Why is India, with its large population, still so poor? How did the demographic dividend become a "black hole"?

India is a populous country. How many people are there?

Let me first ask you a question, how many washing machines does the largest laundry factory in India have?

Hahaha, the answer is no washing machine! Hand wash all!

The century-old laundry factory in Mumbai, India, has more than 800 laundry pools. Thousands of workers rub clothes every day. Because the scene is so bizarre, it has become a tourist destination in Mumbai!

Why is artificial intelligence so backward? Because there are so many people, the labor cost is much lower than using a washing machine!

How many people are there in India? The land area for people is one-third of ours, but by 2020, the population has reached 1.38 billion, which is about the same as ours. That’s a bit abstract, right? Come see this

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Some time ago, it was widely reported on the Internet that India has the largest population in the world. Don’t take it seriously, it’s unreliable! but! There is one fact that is undoubted - if India continues to grow at an average annual population growth rate of more than 10 million in the past ten years, India will soon become the world's most populous country! According to the United Nations forecast, it is 2027.

In fact, as early as the 1950s, India felt that this was something wrong and began to control excessive population growth. Any method can be used! Posters are put up, health stations are set up, and traditional arts like singing and dancing are indispensable. The little songs played on the radio are all about not having too many babies! However, since it was just an initiative at the beginning, what was the final effect? From 1950 to 1970, India's population almost doubled!

Good guy! It’s all in vain!

So in the 1970s, India changed its strategy and began to use coercive means, and went to the other extreme.

Every aspect of the lives of ordinary Indians is linked to the word sterilization. Families that have completed sterilization will have priority in receiving benefits such as water and electricity supply, agricultural irrigation, etc.; while those who have not completed sterilization will not be able to apply for a subsistence allowance certificate or even a three-wheel taxi license! So much so that there is a rumor that a sterilization certificate can prove your identity better than an ID card! Going to extremes will inevitably not be sustainable for a long time. A year later, this policy was completely overturned. Since then, India has been trying to slow down its population growth until now. Of course, everyone has seen the results. The harder it works, the more people there are.

Xiao Ming, who had many questions, asked, "Don't there be demographic dividends when there are more people? Other countries don't have it if they want it, so why don't people want it?"

Hahahaha, if the population can be converted into labor force, that is a demographic dividend. If it is not converted, it is a population black hole! This view was put forward by the famous economist Kindleberger, who was the main architect of the famous European recovery plan after World War II!

What is the situation in India now? Although people often say it, what miracles can’t a country with 800 million young people create? But the actual situation is rather stark: 280 million people are illiterate, accounting for one-third of the world's population. It is also the country with the most illiterate people in the world. These people may not even be able to write their own names, and it would be a problem for them to go into the factory to tighten screws. After all, Foxconn has to take test questions when recruiting.

Of course, people without education can still rely on studying. Another problem is even more serious: India simply does not have that many good job opportunities for young people. At the beginning, we talked about purely manual laundry in Indian laundry factories. Not only because of low labor costs, but more importantly, the Indian industry is too vast!

Looking at the composition of India's GDP, agriculture accounts for 15.4%, industry accounts for 23%, and the service industry accounts for 61.5%. Generally speaking, if the service industry accounts for more than 70%, it is a developed country, such as Japan and the United States. From this point of view, India is very close.

However, there is a prerequisite. The United States and Japan first achieved industrialized capital accumulation and then developed a service industry. But what about India? Industrialization was almost skipped back then! It is not a big problem in a small country with a small population. For example, Singapore is engaged in international trade, the Maldives is engaged in tourism, and Switzerland is engaged in finance. Their economies are doing well, but it is a big problem in India with a huge population.

The service industry cannot provide a large number of job opportunities! Because there is no need for so many people! For example, how many people are needed to engage in tourism? Unless you call this attraction a sea of ??people!

But industry is different! Building a car, from making body, tires, glass, engine seats, to repairing and selling insurance, every link can create supporting industries. An automobile industry can drive more than 100 upstream and downstream industries, which can cost millions or even tens of millions. job opportunities! Let’s look at India’s three treasures: Generic drugs, movies and IT contribute more than 10% of GDP, but these three industries can absorb less than 10 million jobs in total. How many young people did we just say in India? 800 million!

So, on the one hand, India is very strong in IT, with specialty CEOs and 30% of the leaders of Fortune 500 companies coming from India.

On the other hand, people can’t even build a washing machine, and 70% of the labor force is still farming. You can’t just let farmers go to the city and directly become programmers, right?

Once the huge population fails to generate dividends, a suffocating scene will immediately occur: not enough to eat!

In the 2021 Global Hunger Index ranking, India ranks 101st among 116 developing countries. It is severely hungry and is also one of the countries with the highest hunger levels in the world. In order to solve the problem of food and clothing, the local government can only give priority to subsidizing agriculture, while medical care, education, building bridges, roads, houses, and industry can only be put at the back. And many Indian elites who have emerged from the siege are also voting with their feet. Data shows that India has become the world's largest immigrant exporter in recent years.

This once ancient Asian country is moving forward with heavy steps and carrying a massive population. Where is the road? Just wait and see!