Is it appropriate to take "Causes, Current Situation and Countermeasures of Unemployment in China" as the topic of graduation thesis?

How to alleviate the contradiction between labor supply and demand in the face of unprecedented employment pressure

Zhao Changmao, a professor and doctoral supervisor of the Central Party School?

under the planned economy system, China implements the policy of low wages and high employment. On the surface, everyone has a job, but in fact, a large number of surplus laborers exist in the form of hidden unemployment. After the reform and opening up, with the continuous transformation of the economic system, hidden unemployment gradually became apparent. In the 199s, the unemployment pressure increased significantly. In 1992, China's registered urban unemployment rate was 2.3%, reached 4% in 22, rose to 4.3% in 23, and the expected unemployment rate in 24 was 4.7%.

With the rising unemployment rate, China is facing unprecedented employment pressure. The existence of a large number of unemployed people not only means the waste of human resources, but also brings pain to individuals, families and society, which has negative effects in many aspects and has become an important factor affecting social stability. Therefore, in western economics, the unemployment rate is called the "pain index".

it should be pointed out that the current unemployment rate in China is not high by the standards of western developed countries, but why is the employment pressure in China huge? To clarify this issue, we must first understand the specific connotation of China's unemployment rate. First of all, the unemployment rate announced by our government to the society is the registered urban unemployment rate. Since it is the "urban" unemployment rate, it does not reflect the rural unemployment problem, that is to say, it only reflects part of the unemployment problem in China, while the unemployment rate announced by western countries is the whole social unemployment rate including both urban and rural areas; The so-called "registered" unemployment refers to people who are not in agricultural registered permanent residence, have the ability to work within a certain working age, require employment but are unemployed, and register for jobs in local employment service agencies. If they are unemployed, but they are not registered, they will not be counted. The unemployment rate announced by western countries is a survey unemployment rate, and the authenticity of the survey unemployment rate is higher than the registered unemployment rate. Secondly, the upper age limit of unemployment statistics in China is too low. According to China's regulations, the age range of unemployment registration is 16-5 for men and 16-45 for women, while the retirement age of employees is 6 for men and 55 for women. Foreign countries usually only stipulate the lower age limit for the unemployed. Those who continue to look for jobs after retirement but can't find jobs are still counted as unemployed. Thirdly, China distinguishes between laid-off workers and unemployment. Laid-off workers are not considered as unemployed, and laid-off workers are not included in unemployment statistics. In 23, the number of laid-off workers in China reached more than 6 million.

how high is the unemployment rate in China?

Professor Feng Lanrui, an employment expert from Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in 23, the unemployment rate in China was close to 3%?

reporter (hereinafter referred to as reporter) your figure that the unemployment rate in China is 27.78% is scary enough. Has the third unemployment peak in China, which you mentioned, passed now?

Feng Lanrui (hereinafter referred to as Feng): At present, the third unemployment peak in China has not passed. I mean open unemployment, hidden unemployment and peasant unemployment. I can't give specific figures in this respect now. In 21 and 22, unemployment reached its peak.

Reporter: According to the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the employment situation in China is already very good, with more than 1 million laid-off workers returning to their posts, and the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns of the Bureau of Statistics is 4%.

feng: have you read my article? I said that the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns is unscientific and incomplete. First, it abandons the countryside and only engages in cities and towns. Second, only the unemployed who have registered are counted. Those who have not registered are not counted, and those who have no contract units are not counted. Only a few people have registered. Some people don't necessarily register after losing their jobs, and some even don't know where to register, which is caused by the imperfect labor security system. The fact is that in 22, although more than 1 million unemployed people found jobs again, there were far more unemployed people than employed people. At the same time, many new laborers were added, such as graduates of secondary and higher education, people who reached the age of 18, and rural laborers who lost their land.

We often see articles in this field published in the national media, but the exact unemployment rate in China is not very clear.

Reporter: China is the most populous country in the world. Is the unemployment rate relatively high?

feng: this statement is also unscientific.

Reporter: Do you think it is higher than the 27.78% at the third peak of unemployment? Is there any basis for this?

feng: of course it's well founded. There is no evidence that the third unemployment peak in China has passed. The current unemployment rate in China lacks a fair, objective and scientific evaluation. At present, I can't get an accurate figure in this regard, and there may be very few people who can't get it. The hidden unemployment rate in cities and the unemployment rate of a large number of farmers do not have an accurate figure.

reporter: can it reach 3%? What you said is higher than previously predicted, is it close to 3%?

feng: my statistical method includes open and hidden unemployment. At present, some laid-off resettlement offices have not been removed, and the laid-off offices have been prepared for three years, and now it has been five years.

