect economic and social development. At present, the countries with the most aging population are Italy and Japan, and the proportion of elderly people aged 65 and over exceeds19%; Followed by Greece, Germany, Spain and Sweden. On average, the proportion of the elderly population in developed countries has reached 15%, and it is expected that this proportion will double by 2050.

For a country, the aging population means that it needs to face new challenges and the whole society needs to adapt. With fewer children and more elderly people, the number of kindergartens will decrease, while the number of nursing homes will increase, and medical service institutions and facilities will definitely be more inclined to the elderly.

The aggravation of aging will also lead to the decrease of production efficiency, the difficulty of economic growth, the difficulty of personal income and national fiscal revenue growth, and the increase of expenditure related to aging, which will lead to the increasingly serious burden on families and society.

At present, in the developed countries with serious aging, the pension expenditure has accounted for about 10% of GDP, and the medical expenditure is as high as 10% of GDP. Some countries, such as the United States, even account for 15% of GDP. Generally speaking, aging countries need to spend one-fifth to one-quarter of their new wealth for providing for the aged every year, which is a heavy social burden.

When it is difficult to meet the pension expenditure by increasing taxes, we should either extend the retirement age or reduce the pension and medical treatment for the elderly. Either way means that the welfare of the elderly will be reduced, which will inevitably lead to the dissatisfaction of the elderly and even the whole society.

France's pension reform in 20 10 aimed at raising the legal retirement age triggered large-scale protests from workers. Japan's reform of trying to cut pension benefits has also caused heated debates at home, triggering social unrest. For many developed countries, the problem of providing for the aged is becoming the fuse of various social contradictions.

In order to cope with the aging, many developed countries have adopted policies to encourage fertility, but unfortunately, these policies have little effect. Therefore, many countries hope to ease the problem of population aging by relaxing immigration restrictions, thus forming a new wave of immigration, and western developed countries have become the main receiving places of immigrants in the world. Just as the migration tide in Europe has brought great influence to the world after the industrial revolution, the current migration from developing countries to developed countries will not only change the population structure and social structure of developed countries, but also have an important impact in the economic and political fields. Due to different cultural traditions, habits and values, there is the possibility of conflict or even confrontation between immigrants and indigenous residents. At the same time, how immigrants integrate into the local society and enjoy the same economic and social rights as locals is also a problem that must be faced and solved. (Zhang Chewei, Deputy Director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, China Academy of Social Sciences, Semimonthly Talk,No. 1 18)