Is Donald Trump of Zheng Yongnian the President of the United States or a world revolutionary?

Zheng Yongnian: Is Trump the President of the United States or a world revolutionary?

Traditionally, the United States has engaged in various forms of "color revolution" in order to promote Western-style democracy abroad. But now Trump may adapt to the ubiquitous "populist revolution".

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Trump officially took office as the 45th president of the United States today and delivered a warm inaugural speech. It is not difficult to find that the message conveyed by Trump's speech is not so much a president as a world revolutionary. Whether people like it or not, Trump's inauguration shows that American politics has entered a very uncertain era, and the world has also entered a very uncertain era. Trump's speech has a far-reaching impact on internal affairs and diplomacy. As far as internal affairs are concerned, its theme is "overthrowing the old system and establishing a new America"; As far as diplomacy is concerned, it means "overthrowing the old order and establishing a new one". So, what does Trump want to do as a revolutionary? Where will he take America? What impact will it have on world politics? On these key issues, IPP discussed with Mr. Zheng Yongnian.

Trump launched a revolutionary movement.

IPP: Teacher Zheng, Trump officially took office as the president of the United States today. What's your overall impression of his inaugural speech?

Zheng Yongnian: As someone pointed out, Trump's speech gives people a sense of time and space disorder. That's true. This speech is nothing like the traditional American presidential speech, but more like a revolutionary movement. This speech can be put into any revolutionary era, such as the French Revolution, the Paris Commune, the European socialist movement in19th century, the radical young student movement in the west influenced by the China Cultural Revolution in 1968, the Cheguana era and so on. In other words, the only theme of the speech is "revolution for the people". The "revolution" covers both domestic and international aspects, and it is necessary to take back wealth from foreigners and return it to the people.

Internally, Trump is almost announcing the arrival of a revolutionary era. He said (to the people), "For a long time, a small number of people in our capital have enjoyed the fruits of interests, but the people have to bear the price. Washington is thriving, but not as good as the people. Politicians covet jobs, and jobs are dying, and factories are closing one after another. The establishment is selfish and forgets that the people should be protected. " "Their success does not belong to you, and their glory has nothing to do with you. They celebrated in the capital, but struggling families all over the country are struggling. Everything will change, starting here and now. Because this moment is your moment, this moment belongs to you. " That's why America needs a revolution. "Today, we are not only transferring power from one government to another, or from one political party to another, but returning power from the powerful people in Washington to the people." "The United States of America, is your country. What really matters is not who is in charge of our government, but whether our government is owned by the people. 2017 65438+1October 20 will once again become the day when the people are the masters of the country. "

Traditionally, presidential speeches often emphasize American core values such as democracy and freedom, and how to publicize and pursue these values. However, Trump is quite different. He didn't emphasize these traditional values at all, but emphasized the people. He broke with the establishment (whether the Democratic Party or the Party), and he wanted to establish a brand-new regime representing the people. This is not surprising, and it is completely in line with his campaign. Trump repeatedly stressed during the campaign that what he did was not just an election, but a social revolution. This social revolution is characterized by populism and anti-establishment His election showed that the social revolution was half successful. In front of so many people (former president, congressman, capitalist, etc.) ) He is regarded as a person with vested interests, and his remarks really show that he is an "alternative figure". The campaign slogan "Make America Great Again" is not enough to express what Trump wants to do. All he has to do is "build a new America". Of course, whether Trump can realize his ideal of "serving the people" is another matter.

Trump's Extreme National Egoism

IPP: In other words, the goal of the domestic revolution is to realize people's democracy. So, what is the theme of diplomacy?

