Can the household registration system reform make house prices rise again?

Recently, the State Council Office held a special press conference to interpret the recently issued Opinions on Further Promoting the Reform of the Household Registration System. Is to announce that China will implement a differentiated settlement policy. Towns and small cities can rent houses and settle down. Megacities such as Beishangguang should strictly control the population size.

Specifically, the full liberalization of towns and small cities means that as long as you have the will and want to settle down, you can have a legal and stable residence, even if you rent a house. Medium-sized cities are basically liberalized and the threshold is relatively low. As long as there are legally stable residences and legally stable employment, they will line up in order, and those who are willing to settle down can generally settle down. For big cities, the threshold is relatively low. As long as you have a legally stable employment, reach a certain number of years, have a legally stable residence, and participate in social insurance according to state regulations for a certain number of years, you can settle down.

Experts in the industry believe that about 6,543.8+billion agricultural transfer population will settle in cities and towns in the future. On the one hand, it can alleviate the problem of high inventory of commercial housing in small and medium-sized cities in the third and fourth tier, and the continuous influx of "people flow" and "capital flow" will be a great benefit to the real estate industry. On the other hand, after the household registration system is opened, a large number of farmers become citizens, which will play a considerable role in stimulating domestic demand and stabilizing China's economic growth.

In my opinion, when rural people settle in cities, they can not only gain identity, but also have a sense of belonging in urban life and enjoy some rights such as urban life security, medical security and educational resources security. Moreover, this household registration reform system divides the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen into megacities and adopts the points system to settle down. This has led many people to buy a house in Beishangguang and live a good life, but those who don't have a hukou see the hope of getting a hukou.

However, the problem is that in recent years, the reform of the household registration system in China has stagnated, often because the local government's finances are tight. In the eyes of many local governments, even the registered population is self-sufficient in public service expenditure at present, so it is natural for foreigners to enjoy the same treatment. Therefore, although migrant workers have made great contributions to urban development, compared with the local registered population, their treatment in children's education, medical care and old-age care has been discriminated against. Obviously, to speed up the reform of the household registration system, we must first solve the "intestinal obstruction" of the shortage of funds.

For local governments at all levels, accelerating the reform of household registration system and realizing the equalization of public services is largely not a problem of financial capacity, but an unreasonable allocation of financial resources. The author believes that only by reducing the funds of the three public funds, putting more funds into the people's livelihood, and at the same time increasing the introduction of private capital, individual capital and other social capital to broaden the financing channels, and forming the joint efforts of the whole society, can the reform of the household registration system be smoothly promoted and the people-oriented new town goal be realized.

Nowadays, many people think that the reform of household registration system will make a large number of migrant workers enter cities and towns to become citizens, which will lead to huge housing demand and the real estate industry in cities all over the world will be revived. In my opinion, the rural population doesn't have to buy a house, and it doesn't have to generate demand for buying a house. Just rent a house to live. Originally, there were more than 654.38 billion shanty towns and urban residents in the city, and this time it will also be taken care of by the government's affordable housing. Therefore, the liberalization of the household registration system does not mean that house prices will rise sharply.

First of all, the price adjustment this year is actually a repair of the excessive price increase of 20 13. Even if the household registration restrictions are relaxed and migrant workers are allowed to settle down and become citizens, about 95% of migrant workers will choose to rent houses in the face of high housing prices. Therefore, the liberalization of the household registration system is undoubtedly a big plus for the long-term downturn in the real estate leasing market in second-and third-tier cities.

Moreover, the reform of the household registration system, like the cancellation of the purchase restriction order, seems to be beneficial to the real estate market. However, in the face of the inventory of commercial housing that the city needs two or three years to digest, it can only play an auxiliary role at most, so that the "downward trend" of housing prices in second-and third-tier cities is no longer so steep.

Finally, the reform of the household registration system ended the era when the floating population could only obtain blue-printed hukou by buying a house. The foreign population can get the qualification to settle down without buying a house, which makes the demand for buying a house in many cities drop sharply. Blue-printed hukou is a kind of household registration between formal hukou and temporary hukou, which is named after the public security organ affixes the blue seal. Since 1990s, it has been implemented in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan and other big cities, and it was cancelled after 2000.

Blue-printed hukou is a "green card" for urban residence, which is equivalent to "investment immigrants" or "skilled immigrants" in China. If you invest in the real estate specified by the local government, or meet the conditions of investment, tax payment, employment, etc., you can give a blue seal account. Blue-printed account holders enjoy the treatment of non-local permanent residence in nursery school, kindergarten, compulsory education, business license, gas and telephone installation. Therefore, in many places, it once became an important means to promote commercial housing.

Blue-printed hukou has really promoted the local economy. Taking Tianjin as an example, according to relevant statistics, Tianjin * * * has approved more than 3 10000 blue-printed accounts. In terms of real estate, the commercial housing purchased by household registration personnel from other provinces and cities accounts for about 10% to 15% of the commercial housing in this city.

However, the blue-printed hukou has also brought many disadvantages, such as "more immigrants in the college entrance examination" and "vacant housing". This has caused many people to complain, such as "foreigners buy houses and settle down, which indirectly raises local housing prices to a very high level" and "there are more blue-printed accounts for migrants, and foreign children flock to the college entrance examination, which will increase the pressure on local children". Now that the blue-printed hukou policy has been abolished, the real estate market is the hardest hit. It is predicted that the cancellation of the blue-printed account will cause the house price to plummet by half.

The reform of the household registration system has gone to the deep water area, but the promotion of new urbanization does not mean that the housing price bubble in China will not burst. On the one hand, in the face of high housing prices in cities, most migrants rent houses after entering cities, which has little effect on real estate destocking. On the other hand, China's real estate has entered a period of adjustment, with a huge inventory backlog. However, there is a long process for the 6,543.8+billion farmers who have already entered the city to enter the city, which will last until 2020, so even if there is some housing demand, it is far from being thirsty. More importantly, the reform of the household registration system has caused small and medium-sized cities to cancel the blue-printed hukou, and migrants can rent houses and settle down. So why buy a house? Therefore, the reform of household registration system can not maintain the real estate bubble, but only accelerate its bursting process.

(The above answers were published on 20 17-02-2 1. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

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