China's theory of economic slowdown? 23-9-2

The sharp increase of urban unemployment in China will seriously restrict the economic growth of China. According to the questionnaire survey of domestic scholars and officials, the Labor Science Research Institute of the Ministry of Labor and Social Security of China believes that the actual urban unemployment rate in China has reached 7%, which has an increasing trend in recent two years. Among them, the official's estimate is low (close to 6%) and the scholar's estimate is high (higher than 8%); The Macroeconomic Research Institute of China State Planning Commission estimates that the real unemployment rate will exceed 9% in 21. According to the sampling survey and comprehensive data, the State Council Development Research Center estimates that the real unemployment rate in cities and towns has been above 1% since the mid-199s, with the real unemployment rate reaching 13% to 15% in 1997 and 1998.

John Donne, an expert on China at Cato Institute in the United States, estimates that by the end of 22, the total unemployment rate in urban and rural areas in China may reach 1%, and the number of unemployed people will be between 3 million and 4 million. Among them, the rural unemployment rate is between 1% and 15%. Dr. Cheng Xiaonong of Princeton University in the United States estimates that the actual unemployment rate in China is 2%, and the number of unemployed people is about 4 million to 5 million. He thinks that the unemployment rate in small and medium-sized cities in mainland China is above 3%.

The statistical caliber of unemployment rate in China and some opinions

From a rough point of view, the calculation of urban unemployment rate in China mainly has the following shortcomings:

1. The rural areas are not included, because there is huge hidden unemployment in rural areas, so China's estimation is greatly underestimated.

2. Only urban hukou is considered, and the floating population who work in cities without hukou is not counted, which greatly overestimates

3. The laid-off workers who are nominally unemployed but actually unemployed in state-owned enterprises are not counted, which is underestimated. In China's statistics, laid-off workers are not included in the unemployment part (in fact, I think this statistic is ironic. What is the difference between laid-off workers and unemployed workers? )

The above three points are different from the West

4. Self-employment, domestic workers, underground workers and part time job, not temporarily) are not included, which is overestimated.

The fourth point is not included in the western statistics, but considering that China is in a period of transition, the ratio of this part may be much higher than that of the western market economy.

At present, China does not have a direct statistical data for the fourth part, but first estimates the scale of China's underground economy and family economy, and then estimates the possible employment ratio, but I doubt whether this estimation is accurate after several times!

My personal view on the current unemployment situation in China is that, on the whole, the employment rate in China should be much higher than that in OECD countries. Although the unemployment rate in China is underestimated in many aspects, the unemployment rate in China is also overestimated in many aspects, and the so-called employment elasticity is reduced. Personally, I think that structural adjustment is inevitable when it is subjected to a huge technological shock. However, after more than 2 years of gradual reform in China, the adjustment speed in China is getting faster and faster.

I think the so-called employment problem in China is mainly in three aspects:

First, why has the unemployment rate in China increased slightly and social sensitivity has been rapidly provided? It is not the role of unemployment mechanism, but the lag of social security policy. Undoubtedly, compared with oecd countries, China's employment rate still belongs to a virtuous circle process.

second, the statistical work is lagging behind. The statistical work in China has just started. At this time, the structural adjustment of employment in China is very turbulent, which poses a greater challenge to the statistical work. Therefore, under the premise of no definite data, all kinds of unemployment rates, good and bad, have been calculated.

third, the unemployment problem in China is not a high unemployment rate, at least the key point is not that the unemployment rate is high, but that the unemployment duration is too long. In fact, many people already belong to dropout, and it is this part that is the biggest headache for China at present. The solution to this problem mainly lies in two aspects, one is the improvement of welfare security system, and the other is active labor policy. As a country with only more than 2 years of market experience, this is a powerful challenge. The unemployment rate in the United States is much higher than that in China, but its unemployment rate is mainly reflected in short-term unemployment. The United States can handle 5 million unemployed people every month and then get re-employed, so the matching efficiency of China's labor market is far lower than that of the United States. This is the problem.

the average unemployment rate of new immigrants in China is 5.9%? 23-1-16

According to the latest statistics released by the Australian Federal Bureau of Statistics, the employment situation of new immigrants from Asia recently is grim, and the unemployment rate of new immigrants from China is as high as 15.8%.

According to the Australian Federal Bureau of Statistics, recent arrivals refer to new immigrants who have arrived in Australia since 1996. According to some immigrant communities, it is more difficult for these people to find jobs than others.

