What predictions of Hawking have come true?

20 10 hawking was interviewed by BigThink, a famous American intellectual video sharing website, and put forward five human predictions:

1.In 2032, the earth entered an ice age, and global warming: the problem of global warming has long been known to the world, and we humans have also taken corresponding measures to establish a low-carbon and environmentally-friendly life. But human activities will inevitably lead to global warming, which may eventually make the earth's temperature unbalanced, thus entering the ice age. This is the closest of Hawking's five predictions to the present.

2. In 2060, humans left the earth and immigrated to Mars: 1969, and humans landed on the moon for the first time. After the American moon landing program ended, no one landed on the moon for half a century. This is not the stagnation of science and technology, it is preparing for the future explosion.

3.2 100, human beings entered outer space and new species appeared: in 2006, Hawking attended an academic seminar in Mumbai, India. He said: If human beings do not destroy themselves in the future 100, the scientific level of human beings will hopefully develop to the point of landing on other planets in the solar system, and it is not unreasonable to enter outer space and breed new species from a new environment.

In 4.22 15, the earth will face catastrophic destruction: there are countless predictions about the end of the world, but none of them really hit the nail on the head so far. But the earth in 200 years, maybe. At that time, human science and technology must have been much higher than now, and the earth could not stand any global war.

In 2600, the earth will become a fiery "fireball": Hawking believes that with the growth of population, the earth's energy consumption will increase. If we can't find a better renewable energy source to replace it, the earth's resources will be consumed by human beings sooner or later.

Extended data:

Several predictions that may destroy the earth and mankind:

1, super volcanic eruption

Some studies predict that there will be a 1% chance of a super volcano erupting in the next 460-7200 years.

2. Resident Evil

Viruses and bacteria are more famous. In fact, fungi are the biggest killers of life on earth. According to the survey, fungi have caused 70% of global and regional extinctions, and now they are threatening amphibians, bats and bees.

In the 1940s, the potato famine in Ireland showed the destructiveness of this pathogen. At that time, pathogenic mold (an organism with a similar structure to fungi, usually attributed to fungi) wiped out as many as three-quarters of the potato crops in Ireland, resulting in 6,543,800+people starving to death.

Scientists estimate that there are 6.5438+0.5 million to 5 million kinds of fungi in the world, and only 6.5438+0.0 million kinds are known. Since 1995, the number of reports of new fungal infections in plants and animals has increased by 10 times. Gul pointed out that climate change may be the culprit.

Just like SARS, it also brought us great threats and panic. Another example is the recent bird flu. Death and threat are all around us.

3. Disasters from space

Space poses many threats to the earth. Solar flares often occur on the sun, which will generate powerful current in cables and burn out the power network. The last super solar storm happened at 1859, and it actually lit the telegram.

Another large-scale disaster is the impact of large comets or asteroids. 65 million years ago, an asteroid with a diameter of 10 km hit the earth, which triggered a mass extinction event at the end of Cretaceous. Meteorites with a diameter of 2 kilometers have the ability to cause local extinction, once or twice every million years in history.

Astronomers are trying to find and track asteroids near the earth, and scientists are also studying how to avoid any real threat.

It is less likely than celestial collision, but more dangerous and inevitable is the radiation shock wave produced by the close-range gamma-ray explosion. The most terrible radiation from space is a "short and intense" gamma ray burst, which is caused by two black holes, or two neutron stars, or a violent fusion of the two.

If this gamma-ray burst directly hits the earth within a distance of 200 parsec (1 parsec =3.26 16 light years, less than 1% of the diameter of the Milky Way), its high-energy radiation can make the ozone layer disappear by 30%, and it will be devastating to the earth. Such an event (estimated to occur once every 300 million years) will double the amount of ultraviolet radiation reaching the ground and kill phytoplankton, which is the basis of the marine food chain.

References:

Baidu Encyclopedia-Hawking Forecast