Zhuhai population and urban development

Zhuhai Population and Economic Development Report

In the 30 years of reform and opening up, Zhuhai, as a special economic zone, has developed from a remote and backward border town into a beautiful modern coastal city. While Zhuhai's economy has developed by leaps and bounds, the city's population has shown a benign development trend, creating a good population environment for the city's economic development.

I. Main features

(a) The total population continues to grow.

In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, the population of Zhuhai has developed greatly. In 2007, the permanent population of the city was 65.438+0.4544 million, an increase of 65.438+0.0937 million compared with 360.7 million at the beginning of the reform and opening up, an increase of 3.03 times. The registered population increased from 360,700 in 1979 to 956,900 in 2007, an increase of 596,200, an increase of 1.65 times.

Since the reform and opening up, the characteristics of Zhuhai's total population in different periods are as follows:

1. Steady growth period. From 1979 to 1984, the permanent population of the city increased from 360,700 to 395,200, with an average annual growth rate of 1.84%. During this period, the population of Zhuhai is in a relatively gentle growth period, both in total scale and growth rate.

2. A period of sustained and rapid growth. From 1985 to 2000, the city's permanent population increased from 4 1. 1.70 million to 1.2365 million, an increase of 824,800, with an average annual growth rate of 7.39%. The population scale expanded rapidly and continued to grow rapidly.

3. The total volume increased at a high level, and the growth rate stabilized. From 5438+0 in 2006 to 2007, the resident population increased from 1.2845 million to 1.4544 million, an increase of 1.6999 million and an increase of 1.03%. During this period, although the average annual growth rate of the resident population dropped to 2.35%, the absolute average annual growth rate of the total resident population in the city was still at a high level, with an average annual growth rate of about 3. 1 10000.

Great changes have taken place in the age structure.

Since the reform and opening up, the age structure of Zhuhai's permanent population has changed significantly.

1. The proportion of children is gradually decreasing.

In the third national census 1982, the population of children aged 0- 14 in Zhuhai was 1 16300, accounting for 3 1.09% of the resident population. In the fourth population census 1990, the population of children in Zhuhai was 152300, accounting for 23.97% of the city's permanent population. In the fifth census in 2000, the population of children in Zhuhai was 2 1.39 million, accounting for 1.73 1%. In 2005, the national 1% population sampling survey showed that children accounted for 16.39% of the city's permanent population.

2. The proportion of working-age population has steadily increased.

1982, 15-64 years old working-age population is 238 1000, accounting for 63.63%; 1990, the working-age population in the city was 453,700, accounting for 71.41%of the total resident population; In 2000, the working-age population in the city was 972,800, accounting for 78.75%; In 2005, the national 1% population sampling survey showed that the urban working-age population accounted for 78.438+02% of the resident population. Since the reform and opening up, after a period of steady growth, in recent years, the proportion of working-age population to urban resident population began to stabilize and fall back.

3. The proportion of the elderly population has increased.

In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, the proportion of elderly people aged 65 and over has experienced a bottoming stage and has begun to increase in recent years. 1982, 1990, in 2000 and 2005, the proportion of the elderly population over 65 in the city's permanent population was 5.28%, 4.62%, 3.94% and 5.49% respectively.

See table 1 for the proportion of the population of three age groups to the permanent population in Zhuhai.

Table 1: Proportion of population of all ages to resident population

Unit: person%

The resident population is 0- 14 years old.

The ratio of population to resident population is 15-64 years old.

Proportion of population aged 65 and over to permanent population

1982 374 137 1 16328 3 1.09 238067 63.63 19742 5.28

1990 635365 152302 23.97 4537 12 7 1.4 1 2935 1 4.62

2000 1235437 2 13902 17.3 1 97284 1 78.75 48694 3.94

2005 population sampling survey 35894 588416.39 28039 78.1219715.49.

4. The total dependency ratio of the population has been greatly reduced.

Since the reform and opening up, the total dependency ratio of the city's population has been greatly reduced, and it is currently in the "population window period" where the burden of population dependency is relatively light. When the age structure of the population is "big in the middle and small at both ends" and the child-rearing rate and pension rate are relatively low, the social burden is relatively light and the labor supply is sufficient. This age structure will bring about the increase of labor force, savings and investment, human investment and female employment opportunities, which is conducive to social and economic development. Demographers call this period "the window of population opportunity" or "the window of population statistics".

