Gao Bai: Why does globalization reverse?

karl polanyi viewed the long-term movement of capitalist economy from a structural perspective. In his classic research on the last round of globalization cycle, Polanyi proved that the efforts to release market forces, which began in the late 19th century, eventually led to 1929? The Great Depression of 1933, and the political forces supporting the protection of society gave birth to fascism, Roosevelt's New Deal and socialism in the 193s. The author believes that if Polanyi's analytical framework is further extended to the second half of the 2th century, it is not difficult to find that after World War II, both the international economic order and the domestic economic governance structures of various countries have widely established social protection mechanisms to prevent the recurrence of the Great Depression. However, since the 197s, with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the emergence of two oil crises, the capitalist economy has experienced a new round of drastic changes: neoliberalism, which advocates the release of market forces, has dominated the public policy paradigm of many countries, and the world has entered a new era of globalization. This round of globalization reached its peak in 28, and the global financial crisis brought globalization into a downward track.

Compared with Apollo Laney, Ariki emphasizes the unstable characteristics of fiscal and financial expansion in globalization. In Areki's view, during the expansion of international trade and production from 195 to 1971, multinational companies from industrialized countries made a lot of fixed capital investment, but these countries increasingly encountered fierce competition from late-developing industrial countries, which led to the decline of their profitability in the 197s. In this environment, the expansion of finance and finance has become an alternative way to obtain profits, which has led to the widespread provision of loans to the third world by banks in developed countries and the growth of eurodollar market. Because "the ability of money to promote charity like a seed that can bear fruit is no different from its terrible and destructive destructive ability, credit may be more dangerous than protectionism in trade policy". The expansion of finance and finance will lead to a global capitalist economic crisis sooner or later, in which the old global economic order is destroyed and a new one is established. The results of Areki and his research team show that this periodicity has appeared three times in the history of capitalism in the process of the rise and fall of hegemony in the Netherlands, Britain and the United States. At present, the financial instability in the international economy and the increasingly tense relationship between China and the United States provide the latest examples for Areki's theory every day.

Unlike Polanyi and Ariki's structural perspective, Harold James firmly believes that institution is the chief culprit leading to the reversal of globalization. In his research on the last round of globalization, he found an important signal showing the beginning of the reversal of the pendulum movement. The failure of the international financial order will lead to a serious financial crisis; The negative impact of the transnational free movement of goods and people on the living standards and job opportunities of industrial countries will arouse people's strong political backlash against free trade and immigration. History may not repeat the same mistakes, but James's view that anti-free trade and anti-immigration trends indicate that globalization may be reversed still has important enlightenment for us to understand what is happening in Western Europe and North America.

Different from James' view of attaching importance to institutional defects, this paper reveals the influence of institutional factors on the reversal of globalization from the perspective of organizational ecology and organizational system school. The perspective of organizational ecology will reveal the causal mechanism of understanding the reversal of globalization for us. It points out that the failure of an organization in a rapidly changing environment lies in its strong internal inertia. From this perspective, this paper will focus on the analysis that when the open economy encounters a major crisis of globalization, the objective environment has required the government's policy paradigm to change from releasing market forces to protecting society, but the government can not only take effective measures to reduce the growing public panic in the crisis, but also further release market forces, which is an important causal mechanism leading to the rise of populism and the reversal of globalization. The school of organizational system reveals the source and specific form of this inertia for us. It believes that human beings often rely on the old methods that have been proved to be effective in the past to deal with new problems in a completely different new environment. Inspired by this view, this paper will focus on analyzing why governments in various countries facing the crisis of globalization and deeply influenced by the inertia of past policy paradigms should further expand the transnational free flow of goods, capital and people under the condition that globalization has caused domestic political tension. It is the inertia of this policy paradigm that creates a huge cognitive gap between political elites and ordinary people in developed countries.