If the United States issues bonds again and no one subscribes, can the stock of national debt in the market still be affordable?

This is inevitable for the US government to issue treasury bonds. For the US debt market, few people subscribe for it. As for the repayment of existing debts in the market, the United States has three options: ① making a large number of dollars to repay old debts, the result is shorting dollars, which greatly devalues the dollar, thus greatly reducing its circulation value, its domestic inflation, soaring prices, people's poverty and economic collapse; (2) I can't afford it. The debt defaulted. Since then, the US government can no longer raise funds for transportation. The government went bankrupt, public welfare and public project expenditures, and the huge army was paralyzed, and all operations stopped. This is the reality facing the US government. (3) Raise taxes substantially again.

Due to the Trump administration's substantial tax cuts, the sharply increased military budget and the interest burden of the huge debt base, by the end of this year, the US government's budget deficit will soar from 660 billion to more than one trillion. Where can the government not send this huge sum of money?

Trump's tax reform policy has reduced the tax burden of domestic enterprises and individuals by nearly half, won the public support of taxpayers, promoted the expansion of entities and increased the employment rate. This has stimulated the growth of American economy to a certain extent, which is its favorable side; On the other hand, the US government finances all from its domestic taxes. Last year's revenue of 3.3 trillion yuan will be reduced by about 30% by the end of this year. Of course, the additional tax paid by newly-added domestic enterprises can reach about 20% of the tax reduction at most, which will actually reduce the tax revenue by about 24%. Then its fiscal revenue this year is $2.7 trillion. Compared with this year's government budget, its deficit has reached 1.2 trillion. In addition, its military budget will increase by more than 1000 billion next year, and debt interest's payment will increase, so the US government's budget deficit at the end of this year will reach an astonishing $65,438 +0.4 trillion. Where does the Trump administration not issue bonds? No wonder it lobbied Congress to raise the US government debt ceiling again, reaching $30 trillion.

US Treasury bonds are not all foreign debts, nearly 70% are domestic debts, held by domestic enterprises and the private sector, and there is a small amount of inflation. Its government once again issued 1.4 trillion national debt on a large scale. It is a small matter that no one subscribes internationally, but it is a big matter that no one subscribes at home. Then this huge sum of money can only be created out of thin air by its central bank to start the printing press and put on the market, which undoubtedly makes its domestic market inflation soar and the dollar depreciate sharply accordingly.

Today, with the rapid decline of the U.S. government debt rating, the U.S. debt has become a hot potato at home and abroad, and everyone dare not avoid it. That fool also subscribed in large quantities. Not long ago, Ireland, the holder of American debt, reduced its holdings by more than 20%, reaching 670 billion. This is not an individual phenomenon, but the magnitude is different. At present, the Trump administration's trade war against the world under the US priority policy has greatly prevented international goods from entering the US market, making it difficult for the inflated dollar to enter the international market. Therefore, this round of sharp inflation of the US dollar can only be digested and absorbed by its domestic consumers, so the author will not make any wild predictions about its national living standards.

If the U.S. government fails to issue new treasury bonds, it will have to default on its debts or raise taxes substantially again. This is a highly toxic dose to the American economy, and each dose is deadly enough. People must choose between the two. This should be a folk saying-Wu Dalang takes poison, if he eats it, he will die, or if he doesn't eat it, he will die.

The U.S. government may default on its debts, because today's U.S. government is familiar with this kind of thing internationally, which is not new. However, from the day it defaults, its petrodollars, its seigniorage, its dollar reserve weight in the International Monetary Fund and its status as a world currency will all disappear immediately, and its possibility of international financing will be zero. And its domestic economy will collapse, and the United States will be destroyed! But if it wants to raise taxes substantially, it will make the American people unable to survive, and I dare not predict the consequences.

For the present situation of the United States, the author has a good medicine that can make it recover from the past, spend its old age safely and gradually recover. This is to give up hegemonism dominated by the United States! In view of the extremely superior geographical position of the United States, it is entirely possible to cut military spending by 600 billion yuan, which is still enough to ensure its national defense security. Then cancel the strategic actions of containment, containment, infiltration, interference and subversion against its hostile countries. This kind of expenditure on its national strength is at least as good as military expenditure. These two items can completely offset the annual budget deficit of the US government, which is more than enough. Under this condition, mutual benefit, complementary advantages and harmonious development with the world will make the United States rejuvenate in less than ten years and make greater contributions to human development. By then, the United States will still be a great country that the world admires and can lead the development of the world.