The total dependency ratio of permanent residents in the city was 1982, 1990, 57. 15% in 2000 and 28.02% in 2005, respectively. The main reason for the sharp drop in the total dependency ratio is the sharp drop in the child dependency ratio. The dependency ratio of children in the whole city dropped from 48.86% in 1982 to 20.99% in 2005. In the same period, the old-age dependency ratio decreased from 8.29% in 1982 to 7.03% in 2005, a decrease of 1.26 percentage points.

See Table 2 for the dependency ratio of Zhuhai.

Table 2: Population dependency ratio

Child dependency ratio (%) Old dependency ratio (%) Total dependency ratio (%)

1982 48.86 8.29 57.338+05

1990 33.57 6.47 40.04

2000 2 1.99 5.0 1 27.00

2005 20.99 7.03 28.02

(3) The cultural quality of the population has improved significantly.

1982 There are 332,582 permanent residents aged 6 years and above in the city, of whom 169 1 people have received university education, accounting for 0.5 1% of the permanent population aged 6 years and above. There are 33,006 people with high school education, accounting for 9.92%; Junior high school level is 70950, accounting for 21.33%; The number of primary school students is 162904, accounting for 48.98%; There are 640,365,438 illiterate people, accounting for 19.25%.

1990 The resident population of the whole city aged 6 and above is 567 105, among which 6 192 have bachelor degree, accounting for1.09%; There are 10080 college students, accounting for1.78%; Technical secondary school level 13483, accounting for 2.38%; There are 8 1550 students in senior high school, accounting for14.38%; There are 186837 junior middle school students, accounting for 32.95%; Primary school education 209 165, accounting for 36.88%; Few people are illiterate or literate, 59784 1, accounting for 10.54%.

In 2000, the resident population of the city aged 6 and above was 1 153878, of which 2393 were graduate students, accounting for 0.2 1%. There are 30,287 undergraduates, accounting for 2.62%; College degree 60004 people, accounting for 5.20%; There are 68,583 students in technical secondary schools, accounting for 5.94%; Senior three students 196 153, accounting for17.00%; There are 468,465,438+03 junior high school students, accounting for 40.59%; 279,277 students in primary schools, accounting for 24.20%; 5,894 literacy classes, accounting for 0.51%; There are 42,874 people who have never been to school, accounting for 3.72%.

In 2005, the proportion of permanent residents aged 6 and above with various educational levels in the city was as follows: graduate students accounted for 0.27%, undergraduates for 4.46%, college students for 7. 15%, senior high schools for 23.5 1%, junior high schools for 37. 18% and primary schools for 23.53%.

The above data show that in the past 30 years of reform and opening up, the education level of Zhuhai population has improved significantly, and the cultural quality of the population has gradually improved. Of course, Zhuhai has introduced a number of institutions of higher learning in recent years, which is also a factor in the increase of the population with college education or above in recent years.

(4) The population employment model has achieved modern transformation.

In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, the distribution structure of urban tertiary industries has undergone qualitative changes. The theory of industrial economy and the historical experience of economic development in various countries show that the employment structure of the population will change with the change of industrial structure. The general rule is that with the improvement of per capita income level, the labor force first shifts from the primary industry to the secondary industry and then to the tertiary industry. In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, with the development of economic structure, the employment structure of Zhuhai population has undergone profound changes. The industrial distribution structure of employed people gradually tends to be reasonable, and the population employment model has entered the modern type of "321". The tertiary industry has the largest proportion of employed people, followed by the secondary industry. The proportion of the employed population in the primary industry is the smallest, and the employment structure of the population has changed from the waist-drum type in the transitional period to the modern inverted pyramid type.

1982, the employed population of the primary industry in the city was 129468, accounting for 65.67% of the total employed population; The employed population in the secondary industry is 26,322, accounting for13.35%; The employed population in the tertiary industry is 4 1.345, accounting for 20.98%. At this time, the employed population in Zhuhai is mainly engaged in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, accounting for 20% of the population engaged in the tertiary industry, and the population engaged in industry and construction is the least, accounting for only about 10% of the total employed population.

1990 There were 130443 people engaged in the primary industry in the city, accounting for 34.55% of the total employed population; There are 12995438+00 people engaged in the secondary industry, accounting for 34.438+0%; There are 1 17 157 people engaged in the tertiary industry, accounting for 3 1.04%. At this time, the proportion of the population engaged in the primary industry to the total employed population has dropped by nearly half, while the proportion of the population engaged in the secondary and tertiary industries has risen sharply, especially the proportion of the employed population in the secondary industry has increased by nearly three times, and it has surpassed the employed population in the tertiary industry and is basically the same as that in the primary industry. During this period, the proportion of people engaged in primary, secondary and tertiary industries in the city was roughly equal.