Zheng Yongnian: The theme of diplomacy can be summarized as two "isms", namely nationalism and racism. Nationalism is first and foremost economic. His speech is full of traditional mercantilism and trade protectionism, and it is an extreme (American) "national egoism". For example, he said, "For decades, we have developed foreign industries at the expense of American industries. Aid to foreign troops is represented by the consumption of American troops. Protect foreign borders at the expense of destroying the US border. " "We spend everything overseas, but our infrastructure is in disrepair and out of date. We helped other countries get rich, but our wealth, strength and confidence gradually disappeared on the horizon. Factories closed one after another and moved to other places, leaving millions of American workers behind. Wealth has passed away from our middle class, but it is distributed all over the world. " "Every trade, tax, immigration and diplomatic decision will take the welfare of American workers and American families as the primary consideration. We must protect our borders from other countries. They produce our goods, steal our companies and destroy our employment opportunities. " "We will take back our work. We will take back our borders. We will take back our wealth. We will take back our dreams. On our vast land, we will build new roads, highways, bridges, airports, pipelines and railways. We will put our people back to work instead of relying on welfare. Rebuild our country with the hands of American workers. We will follow two simple principles: buy American goods and hire Americans! "

These are also repeatedly expressed and emphasized by Trump during the campaign. It is also obvious that if Trump really does what he said, we will not only face trade protectionism in the traditional sense, but the world is likely to return to the situation that world powers competed for the world market in the 18 and 19 centuries. Trump did emphasize that "all countries have the right to put their own interests first." Here, there is no smell of international cooperation, and it is completely the spirit of a big country in the past.

Racism is a sensitive issue. Trump made a lot of racist remarks during the campaign and often attracted a lot of criticism. However, Trump also expressed it in his inaugural speech. There are two main aspects. First, he emphasized "United civilized countries". Of course, there is an antonym of "civilized country", that is, "uncivilized country". Who is a civilized country? Who is an uncivilized country? It depends on Trump's subjective definition. Second, anti-Islamic terrorism. This has been the theme of America for so many years. After the "911"terrorist incident, President Bush used the concept of "Crusade". Trump went further and declared that "we will shake them (Muslim terrorism) from the surface." This is a declaration of a new war against Muslim terrorism. However, the past history shows how to distinguish Muslim terrorism from Muslims in practice. This is a very difficult thing. Perhaps, this can easily become extreme racism.

Globalization and anti-establishment revolution

IPP: We have always believed that western democracy is mature and there will be no revolution. The United States, in particular, has always been regarded as a model of western democracy. Fukuyama emphasized that American democracy is so institutionalized that it is difficult to make necessary changes. But why did Trump launch a populist social revolutionary movement so easily?

Zheng Yongnian: No system in history has successfully stopped the populist movement. Authoritarian figures such as Hitler and Mussolini were all elected by the people. The degree of institutionalization of American democracy is indeed very high, but this refers to the organizational system. Trump easily put the whole organization aside, set up his own small team, and used social media to become president. The same is true of his future ruling style. The core lies in the small team he formed, and the formal organizational system may not be that important. This has also happened in the history of western democracy.

However, all populism is manipulated by politicians. As long as populism exists objectively, selfish politicians will manipulate and mobilize. Therefore, we people need to understand how western populism rises today.

In modern times, western populist politics is a staged response to the development of capitalism. The west has been dominated by capital politics since modern times, and politics is a response to capital logic. Politics brings uncertainty, but it also creates the possibility of change and reform. Without politics, capitalism will develop according to its own logic until it dies (as predicted by Marx).

Today's populism is similar to the political situation in19th century and early 20th century. The rising capitalism in modern times not only created great wealth, but also brought devastating effects to human society, such as income gap, social division, disintegration of the same body, Dickens' working class, Hugo's tragic world and so on. The socialist movement is a reaction to primitive capitalism. Through the socialist movement, capitalism has been transformed, that is, from primitive capitalism without humanity to welfare capitalism with more humanity. In some countries, mainly Europe, the socialist movement is the improvement or improvement of capitalism. But in other countries, the socialist movement went to extremes, that is, capitalism was destroyed by violence or political power, such as the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Of course, these countries eventually evolved into bureaucracy and poor socialism, which did not last long, but they all disintegrated in the early 1990 s.

Capitalism is also closely related to the anti-establishment movement of young students in the 1960s. The development of welfare capitalism has led to the great expansion of bureaucracy in major western countries, great damage to social freedom, social rebound and large-scale anti-establishment movement. However, in the 1960s, the anti-establishment faction was mainly professors and students in the intellectual circles, and did not extend to other social classes, so there was no general climate.

