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Eurogroup's euro suffered a decline.
On Monday, Cyprus reached a preliminary agreement with three international parties to drastically reduce the scale of its banking industry in exchange for 654.38+00 billion euros in aid. The preliminary agreement made the euro rise in the Asian market early on Monday, but after entering the European and American time, the trend of the euro reversed greatly. The remarks made by the chairman of Euro Group were like a bombshell thrown into the financial market, and the euro plummeted by about 200 points in a short period of time.
In an interview with the media that day, Daisel Bloom, chairman of Euro Group, pointed out that he believed that the Cyprus aid program should become a so-called template, and the plan finalized over the weekend would effectively reduce the new risks that the banking industry in the euro zone may face in the future. He pointed out that banks facing difficulties should choose to save themselves. If self-help fails, the subsequent losses should be borne by the shareholders and creditors of the bank. If it is not enough, unsecured depositors will bear part of it, and finally it will turn to taxpayers in the EU and its member States.
The chairman of Euro Group said that the restructuring plan of the Bank of Cyprus should be a model for other countries in the euro zone, which once caused risk aversion. Although the Chairman later clarified his remarks, he stressed that Cyprus is a special case, and the aid plan should be based on the actual situation and should not be a template for other countries. However, it has caused harm to the euro. The rumors of Italy's downgrade and the expectation of the European Central Bank to cut interest rates all pose downside risks to the trend of the euro.
Daisel Bloom did not say that the Cyprus aid program should be a so-called template. What he actually means is that the rescue plan is formulated according to different situations, and there is no template available, but the market panic has long been under the bridge. The statement that the market thinks this is a template for future banking restructuring has sounded the alarm for the market. Cyprus rescue was originally a special case, but later it became a template, which made the market worry about the spread of the crisis.
The market is worried that the savings tax may trigger the transfer of funds from second-tier European countries to banks in Germany or the United States, which is the real risk of the spread of the Cyprus crisis. Although Daisel Bloom later clarified and softened his previous remarks, the market has interpreted this as suggesting that private sector self-help will play a huge role in future rescue.
Concerns about the European debt outlook may further depress the euro.
The market believes that concerns about the economic downturn in the euro zone, the uncertainty of the Italian political situation and the prospect of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank in the next few months are expected to put pressure on the euro. Investors are paying attention to the economic growth of European countries, and structural problems will continue to plague the growth rate of euro-zone countries. The Cyprus crisis is only a short-term hot event that affects market transactions. The real problem will return to the fundamentals, and the euro will be dragged down by weak economic growth.
The Central Bank of Cyprus announced on Monday night that all commercial banks in Cyprus will not resume business until Thursday, after it said it would allow some banks to reopen on Tuesday. In a statement, the Central Bank of Cyprus announced that in order to maintain the smooth operation of the entire banking system, all banks in the country will continue to be closed.
At present, the Cyprus government is formulating measures to implement temporary capital controls before banks open to prevent capital flight. Although the Cyprus aid agreement was finally reached, the negative impact of this incident on market sentiment may not be easily erased. After the opening of the Bank of Cyprus on Thursday, people's worries may still lead to the risk of a run.
There is still no progress in forming a cabinet in Italy. Belsani, leader of the Italian centre-left coalition, said overnight that he would not be able to report to the president on the cabinet formation process until Thursday. There are rumors that Moody's, a rating agency, may downgrade Italy's sovereign credit rating later, but the Italian Ministry of Finance refuses to comment on this at present, and the uncertainty of the formation of the Italian government may also limit the rise of the euro.
In addition, Bernanke pointed out in his speech that the current situation in the euro zone highlights the fact that there are still great difficulties in running a single currency among many different countries, which will be a valuable experience and lesson for future generations. In the past life, in the European debt crisis, we once again raised a sharp question, that is, how big the single currency area should be.
He said that although the euro zone, as a single currency union, has indeed achieved considerable success in many fields, such as the excellent performance of the European Central Bank in maintaining low inflation, the management of the euro zone still has considerable homework to do in narrowing the differences in economic competitiveness among members of the currency zone and coordinating the inconsistency of the economic cycle.
Bernanke therefore pointed out that since the European Union had planned to establish a banking union covering the whole of Europe, many troublesome problems might have been avoided if the so-called monetary union had been established at the beginning instead of rushing to launch a single currency.
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