In 2000, the population engaged in the primary industry in the city dropped to 98,636, accounting for 13.54%. The number of employees in the secondary industry reached 323,072, accounting for 44.35%. The employed population in the tertiary industry is 3067 13, accounting for 42. 1 1%. At this time, the secondary industry accounts for the largest proportion of the employed population, the tertiary industry accounts for 2.24 percentage points less than the secondary industry, and the primary industry accounts for significantly less than 1982 52. 13 percentage points, accounting for just over 10%.

In 2005, 9.76% of the population engaged in the primary industry, 40.66% in the secondary industry and 49.58% in the tertiary industry. At this time, the proportion of people engaged in the primary industry continued to drop below 10%, the proportion of people engaged in the secondary industry also began to decline, the proportion of people engaged in the tertiary industry continued to rise, reaching nearly 50%, and the proportion of people employed in the tertiary industry rose to the first place. (See Table 3 for details)

Table 3: Distribution of Employed Population in Three Industries

Unit: person%

Proportion of primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry

1982 129468 65.67 26322 13.35 45438+0345 20.98

1990 130443 34.55 1299 10 34.4 1 17 157 3 1.04.

2000 98636 13.54 323072 44.3356 13 42. 1 1.

2005 1930 9.76 8043 40.66 9807 49.58

The above data show that in the past 30 years of reform and opening up, the distribution of urban employed population has changed from the primary industry to the waist-drum type with the largest proportion of the employed population in the secondary industry, and continues to develop into an inverted pyramid type with the lower proportion of the employed population in the primary industry and the lagging behind in the tertiary industry. The employment structure of the population has achieved a modern transformation, which also reflects the trend and requirements of industrial development since Zhuhai's reform and opening up.

(5) Population reproduction has achieved qualitative change.

At the beginning of 1979, the birth rate was 20.99‰, the mortality rate was 5.45‰ and the natural growth rate was 15.53‰. According to the census data of 1982, the "three rates" of permanent residents in the city are 19.76‰, 4.88‰ and 14.88‰ respectively. By 2005, according to the national 1% population sampling survey data, the "three rates" of the city's permanent population had dropped to 10.20‰, 2.5 1‰ and 7.69‰ respectively. (See Table 4 for details)

Table 4: Population "Three Rates" and Sex Ratio at Birth

Unit: person

Birth rate ‰ death rate ‰ natural growth rate ‰ sex ratio (female = 100)

permanent inhabitation

1982 7393 19.76 1825 4.88 14.88 12.59 1 10.99

1990 1 1867 18.68 2307 3.63 15.05 1 1. 15 13.82

2000 13297 10.76 3365 2.72 8.04 9.49 126. 10

2005 366 10.20 90 2.5 1 7.69 7.9 1 1 13.59

Demographic theory divides population reproduction into three types: the original reproduction type with high birth rate, high mortality rate and low natural growth rate; Traditional reproduction type with high birth rate, low death rate and high natural growth rate; Modern reproduction type with low birth rate, low mortality rate and low natural growth rate. In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, with the development of social economy and the reform of system, the concept of having more children has changed greatly, especially the continuous and in-depth development of family planning work, which has greatly accelerated the transformation of population reproduction type, and Zhuhai's population reproduction has realized the transformation from traditional reproduction type to modern reproduction type.

(6) The foreign non-registered population has greatly increased.

There is a strong correlation between population development and economic and social development in a place.

At the beginning of the reform and opening up from 65438 to 0979, the floating population in Zhuhai was very small, mostly local registered population. With the process of reform and opening up, population mobility is becoming more and more frequent. As a special economic zone, Zhuhai's sustained and rapid economic development has attracted a large number of migrants to participate in production and construction. By 2000, the foreign permanent population (non-local registered population) in the city reached 5810.5 million, accounting for 47.07% of the city's permanent population, that is, nearly half of the city's permanent population is non-local registered population. The continuous inflow of migrants has provided Zhuhai with abundant labor resources and promoted the sustained and rapid economic development of Zhuhai.

(7) The scale of family households tends to shrink.