The latest statistics on the employment situation of new immigrants show that the average unemployment rate of new immigrants in Australia is 5.9%, which is higher than that of people born in Australia (5.5%) on the whole.

However, the unemployment rate of immigrants from different countries varies greatly. Among them, the highest unemployment rate is immigrants from North Africa and the Middle East, with an unemployment rate of 3%. The lowest unemployment rate is immigrants from Britain and Ireland, with an unemployment rate of 3.4%.

The unemployment rate of new immigrants from North Asia is 13.8%, while the employment participation rate is the lowest among new immigrants from Northeast Asia.

The unemployment rate reached 3% after less than five years of migration

At the meeting, the organization released a report called "Building Our Future Workforce", which quoted figures from different reports.

The report points out that the unemployment rate of new immigrants who have been in Canada for less than five years is higher than that of local-born people, and the overall unemployment rate of new immigrants is 3%, while the unemployment rate of new immigrants in the main working age group of 25-44 is 12.1%, and that of local-born people of the same age is 6.4%, indicating that the unemployment rate of new immigrants in this age group is nearly-times higher than that of local-born people.

Before the arrival of many immigrants, about 3% of them worked in professional, administrative and management jobs in their original places of residence, but only about 1% of them can work in similar jobs again after arrival, and as many as 73% of them claim that their original academic qualifications are not recognized. The salary earned by new immigrants is also lower than that of native people, especially for female new immigrants.

China is in the period of social transformation, the social structure is changing, social contradictions are on the rise, and social conflicts are becoming more and more obvious, which brings disharmony and instability to reform and development. A society should maintain an open, flexible and inclusive state, and through controllable, legal and institutionalized mechanisms, various social tensions can be released, social demands can be responded, and social conflicts can be resolved. Resolving social contradictions in time, seeking solutions and setting up "safety valves" to resolve social crises are of great significance for building a harmonious socialist society.

just from the phenomenon, it can be said that at present, all kinds of social contradictions in China are relatively concentrated. Farmers lost their land, urban poverty, labor disputes, college students' employment difficulties, increased mass petitions, frequent mine accidents, rising incidence of AIDS, drug abuse and so on. Various problems in the social field have begun to affect the healthy development of the economy.

Ding Ningning, Minister of Social Affairs of the State Council Development Research Center, said that these problems emerged after the Asian financial crisis and were the result of deepening the market system reform. He emphasized that the central government's policy of dealing with social problems rose from "two guarantees" to "five overall plans", and then put forward "people-oriented" Scientific Outlook on Development; Its core is to pay attention to the coordinated development of economy and society, which has made clear the direction for alleviating various social contradictions.

In his view, there are three issues that have the greatest impact on China's social field and will play a long-term role: employment, income gap and social security. Employment is the basic means for individuals and families to make a living, and it is also conducive to preventing individuals from drifting out of society. The necessary income gap can improve the operating efficiency of micro-organizations. If the income gap is too large, it will not only violate the principle of fairness, but also make the lives of some social members in trouble. Under the condition of modern market economy, social security system is an important measure and the last line of defense to safeguard social justice and alleviate social contradictions.

Employment difficulties should not be underestimated

China Economic Times: We feel that the current employment difficulties are almost manifested in various industries and all kinds of people, and even many college graduates who have been in the cold window for more than ten years have no way to find jobs. Did this phenomenon happen five years ago or ten years ago?

ding ningning: this is very different from the early days of reform and opening up. Employment difficulty is an unavoidable phenomenon in the process of modernization in all countries, and the situation that population growth precedes industrialization in China aggravates this crisis. The factors that lead to employment difficulties at present and in the future come from three aspects: first, the working-age population remains high. According to estimates, although the number of working-age population will decrease slowly after 21, the proportion of working-age population in the total population is still very large; Secondly, in the process of urbanization, a large number of rural people enter urban areas to find jobs every year, which intensifies the total surplus of the primary labor market; Third, in the process of high-speed industrialization, the industrial and economic structure has been constantly adjusted, which has brought about structural contradictions in the middle and senior labor markets. These three factors will not change fundamentally before 22. As for the employment difficulties of college students, besides the increase of the working-age population, it is directly related to the problems existing in the reform of the education system.

China Economic Times: It should be said that maintaining a certain unemployment rate is the normal operation form of a market economy society, and it is also conducive to talent competition, thus improving social labor productivity. It's just that we have too many unemployed and semi-unemployed people.

Ding Ningning: Employment has been a problem since the emergence of industrial civilization.