The number of bonds in the United States currently exceeds $20 trillion. /kloc-in 0/7, American fiscal revenue reached a new high. But only $3.32 trillion. The fiscal expenditure was 3.98 trillion US dollars. The fiscal deficit is $660 billion.

Due to the unprecedented tax cuts in the United States. It is estimated that the fiscal deficit will increase by one trillion dollars in the future. The tax base increased due to tax reduction is increasing year by year. Therefore, the fiscal deficit increased by 1000 billion dollars in the first few years. It may reach hundreds of billions of dollars. The market predicts that the fiscal deficit in 18 may be as high as $1 trillion.

At present, the yield of ten-year US Treasury bonds is around 2.9%. 2 1 trillion dollars annual interest is about 600 billion dollars. It accounts for about 20% of the US fiscal revenue.

Therefore, the United States raises funds by constantly raising the borrowing limit. Borrowing the new and returning the old by issuing new government bonds.

If no one buys new treasury bonds. The issuance of US Treasury bonds failed. The U.S. government will close soon.

But because the dollar is the world currency. The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the world. Holding the right to print money. After the abolition of the dollar gold standard. You can print dollars continuously. Therefore, the United States will not be unable to sell US Treasury bonds. Instead, it has become the most liquid risk-free asset in the world. Won the favor of investors all over the world. China currently holds more than $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds. Become the first creditor country in the United States.

After the ZTE scandal and the US 30 1 investigation. Some people say that selling US Treasury bonds should be dealt with. Actually, it doesn't work. China's foreign exchange reserves are as high as $3 trillion. No assets can be found to allocate huge foreign exchange reserves. There is no risk. In addition, China sells its national debt. The price has dropped. It is also a way to harm others and not benefit themselves. The bonds sold by China will also be sold by other institutions. It has little impact on the United States. Short-term effects at best.

In the end, American national debt will only evolve into two possibilities. One is to completely deny that there is no need to pay back all, and the other is to print new banknotes to pay back old debts. At present, the U.S. government is taking the second measure, constantly using the global coinage right in the hands of the Federal Reserve to print new dollars to repay the previous U.S. debt. However, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic has led to a sharp increase in the size of US Treasury bonds, and the balance between printing new banknotes and repaying old debts has been broken, which has been peaceful for many years.

By June of 20021year, the national debt of the United States had exceeded $28.3 trillion, far exceeding the total GDP of the United States of 20.95 trillion in 2020. Although more than 70% of the national debt in the United States is held by the Federal Reserve, domestic enterprises and giant multinational financial institutions, in essence, more than 30% of the national debt in the United States is still held by countries and financial institutions outside the United States.

Back to the original problem, once the current US debt is not recognized by the market value, there will only be huge selling pressure in the short-term market, resulting in the current US Treasury bonds showing a trend of credit collapse, which will eventually bring trouble to the US dollar and the US economy.

At present, only Japan ranks first in the scale of US Treasury bonds in overseas regions. Earlier, including the European Union, China and Russia, they were slowly selling their US Treasury bonds. Japan also followed suit before March this year, but it was later beaten by the United States and is still increasing its holdings of US debt.

However, at present, the market's general expectation of US debt is relatively low. Before 2020, American debt is still popular in the global capital investment market, because its annualized rate of return is generally high, especially the interest rate of long-term ten-year government bonds. However, with the negative impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the US economy in 2020, the Federal Reserve decided to implement unlimited quantitative easing monetary policy during Trump's term, and the large-scale impact of the US dollar on the global capital investment market and real industries triggered inflation.

Many friends are surprised. Why did the Federal Reserve put more than 10 trillion dollars of capital flows into the market from March 2020, while inflation only appeared in the past six months? The reason is that the American economy has been affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. Many of its industries have not recovered, and neither has the real economy. Naturally, all the money poured into the virtual economy. So we can see that after the four consecutive blows of US stocks in March last year, a beautiful V-shaped reversal was formed, which constantly hit a record high.

So in general, traditional American allies, including the European Union, began to worry about the long-term depreciation of the national debt held by their opponents. In the past few years, China has also been a net exporter of US dollars, and only some countries, including Japan and Canada, are still increasing their holdings of devalued US debt.