Since the reform and opening up, with the progress of society and the improvement of people's living standards, people's housing conditions have been improved, and the concept of family fertility has been constantly changing. The scale of family households is gradually shrinking, and family households are miniaturized. "A family of two or three" has become the mainstream of modern families.

1982, there are 77,903 households in the city, with an average of 4.40 people per household; 1990 There are 140690 households in the whole city, with an average of 3.80 people per household; In 2000, there were 302,230 households in the city, with an average of 3. 10 people per household; In 2005, the average number of families in this city dropped to 2.85.

Second, the main problems

While Zhuhai's population has developed greatly, there are also some problems and contradictions, mainly as follows:

(1) The total population continued to grow at a high level.

In 2007, the resident population ratio of the whole city increased by 3.03 times 1979, while the resident population of Guangdong Province only increased by about 85% in the same period. Especially in recent years, Zhuhai's beautiful urban environment and the implementation of a number of policies to benefit the people have attracted many migrants to settle down, and those who enjoy the policy of buying houses and entering households have moved in, and the registered population in Zhuhai has continued to grow at a high rate. Compared with the surrounding cities, the growth rate is too fast. In 2007, the registered population of Foshan City only increased by 0.8%, Zhongshan City by 1.02%, Guangdong Province by 1.0%, and Zhuhai City by 30,600, with an increase rate of 3.4%, which is obviously too large. According to the current situation, if the urban registered population is not regulated in time, the registered population will increase substantially not only in 2008 but also in the next two years. However, the substantial increase in registered population will directly lead to a substantial increase in the total resident population and growth rate of the city.

(2) The population structure needs to be further optimized.

1. Age distribution

In 2005, the national sample survey data of 1% population showed that among the permanent residents in Zhuhai, children aged 0- 14 accounted for 16.39%, much higher than Shenzhen, which is also a new immigrant city, by 7. 18 percentage points. At the same time, among the permanent residents in Zhuhai, the population aged 60 and above accounts for 7.9 1%, while the population aged 60 and above in Shenzhen only accounts for 2.46%. However, as a resident population aged 15-59, the proportion of Zhuhai is far lower than that of Shenzhen, which is 12.63 percentage points. The above data show that Zhuhai, as a new immigrant special zone city, has a high proportion of children and the elderly, while the proportion of people who directly participate in social and economic production activities is obviously low. This will directly weaken the productivity of the whole society, while the public resources of the city will be relatively diluted.

2. Education level

Since the reform and opening up 30 years ago, although the education level of urban population has been greatly improved, the junior high school education level is still the most.

In 2005, among the permanent residents in the city, the population with junior high school education was the largest, accounting for 37. 18%. Among the permanent residents aged 6 and above in the city, the population with junior high school education or below accounts for 54.6 1%, and the population with college education or above only accounts for 1 1.88%. At the same time, among the economically active population in the city, the population with junior high school education is the largest, reaching 42.09%.

Compared with Shenzhen, among the permanent residents aged 6 and above, the proportion of people with no education or primary school education in Zhuhai is much higher than that in Shenzhen 14. 12 percentage points. The proportion of people with college education or above in Shenzhen is higher than that in Zhuhai.

The above data show that there are many people with low education in Zhuhai's population structure, and the cultural quality of the population needs to be improved.

(3) The sex ratio at birth is still high.

In general, the sex ratio at birth is determined by biological laws, and the number of men and women at birth should be roughly balanced. Influenced by the preference for boys over girls, the imbalance of sex ratio at birth can be caused by some human factors.

1982 sex ratio at birth of permanent residents in the city 1 10.99 (female = 100, the same below), 1 13.821990,2000.

Three. Countermeasures and suggestions

(1) Control the excessive growth of the total population.

Population growth has both positive and negative effects on economic development. Moderate population growth under a small base can promote economic development, while excessive population expansion will hinder economic development. The population of a region must adapt to its economic and resource carrying capacity, and a reasonable population size is the premise to ensure the coordinated development of population, economy, society and nature.

At present, the rapid growth of Zhuhai's population is mainly manifested in a net increase and a large inertia of sustained growth. In recent years, the population of Zhuhai has been growing at a high level, especially the registered population. Zhuhai should take the lead in exploring the development path of building ecological civilization and strive to be a demonstration city for scientific development in the whole province. It is necessary to promote the coordinated development of population, economy and society, realize the coordinated development of economy and society, and realize the harmonious development of man and nature. The size of the resident population needs to be controlled in time. We should further adjust and improve the household registration policy from a long-term perspective, and we can start to regulate the population size from the following aspects:

1. Unified planning and formulation of household entry indicators in the whole city. Under the unified leadership of the municipal government, a number of relevant departments jointly formulate the total number of households in the city every year, further decompose the number of households in various ways, and formulate relevant supplementary conditions for the number of households in that year.