Although western countries have realized the great expansion of "one person, one vote" popular democracy and civil rights since the 1970s, in essence, contemporary western politics continues to be dominated by capital. In short, the Trump phenomenon is a response to the consequences of capital-led globalization that began in the 1980s. This new wave of globalization can be described as a capitalist revolution. The revolution itself is a response to western politics after World War II. After World War II, the western welfare society developed rapidly, the bureaucratic system also expanded at the same speed, and the country's ability to regulate and control the economy became stronger and stronger. For capital, such a regulated country effectively restricts the development of capital itself. So there was a capital revolution. Capital basically resorts to domestic and international tracks. Internally, there have been reforms led by neoliberal economics, such as Reagan Revolution in the United States and Thatcher Revolution in Britain, which mainly involved large-scale privatization and deregulation, that is, greatly reducing the government's control over the economy. At the international level, capital initiated and guided a new wave of globalization. For capital, this wave of globalization is extremely successful, reaching every corner of the world with no effort. The success of globalization is the result of many factors, including the profit-seeking power from western capital itself, China's reform and opening up and the disintegration of the former Soviet bloc.

However, globalization has also brought enormous social and economic problems to all countries. Although globalization has created unprecedented wealth, the distribution of wealth among social groups is very unfair. The vast majority of wealth flows to the vast majority of people, the vast majority of groups only get a small share, and more social groups become victims. As far as the United States is concerned, its middle class has decreased from more than 70% before the 2008 crisis to less than 50%. At the same time, although capital created the global economic crisis in 2008, it can still effectively transfer the crisis to the whole society and continue to go its own way.

Western society's anger at capital has been fully revealed. The crisis in 2008 led to the Occupy Wall Street movement. Since then, the anti-globalization movement has been erupting all over the west. Many elections also show this anger, such as the referendum in Greece and the referendum in Britain to leave the European Union. Trump's rise extended the movement to the United States, the stronghold of capitalism.

Trump repeatedly stressed during the campaign that what he did was not only an election, but also a social movement. Politics only allows him to create a possibility for this social movement, because only politics can create the possibility of change, especially for a highly institutionalized society like the United States. Politics, by its very nature, is machiavellianism. Throughout the campaign, both Clinton and Trump tried their best to resort to machiavellianism, that is, all kinds of dirty tricks. Trump's methods include: blaming the problems in American society on ethnic minorities, immigrants and free trade, and then blaming these problems on the existing system. He succeeded in turning the election into an anti-institutional social movement. Without the existing system, there is no hope for the United States. This is Trump's main message to voters. His opponent, Clinton, is portrayed as a representative and defender of the existing system.

Trump and Sanders

IPP: Will Trump's social revolution evolve into a socialist revolution similar to19th century? What he emphasized in his inaugural speech was not democracy and freedom, but social justice.

Zheng Yongnian: First of all, we can be sure that Trump is not trying to destroy capitalism, but to save it. The question is how does he save capitalism? At this point, he is separate from Obama and even more different from bernie sanders. Both Obama and Sanders tend to traditional European socialism, especially Sanders. After Obama took office, he began to carry out reforms such as medical care, which was beneficial to the poor, especially ethnic minorities. Sanders thinks that Obama's socialism is not complete, and he wants to build more complete socialism. Therefore, after Trump was elected, Sanders expressed his openness to Trump and even said that he was consistent with Trump on some issues. However, here Sanders may just pin his hopes on Trump and hope that Trump can engage in socialism.

So, will Trump engage in what Sanders thinks of socialism? The socialist welfare society in Europe is beneficial to the poor and a few vulnerable groups. In the United States, these groups are mainly the bottom white working class, Mexicans, Latinos, blacks and other groups. Ethnic minorities are the targets of hatred in Trump's election process. It is hard to imagine that Trump will promote this form of socialism; On the contrary, he believes that this type of socialism is the root of American social problems and needs to be eliminated. As I said before, judging from the content of his speech, Trump may be inclined to save American capitalism with traditional mercantilism, trade protectionism and economic nationalism.