In the future, if the national debt of the United States cannot be repaid, that is, the balance point of the second move to print new banknotes and repay old debts is finally broken, then the probability of the first move will continue to increase, which is also the core reason why the global capital investment market needs to be alert to the US debt.

I can't afford it.

Because the United States owes too much, the fiscal revenue supply is not enough to pay off the debts it owes.

The current national debt of the United States is roughly 2 1 trillion dollars. According to the data, in fiscal year 20 17, the fiscal revenue of the US federal government increased by 1.5% year-on-year to reach about 3.32 trillion dollars, and the fiscal expenditure increased by 3.3% year-on-year to reach about 3.98 trillion dollars. The proportion of fiscal deficit in gross domestic product (GDP) rose from 3.2% in fiscal year 20 16 to 3.5%.

The main items of US fiscal expenditure are social security, medical insurance and Medicaid, immigration reform allowance and military expenditure.

Among them, social security expenditure is about $967 billion, accounting for 23.3 1% of the total expenditure (or 5% of GDP); The defense expenditure is about $608 billion, accounting for 14.66% of the total expenditure (or 3654.38+0% of GDP); The expenditure on medical insurance is $598 billion, accounting for 14.42% of the total expenditure (or 3. 1% of GDP). And the expenditure on debt interest is about $303 billion. Then there is the salary of civil servants.

If I don't have enough money, how can I repay my debt?

Therefore, the United States can only borrow new debts to pay off old debts, which is the American practice. Or the whole country will stop.

Because medical insurance and social security expenditure are necessary conditions to ensure social stability. Then military spending is also necessary. Without military spending, how can we ensure the status of the only superpower? What's more, the military industry is the core global leading industry in the United States, which brings a lot of employment opportunities and income. It is impossible not to spend it.

Then interest on the debt, that's for sure. If you don't pay back, isn't it a debt default? Then the whole America will collapse.

Therefore, without issuing new debts, the United States basically cannot afford to pay back the money.

No one buys new debt, and it is impossible.

First of all, American debt is mainly concentrated in the United States, and 70% of US Treasury bonds are held by American residents. If residents don't buy government bonds, how can there be so many good investment projects that can preserve and increase the value of funds? In order to ensure that their wealth does not depreciate, buying government bonds is an important financial means for American residents.

Secondly, the dollar is the most important currency in international trade. Many countries export and hold a lot of dollars, so they can't put them into the national treasury, can they? US Treasury bonds are a suitable investment channel.

Third, the liquidity of US Treasury bonds is relatively high. As we all know, global sales and global circulation are another model of hard currency. If everyone doesn't buy it, then the previously purchased US Treasury bonds will easily depreciate. Other countries will generally continue to buy U.S. Treasury bonds for the sake of their own asset security and value preservation and appreciation.

Don't worry, there won't be no subscription. In view of the current status of the US dollar as the world currency, many countries use US debt as foreign exchange reserves to balance international settlement, because the options are really limited.

However, if the bond issue fails suddenly, the capital flow will definitely break. Some people joke that American debt is the biggest Ponzi scheme, and it is like snowballing to repay the interest and debt due by issuing bonds later. If there is no new capital in the future, it will definitely collapse.

At present, the US government's fiscal revenue is a deficit, which means that the US fiscal expenditure is actually far greater than the fiscal revenue itself, which is also the reason why the US government has repeatedly stopped work and continuously raised the debt ceiling. The national debt of the United States has now exceeded $2 1w, and the GDP of the United States ranked first in the world in 2065, but it was only nearly $ 20w in 438+07. That is to say, the scale of American debt has now exceeded the GDP of the United States, indicating that the snowball of American debt is getting bigger and bigger, and the growth rate of American debt is nearly 6%, while the growth rate of GDP is only 2.5%. Even if the inflation rate is below 2%, the growth rate of American debt far exceeds the growth rate of GDP.

The debt problem is a prominent problem. Although the Fed has begun to shrink its balance sheet, it still has a long way to go. If it stops, the debt crisis will break out, which will trigger a global financial tsunami and then trigger a new round of financial crisis.

This is a very interesting question;

The huge debt of the United States is currently $265,438 +0 trillion;

Such a huge debt can only be paid off slowly, and it is difficult to pay it off at one time. Because such a large liquidity is difficult to find at one time, even if it is found, the cost is high. So the usual method is to issue new debts to pay off old debts. If a country wants to reduce the debt scale, it also needs to gradually reduce the issuance of bonds, which cannot be repaid at one time; This is not only bad for debtors, but also bad for creditors.

