What's the big move of Yang Ma?

On the last working day of 216, the sun was warm and the years were quiet. I thought we would usher in the New Year in peace. However, the tree wants to calm down, but the wind will not stop. Just now, the Bank of China officially promulgated the Measures for the Administration of Large-value Transactions and Suspicious Transaction Reports of Financial Institutions, which broke the calm of the market and caused a stir among the people. As I expected, the exchange quota of $5, has not decreased, but the era of relatively free capital flow that lasted for 22 years has ended and the era of capital control has arrived.

No matter how awkward and fancy the words are, the meaning of this policy is clear according to the cold-eyed understanding. In the past, each person had a foreign exchange purchase quota of $5, per year and a cash withdrawal quota of $1, per day, while the amount was full; After the introduction of this method, you can only exchange 5, RMB dollars and other foreign currencies every day, which is about 7,1 dollars according to the current exchange rate. If you exceed this amount, you must declare it. Therefore, in order to avoid declaration, many people will try to control the amount of money exchange within 71, which actually reduces the amount of foreign currency withdrawal and raises the threshold for cash withdrawal. If you have a criminal record and are listed as a reasonable suspect, the declaration is likely to be rejected. Even if you still have a foreign exchange purchase quota of $5,, you can't exchange cash. Everything is a routine.

of course, some people say that cash can't be exchanged, but I can exchange it for cash and remit it abroad. Soldiers will block, and the central bank already has corresponding tricks. After the introduction of this method, cross-border remittances of US$ 1, and equivalent foreign currencies need to be reported. Like the cash withdrawal declaration, there is of course the risk of being suspected and rejected. So if you have 5, dollars to remit abroad, you only need to remit it once before, but now you need to remit it at least five times, which objectively increases the cost and difficulty of remittance.

four major institutions, namely, insurance professional agencies, insurance brokerage companies, consumer finance companies and loan companies, which did not need to report large-value transactions and suspicious transactions before, are also included in the management scope this time. These two measures basically blocked the channels of purchasing overseas insurance and purchasing foreign exchange by means of capital leverage.

Many people have been rumoured that the foreign exchange quota of $5, will be cancelled and reduced to $1,, and some people have also rumoured that foreign exchange settlement is compulsory. This idea is really disappointing and seriously underestimates Yang Ma's IQ. Whether the quota of $5, is cancelled or the foreign exchange settlement is forced, it will cause panic and a run-on effect similar to that of sheep, with disastrous consequences. The introduction of such a method is indeed much more subtle and clever. My mother will not lower the quota, but will set up obstacles to cash withdrawal and remittance.

This measure was promulgated on the last day of the end of 216, which indicates that the cold winter of capital control has come, and the golden age of relatively free capital flow has ended. Those who want to invest, emigrate, study abroad and travel abroad will burn many brain cells! Well, if you have changed the US dollar, how can you play with the US dollar investment in 217?

1. Bank dollar wealth management products

The minimum threshold for bank dollar wealth management products is 8, US dollars, and there are also 18, US dollars and 3, US dollars; Dollar wealth management products are generally term products, and the term is not so flexible compared with RMB wealth management, mostly for half a year and one year; The average expected rate of return is 1.66%.

From the future trend, the income level of US dollar wealth management products is greatly affected by the change of US dollar interest rate. However, in the short term, the interest rate in the United States is still at a low level. In the same period, the income difference between RMB wealth management products and US dollar wealth management products is about 3 percentage points. On the basis of the large depreciation of RMB at the beginning of the year, US dollar wealth management products are not the most recommended investment method in US dollars.

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2. US stocks

At present, mainstream products are passively managed, which will be linked to S&P 5, Nasdaq 1 and other indexes, as well as corresponding ETF products. So far in 216, the S&P 5 index has risen by about 1%, while the Dow Jones index has risen by about 13.7%. At present, it seems that the American economy is improving and the stock volatility is relatively small. Moreover, generally mature enterprises pay dividends every quarter. In addition, compared with A-shares, U.S. stocks can also do T+ transactions, with very good liquidity and rapid capital turnover. It can also use leverage to short or long multiple times. It is a good choice for dollar investment.

3. US dollar insurance policy

Many mainland tourists went to Hong Kong to buy insurance this year, but actually they bought US dollar insurance policies. In the case of the appreciation of the US dollar against the RMB, buying a US dollar insurance policy can improve the return on investment. In addition, overseas insurance also has the property of preserving value. Moreover, from the research and analysis of the internal rate of return method, the rate of return in the first ten years of the policy is less than 5%, and the rate of return in the second ten years increases exponentially, which is very suitable for investors who hold dollars for a long time.

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4. Bank deposits are fixed

Of course, directly converting RMB into dollars is also a kind of financial management, which has a current income of 7%. The dollar in investors' hands can be used for current or fixed deposit, which is the most direct investment channel. Of course, what investors are most concerned about when making deposits is the interest rate. According to analysis, the interest rate of time deposits given by foreign banks is higher than that of state-owned banks. However, it should be noted that the foreign currency deposit interest rate of foreign banks is affected by the international financial market, and the interest rate changes frequently, which needs close attention.

5. dollar-denominated QDII

compared with the domestic market, the overall performance of QDII funds investing in overseas markets is remarkable. As of December 39, among the 171 QDII funds in the market, the average rate of return was as high as 4.67%. However, investors are reminded that the performance of QDII funds has been divided and fluctuated greatly this year. Although there are 98 positive returns in the fund, there are still 33 negative returns. Therefore, investors should be cautious when choosing, and be careful to step on "thunder".

The new regulations also clarify the requirements for reporting suspicious transactions based on "reasonable suspicion", and add requirements for establishing and improving transaction monitoring standards, transaction analysis and identification, monitoring of terrorism-related lists, establishment of monitoring systems and record keeping. Financial institutions automatically capture and submit large-value transactions through the system, and discover and submit suspicious transaction reports through customer identification, keeping customer identity data and transaction records, and conducting transaction monitoring and analysis ... < P > If this set of standards is really implemented, whether foreign exchange can be purchased is basically in the hands of financial institutions and SAFE. Whether it is immigration, buying a house overseas or studying abroad, as long as it involves large-value or long-term foreign exchange purchases, it may be listed as a suspect and become the focus of anti-money laundering and financial security.

impossible trinity, a famous Mundell-Fleming model, pointed out that among the three goals, a government can only achieve two at the same time, but not three at the same time.

judging from the introduction of this method, the central bank has chosen monetary policy independence and currency stability, giving up the free flow of capital, that is, giving up the basic commitment to join SDR. As long as the free flow of capital is restricted, the currency will give up its internationalization efforts, because it is impossible for any currency to achieve internationalization without free flow.