2. Control the number of people who buy a house every year. Those who are qualified to purchase houses will be queued according to certain conditions, and will be digested and solved year by year according to the annual household index to avoid the excessive growth of the registered population in this city in the next two years.

3. Strengthen the household registration management of college students. Take effective measures to control the number of freshmen's registered permanent residence, and move out the registered permanent residence of graduated college students in time. The collective accounts of college students can be set as immovable accounts in this city.

4. Further improve the interest-oriented mechanism of family planning. Anything that happens indoors and is regarded as a fact of super family planning should not be allowed into the house.

(2) The population structure has been further optimized.

At present, the cultural quality structure and age structure of Zhuhai population need to be further optimized and improved. The cultural quality of population is related to the ability of people in a region to understand nature and promote economic and social development, and it is an important factor to determine the economic development model and sustainable development. The low cultural quality of the population restricts the optimization and upgrading of the existing industrial structure to a certain extent. Although Zhuhai is rich in labor resources and the cultural quality of its population has improved, it is still low compared with developed regions, especially the shortage of high-quality talents, which has become an obstacle to accelerating the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. Therefore, Zhuhai should understand the urgency of improving population quality from a strategic perspective, strictly control the population from the actual needs of productivity development, and take active measures to resolve the restrictive influence of population cultural quality on economic development, optimize population structure and improve the overall quality of the whole people. Strive to realize the interaction and coordination of population growth, population quality and economic growth, and provide a good population environment for Zhuhai's sustainable economic development.

At present, we can optimize the cultural quality structure of the population from two aspects. First, improve the cultural quality of the existing population. In 2005, the national 1% population sampling survey data showed that most of the economically active population in cities came from rural areas, and their cultural quality and work skills were low. At the same time, many original villagers in this city lack employment skills after land acquisition. First of all, we should vigorously develop education, gradually improve the level of universal education, improve the multi-level socialized school-running system, and comprehensively improve the education level of the population. At the same time, vigorously develop the employment training system, face the market, improve the system, promote the system of vocational skill appraisal and vocational qualification certificate, and promote vocational and technical education. Through training, improve the quality of the existing population and provide high-quality labor for the society. Second, we should actively introduce talents. For senior and middle-level talents who meet the needs of industrial development in this city and those who are in urgent need of shortage, we should consider policy inclination in employment and household registration. It is necessary to intensify the work of talent introduction, build a platform for talent entrepreneurship, realize the strategy of talent development and innovation, and provide human resources guarantee for industrial optimization and upgrading in our city.

(3) Reduce the sex ratio of the birth population.

Population sex is the natural attribute of population and the natural basis for human survival and development. The sex ratio of the population born in Zhuhai continues to be higher than normal, especially after the second child. Unbalanced sex ratio will make it difficult for men to get married for the first time, and it will also easily lead to marriage squeeze, which will increase social disharmony and instability, and the consequences cannot be ignored. To curb the imbalance of sex ratio at birth, we must first promote the change of the concept of marriage and childbearing among the broad masses of cadres and strengthen the construction of a new fertility culture. At the same time, we will severely crack down on illegal identification of fetal sex, illegal termination of pregnancy, abduction, mutilation and abandonment of baby girls, carry out solid and in-depth actions to care for girls, and make concerted efforts to comprehensively manage them, thus forming a good policy, regulations and public opinion environment for rectifying the sex ratio of the birth population. In addition, we should further actively promote the construction of social security system, lay a solid social foundation for solving the population problem as a whole, pay attention to the basic living and medical security conditions of the elderly population, effectively solve the problem of providing for the aged, fundamentally reverse the backward concept of childbearing and realize the balanced development of the population.

In short, since the reform and opening up 30 years ago, Zhuhai's population development has made great progress, but there are still some problems and contradictions, and the task of population control is still quite arduous. It is necessary to further improve the comprehensive coordination mechanism of population control, control the size of the city's permanent population, optimize the population structure, make the city's population development more in line with the requirements of Scientific Outlook on Development, be conducive to the sustainable development of the city's social economy, create a harmonious population environment in Zhuhai, and realize the coordination of population development, economic development and social development.