Racism, means or goal?

IPP: Is the "racism" you mentioned earlier part of Trump's social revolution?

Zheng Yongnian: Yes. Racism has international and domestic dimensions. To understand Trump's "social movement", we must understand the great changes that American society has experienced in recent years. Trump was elected because he keenly grasped this social change, that is, the issue of American national identity brought about by demographic changes.

As early as 1993, Huntington, a professor at Harvard University, published the article Clash of Civilizations, discussing the influence of cultural (religious) identity on international relations. The impact of "clash of civilizations" on a global scale far exceeds that of the United States. When American cultural pluralism prevailed, many people thought that this view was politically incorrect. In 2004, Huntington published Who Are We? The challenge of American national identity (who are we? The challenge to American national identity directly focuses on American cultural changes. In the book, Huntington bluntly said that the national identity of the United States has been threatened by large-scale Latino immigrants, and warned that the United States may split into "two peoples, two cultures and two languages." And did this election in the United States ten years later confirm Huntington's prediction?

* * * and the party have always been regarded as conservatives and defenders of traditional American values. However, there are also fundamentalists and progressives within the Party. Progress and the Party also accept the principle of "political correctness". Under this principle, many social problems in the United States, especially those of ethnic minorities, have been ignored. However, these problems have always existed in the hearts of Americans, but it is not easy to discuss them openly, let alone put them on the policy agenda.

Now, Trump "borrowed" the name of * * * and the party, resorted to Machiavelli's way, ignored "political correctness" and raised these questions naked, thus contributing to his so-called "social movement". Trump has seriously "offended" ethnic minorities in a way that is unacceptable or even despised by white vested interests. But at the same time, Trump effectively inspired and encouraged the racial sentiment of white people. Trump's message to white people is that we are victims of ethnic minorities. To a large extent, this election is a referendum of white Americans. Various statistics show the differences between whites and non-whites. Most white men, whether with low education or high education, both men and women, voted for Trump; Minorities voted for Clinton.

If Trump is just a politician and only wants to win the election in machiavellianism's way, that's fine. But if Trump is an idealist and has the ability to realize his ideals and turn the means itself into a goal, then people will be very worried. People here have to think of Germany and Italy before World War II. Both German Nazism and Italian Fascism seized power with the help of populism, and then used power to change the political and economic structure of capitalism. The core of German populism is anti-minority, that is, anti-Jews, which has led to human catastrophe. From this perspective, there is no reason why people should not worry about the racist nature of Trumpism.

Trump's Global Populist Revolution

IPP: Can we safely assume that Trump wants to create a worldwide populist movement, not just in the United States?

Zheng Yongnian: This situation is not impossible. This is also a place that all countries in the world should pay attention to. Obviously, the rise of populism is a common phenomenon in today's world, whether it is left-wing populism or left-wing populism. In the developed west, right-wing and left-wing populism is booming, including Trump in the United States, the French National Front, the right-wing German New Choice Party, and the British Labor Party. Populism also exists in non-western developing countries and some countries in Asia and Latin America. It is no exaggeration to say that populism is popular in all countries in the world today, regardless of whether they are developed or not, whether they are democratic or not. The difference between countries is not whether there is populism, but whether politicians encourage populism and whether the government has the ability to control populism. Some countries have the ability to control, some countries express it in a democratic way, and some countries express it through violent social movements. Moreover, the populist movement is manifested in politics, that is, the fierce conflict between the grassroots and the elite or inside and outside the system; Moreover, in the contest between the two, some countries and regions have already seen the situation that grassroots people and outsiders win.

Trump's election as president is greatly accelerating the spread of populist spirit to the world. France's right-wing National Front was greatly encouraged and its political power expanded rapidly. Now people are beginning to worry about whether this year's elections in France will repeat the "Trump phenomenon". The rise of German right-wing political parties has brought great pressure to Merkel, the defender of traditional liberal politics. Merkel has made major adjustments in some aspects (especially immigration policy). Italy held a referendum on constitutional reform, and voters have already voted against it. The rise of the right-wing "five-star party" may evolve into a British withdrawal movement similar to Britain. All this shows that all countries in the world have once again entered a period of political turmoil.