Then it caused the above problem:

If the United States issues bonds again and no one subscribes, can the stock of national debt in the market still be affordable?

Of course, it is impossible to emphasize this situation first; Can only be discussed as a hypothetical condition;

The existing assets are 2 1 trillion dollars. If the interest rate is 2% and the bonds of 2 1 trillion dollars are due every year and the principal needs to be paid, then the amount that the United States needs to pay in the next ten years is as follows:

In the first year, 2.1+0.42 = $2.52 trillion;

In the second year, 2.1+(21-2.1) * 2% = $2.478 trillion.

...............................................

In the tenth year, 2. 1 +0.042=2. 142 trillion dollars.

In other words, the United States needs to pay $ 2. 142 trillion in debt every year, which is not a small sum;

What is the annual revenue of the United States?

The situation in 20 16 is as follows: the annual fiscal revenue of the us government is 3.3 trillion us dollars;

However, the annual sales of the military alone are as high as 600 billion US dollars;

Can the United States save this money?

Trump also said that if tax cuts are to be made, the fiscal revenue will be less;

What do we do? Open source and reduce expenditure; If you don't open source or cut expenditure, you can only wait for death;

In fact, it is not terrible to owe foreign debts, but it is terrible to owe domestic debts. At that time, it must be the old routine of printing dollars and inflation, which is equivalent to robbing the American people of their own money. Internal shocks will not be fun then.

So the problem in the United States is still quite big.

It can be said that as long as the interest rate is reasonable, there is no unsold bond in this world.

Even Venezuela wants to buy junk bonds like Goldman Sachs. You can imagine how American debt can't be sold.

If you are an expert, you should ask, if American bonds are issued too much, interest rates will rise sharply. What will happen to America?

What will happen? As a big financial country, do you think the United States has no countermeasures? The Fed's ready-made quantitative easing tool is used to lower interest rates, and there will be other means to lower interest rates, distort operations and so on.

At present, the Fed raises interest rates continuously, one purpose is to have room to cut interest rates when needed in the future. Although the Federal Reserve is a bureaucratic system, it is still a hiding place. These simple things, they cannot but know.

In short, I really don't have to think too much, eat pickles and worry about Americans!

If the United States is afraid of issuing new debts and no one subscribes, then terrorism will trigger creditor countries to sell old debts. If no one takes over this old debt, at that time, many creditor countries may ask the United States for debt. I'm afraid there is only one way for the United States to go ~ that is to auction domestic resources to pay off debts, and the resources directly controlled by the White House and Congress are very few (all in the States). At that time, the United States may launch a war of terror, or all States will be independent, otherwise.

If such a thing really happens, it can be said with certainty that the stock of national debt is not yet available.

The US national debt has now reached 2 1 trillion dollars, which is the size of the US government. It is estimated that any other country has gone bankrupt 800 times.

As we all know, there are only two sources of repayment of national debt: borrowing the new and returning the old and repaying the proceeds.

In theory, it is a healthy way to repay with income, and the government revenue is mainly tax revenue and state-owned enterprise income. The federal government of the United States has been running a fiscal deficit for many years. In the words of ordinary people, they earn less than they spend.

Borrowing new debt has become the main source of funds for the US government to repay its national debt. Therefore, if no one buys the new national debt, the government will have no source of debt repayment, and it is obviously not enough to pay off debts by income. Cash flow is as important to business operations as government operations.

We have never seen such a thing happen to the US government, but it is very common in enterprises. It is common for banks to lend money in business operations. Did it happen often in previous years?

If the loaned enterprise has no other channels to solve the capital problem, bankruptcy is the only way out, and so is the government.

However, this kind of thing will not happen to the US government. Although the right to issue money is not in the hands of the US federal government, it is still in the hands of Americans, and the interests are the same. When the government goes bankrupt, the Federal Reserve and other institutions with the right to issue money will not sit idly by.

This question proves that you are too ignorant. The Fed claims to be private, but its chairman needs to be appointed by the White House. It has nothing to do with the US government. Only a fool would believe it! The United States does not need to worry about the debt problem at all. If the bonds can't be sold, start the printing press to pay off the debts. In addition, sometimes you don't need to print money, just a number.