What does real estate macro-environment analysis include?

1. Domestic real estate investment environment

At present, in order to curb the overheating of real estate in China, the government has set the main tone of housing for living and not for speculation, and has also introduced purchase restrictions/sales restrictions/increased down payment ratios/ Policies such as raising loan interest rates. As a result, most markets have entered a plateau, while areas that were once overheated have begun to fall sharply.

It turns out that the Chinese real estate investment logic is that house prices will definitely rise significantly, and other factors such as holding costs and cash flow can be ignored. Today, this approach to investing is illogical.

In this context, we re-examine China's real estate market.

The rental return rate of domestic real estate, that is, the cash flow, is extremely low. First-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are all below 1.5%, and Chengdu and Wuhan are better at around 2%, while the CPI increase in November was 2.2%.

This means that if house prices do not rise, the rental income from investing in domestic real estate will be at the same level as Yu’e Bao.

In this case, it is almost impossible to find an investment channel in China that is stable and has decent returns.

This year the entire Chinese real estate market is not as good as before, and other investment markets are not doing well either. Is it enough to just consume? No.

Most people want to start a family and will bear more responsibilities in the future. If the wealth accumulated now is not put into a good position, then the income in the next ten years may not be able to grow so fast.

2. Overseas real estate investment environment

In the early days, Chinese people only focused on the city where their families were when investing in real estate. With the development of the times, Chinese people have begun to invest nationwide, such as the return on investment. Relatively high first-tier cities, as well as tourist cities like Hainan. This is an inevitable trend resulting from market opening, information disclosure, and lowering of barriers. If this trend continues, real estate purchase locations will surely extend from across the country to the world.

With the saturation and peaking of the domestic real estate market, now is the time to invest in overseas real estate.

In fact, in the past fifteen to twenty years, the accumulation of wealth of the vast majority of Chinese families is only related to one factor, real estate. The earlier you invest, the more you invest and the faster your family wealth accumulates. China's real estate market has basically reached an advanced stage. Except for the four cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, most other cities are in the stage of changing hands of assets.

In the next fifteen to twenty years, Chinese family wealth will also be highly positively correlated with one factor, which is the proportion of overseas assets. Just like Li Ka-shing, he emptied his assets in mainland China and then transferred them to Europe. This is the so-called exchange of assets.

3. New characteristics of overseas property buyers

Because it is overseas property purchase, many people are concerned about these two issues, which are also the two most important issues.

Currently, overseas property buyers are showing an obvious downward trend from the perspective of the wealth chain of high-net-worth individuals, and they are also becoming more rational. In other words, if ten years ago overseas property buyers were those who were either rich or expensive and frequently bought hundreds of millions of landmark buildings overseas, then ten years later the current overseas property buyers will become closer to the general public and more Most of them are high-net-worth individuals or people with relatively good middle-class incomes.

They no longer buy landmark buildings, but choose overseas assets rationally based on their own needs and within their means.

Many people who bought houses overseas in the early days really spent a lot of money, often worth over 100 million. What they buy are landmark buildings, and these individuals who buy houses are basically either rich or expensive, and there is basically nothing that can restrict them. And now more and more high-net-worth individuals and middle-class people are buying.

From a good point of view, previous overseas property buyers have laid the foundation for Chinese buyers to become wealthy on a global scale; but from another perspective, the base of current home buyers is even larger. This means that overseas real estate as an industry has enough room for survival, development and progress, which will inevitably mean the improvement of customer experience and further improvement of consumer satisfaction.

In terms of the purpose and motivation of overseas property purchases, as China further integrates into the world and China's overseas property owners further accumulate and diversify their wealth, the starting point of Chinese people's overseas property purchases is often accompanied by rigid needs such as immigration.