More importantly, some core figures of Trump's Trump team, especially Stephen Bannon, the chief strategist, are very concerned about how to establish contacts with populist leaders around the world, especially in Europe. From the beginning, they praised populism, such as Britain's withdrawal from the European Union, the right wing in France and Italy, and attacked traditional western politicians, such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel. This is not only because Trump is looking for the support of international populist forces, but also seems to be shaping an international populist movement.

In that case, it shows that American foreign policy will be adjusted. Traditionally, the United States has engaged in various forms of "color revolution" in order to promote Western-style democracy abroad. But now it may be adjusted to engage in "populist revolution" everywhere. The two are different. The value of the "color revolution" is to establish western-style democracy, while the "populist revolution" is relatively simple, that is, to overthrow the organizational system, no matter what happens after the revolution. Trump is not interested in democracy. In his speech, he stressed that the United States will not impose its way of life (that is, democracy) on other societies. This is different from the previous presidents of the United States, because the previous presidents all wanted to spread American democracy to the world. This populist revolution is even more worrying because all countries in the world today have deep populist social forces. In the past, the "color revolution" in the United States relied on pro-western democratic forces, but Trump may support all forms of populist forces, no matter whether the forces here are pro-democratic or anti-democratic, right-wing or left-wing, as long as they can overthrow the organizational system. In other words, the populist movement is more destructive than the "color revolution". Although it is still unknown how Trump will spread the populist revolution to the whole world, it is enough to make those countries with strong populist social forces worry about their political security.

Populism and the Governance Crisis in the West

IPP: Will Trump's world populist revolution succeed?

Zheng Yongnian: Historically, populism has been heard, and it has been successful in some countries or regions, but it is not easy to create a worldwide populist movement. But even so, people should not ignore the populist movement. This movement has a profound economic and social foundation.

The rise of western populism is also a governance crisis in the West. This crisis is the product of the dual transformation of economy and politics since World War II.

Economic transformation is from national economy to global economy. To a great extent, the globalization of capital has been happening since modern times, but it has not formed a global economy like today. The so-called national economy means that all countries enjoy economic sovereignty. In the long stage of national economy, the foreign economic relations of various countries are mainly manifested in trade and investment. Although the distribution of benefits from foreign economic activities is unfair to all social groups in China, the government has the ability to adjust and compensate those social strata who have not gained too much benefits or even become victims through taxation and other mechanisms.

However, when the world enters the era of global economy, all countries have lost their effective sovereignty over global capital, or even no sovereignty at all. Today, except for a few closed economies like North Korea, no economy in the world can be said to be a sovereign economy in the traditional sense. In the era of global economy, capital has a high degree of autonomy, divorced from political and social constraints, and can realize its own globalization even if it encounters political and social resistance. Moreover, through globalization, most of the benefits of economic activities only flow to capital and a few members of society associated with capital, forming what the west calls a "rich economy." When capital can do whatever it wants, the government is in trouble. The tax base of various countries has been greatly reduced, and government revenue is scarce, so it is difficult to ensure social equity through traditional income distribution methods. The rich economy has increased the income gap within society, while the reduction of government income has lost the basic social equity.

The middle class is the guarantee of social order. However, today the global economy has hit the middle class. But from the perspective of employment, we can see the harsh environment of the middle class today. In the west, the middle class people see today has changed from the former industrial workers. But the global economy has produced two factors, which have changed the employment situation. First, the flow of technology. In the era of national economy, technology generates employment, and the production of a technology often drives the production of an industry, which is also the production (employment) of industrial skilled workers. But in the era of global economy, this situation has undergone fundamental changes. In order to seek the greatest benefits, capital often exports technology to other countries and regions, so the production of a technology can neither produce an industry nor industrial skilled workers (employment). Obviously, for a long time, the American working class has moved to the Pearl River Delta and other regions in China. Second, regionalization and globalization have also led to the flow of labor from backward countries to developed countries. This kind of movement is "illegal", such as refugees flocking to Europe, but also legal, such as labor mobility within the EU. Although this labor flow is rational in the economic sense, it has a great negative impact on the local labor force in developed countries in the sociological sense.

