What will be the future housing prices in China?

Real estate is one of the main economic pillars in China, which is related to people's livelihood and social stability, so the government and the public are particularly concerned. So what will happen to China's future housing prices? Let's take a closer look with Bian Xiao!

1. The most important factor affecting housing prices-population

House prices are related to population structure and population mobility. Since 20 12, the age of the working population (15-59) has decreased by 3.45 million. The number of new migrant workers also decreased for the first time, leading to the end of the era of rising housing prices.

According to statistics, in 20 15, the number of newly-added migrant workers only increased by more than 600,000, of which more than 80% of the population went to cities at prefecture level and above. Therefore, China is experiencing a process of urbanization, not urbanization.

The biggest advantages of big cities: education, medical care, culture and entertainment are richer and better than those of small and medium-sized cities, and employment opportunities and salaries are higher than those of small and medium-sized cities.

From the analysis of population aging, the future housing price is not optimistic, and the serious aging means that the demand for real estate will fall back in the future. China, with its large population, can't alleviate the aging problem through immigration like the United States. Therefore, population mobility and aging determine the future downturn of China property market.

2. Inflation is the main factor leading to high housing prices.

An article wrote that before 20 1 1, the price increase was due to population, and after 20 1 1, the price increase was due to currency. For example, since 20 12, housing prices in first-tier cities have risen sharply, but Shanghai's population growth has shown negative growth. Therefore, the rise in housing prices has little to do with population mobility, but the growth of M2 and deposits has led to a substantial increase in housing loans.

3. The influence of residents' income structure on housing prices can not be ignored.

According to the data released by China's Bureau of Statistics, in 20 14 years, the total disposable income of urban households was 2 1.6 1 trillion, and the total per capita disposable income in rural areas was 6.49 trillion, which was 28. 1 trillion. Since then, the National Bureau of Statistics has issued the "Source of Funds for Physical Transaction in Household Sector in 20 14 years", in which the total disposable income is 39. 1 1 trillion, exceeding the total disposable income of household sector1/trillion.

This shows that there is a big difference between the two, which means that the actual house price income in China is not that high. In addition, the gap between the rich and the poor in China is large, wealth is in the hands of a few people, and a few people own a large number of houses, which makes the housing supply in first-and second-tier cities tight, leading to a shortage of housing and high housing prices.

4. The policy has the most obvious influence on the current house price.

In addition to the age of population, population mobility, currency size and mobility, house prices are also related to real estate policies. Relevant data show that the short-term impact of policy changes on housing prices is the most obvious.

In 20 16, the central government put forward the position that "houses are used for living, not for speculation", and then used financial, taxation and legislative means to accelerate the establishment of basic systems and long-term mechanisms in line with national conditions and market laws, which not only curbed the real estate bubble, but also prevented the ups and downs.

When curbing housing prices, the central government proposed that cities with high housing price pressure should reasonably increase land supply, increase the proportion of residential land, and revitalize idle and inefficient land in cities. In addition, large cities should speed up population evacuation and promote the development of surrounding small and medium-sized cities.

Abstract: Well, the knowledge about China's future housing prices ends here. If you need more information, please continue to pay attention to Qijia. We will have more exciting content in the future.