Today's technological progress is fatal to employment, even "catastrophic". The era of technology creating jobs has passed. Today's technology can not only create jobs, but also reduce them. This is the development of artificial intelligence. Last year's issue of The Economist (2065438+June 25th, 2006) was devoted to the issue of manpower. According to a study, in the next ten to twenty years, as many as 47% jobs in the United States will be replaced by automation; It is conservatively estimated that this ratio will reach 10%.

At the same time of economic and technological system transformation, it also experienced political transformation, that is, from elite democracy to mass democracy. Most of the western democratic history of more than 200 years is elite democracy, which is what Marx called bourgeois democracy. The popular democracy that people see today only began in the 1970s. In the early days of elite democracy, the government was only the "agent" of capital (in Marxism). In the later stage of development, the government protected the smooth operation of capital through conservative social policies and social protection. Generally speaking, in the stage of elite democracy, capital interests and political interests are highly consistent or even integrated. However, after entering the stage of mass democracy, political interests and capital interests began to differentiate. It used to be a combination of capital and politics, but now it is a combination of political and social forces.

The positive result of this change is that social policy has changed from early social protection to a comprehensive welfare society. Although the emergence of social policies has little to do with mass democracy, mass democracy has effectively promoted and expanded social policies. In the welfare society, democracy and welfare are almost integrated, and democratic elections often become "welfare auctions" among politicians. Voters who are regarded as rational actually don't need to do too much rational thinking when voting, simply looking at which political party or politician can bring more benefits to themselves. Social policies also have a great impact on capital operation. Social policy means the restriction and control of capital, not only in terms of high taxes, but also in terms of environmental protection and safety. Faced with various constraints and controls, capital began to flee from its own society. Capital flight also constitutes the driving force of the above globalization. Obviously, globalization, which began in 1980s, is capital-driven. This dynamic mechanism will not change much in the future.

Because of these great changes, today's world objectively needs a social revolution. As mentioned above, in the19th century and the early 20th century, the mass socialist revolution was the medium that promoted the transformation from primitive capitalism to more humane welfare capitalism. The main body of the socialist revolution is the revolution of the working class or the poor. The main body of today's revolution is the middle class. The most significant negative impact of globalization and technological progress is the primitive middle class. It is easy to understand that the middle class needs revolution.

However, although the revolutionary situation is taking shape, there are still many questions to be answered. First of all, what can we do to save capitalism? Socialism saved capitalism last time, so what kind of socialism will be used to save capitalism this time? As of today, there is no answer. The middle class and its agents have not put forward any effective alternatives except anger. On the contrary, some agents are more like destroyers than builders. Many observers pointed out that Trump's social revolutionary plan will not only impact the world order, but also the internal order of the United States. Today, most of Trump's plans are still full of emotional slogans, and how to turn them into reality is a big problem.

Trump's legitimacy crisis

IPP: From Trump's participation in the presidential election to his official inauguration, social protests in the United States continued and intensified. Where do you think the future will go?

Zheng Yongnian: This is the crux of the problem. Trump first faces a crisis of legitimacy as president. Trump only won the electoral votes of his opponent, Clinton, whose total votes were 5 million higher than those of Bitram. This fact prompted Americans to doubt its legitimacy. Later, Russia intervened in the American election, which caused an uproar and cast a shadow over its legitimacy. In addition, Trump's cronyism and the cabinet composed of billionaires, retired generals and radicals are all worthy of attention.

The United States is a developed society with a profound middle-class tradition and a good expression mechanism. If they are dissatisfied with the president, they will express it. If Trump is too contrary to the wishes of Americans, we can't underestimate the revolutionary nature of Americans. The United States not only has a "one person, one vote" system, but also a "one person, one gun" society. Trump must appease the society and stabilize as soon as possible. If the internal problems are not solved, it will be difficult for Trump to make a difference in the international community.

For Trump's actions, people can't just laugh at irony, but should take it seriously. In any case, we have entered an era full of uncertainty.

We will revive old friends and build new alliances.