Advantages and disadvantages of the west route project of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The problem of water shortage in the northern region and the South-to-North Water Transfer Project have always been a concern of the whole country. Especially in recent years, the persistent drought in the north has become a hot topic. Many experts and comrades have expressed many opinions from different angles. In the consulting project of "Strategic Research on Sustainable Development of Water Resources in China" of the Academy of Engineering, it was also studied as a subject, and a report was put forward, printed into a document and submitted to Vice Premier Wen. In today's forum, I think I can just look at the summary of the report and then perform it, or repeat my report to Vice Premier Wen here. Later, I thought it didn't make much sense ... so I finally changed my mind and wanted to talk about the relationship between many factors affecting the implementation of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in the forum for your reference. The water shortage in the north is obvious. It is not impossible to transfer water from the Yangtze River basin, which is rich in water resources, to the north according to the current level of science and technology and the country's economic strength. It seems natural and imperative to implement the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, but after decades of research and discussion, opinions are always divided. There are some complicated factors or people's views on some issues involved here. My speech mainly discusses the dialectical relationship between the two. Of course, we can only say some influencing factors, and they are all personal understanding. Please criticize the mistakes.

Relationship between water saving, tapping potential and water transfer

On the surface, it is easy to reach an agreement on this issue. The general formulation is nothing more than: save water vigorously and fully tap the potential to transfer the necessary water. In fact, people's understanding and emphasis will be different because of different positions and thinking angles. Some comrades emphasize the necessity, inevitability and irreplaceability of water transfer, and think that there is a limit to water saving and there is a price to pay. There is not much room to tap the potential, and some places have been overexploited. Moreover, there is no contradiction between water saving and water transfer, and the water transfer project should be started as soon as possible. In a word, water transfer is emphasized and water saving is less. Other comrades emphasized the importance and strategy of saving water and tapping potential. Only on this basis can we talk about lifting water, otherwise it will not be sustainable. Some comrades even said that if we don't pay attention to saving water, tapping potential and pollution control, large-scale water transfer will inevitably lead to great waste, pollution, destruction and corruption. This may be extreme, but it is not unreasonable. I think both of them make sense, but they are somewhat biased towards the latter. Why?

After all, water transfer is limited, which cannot change the basic pattern of per capita water shortage in the northern region. Therefore, we can only arrange development plans based on this (water shortage), adjust the speed of industrial structure and improve people's lives, but we can't set supply according to demand, which has caused great mistakes in the past.

Up to now, there is still a serious waste of water resources in the northern region, which is seriously short of water. There are many problems in industrial output value index of ten thousand yuan, water utilization coefficient, water consumption per unit area of agriculture, irrigation quota, utilization coefficient, and urban domestic water consumption. The per capita water consumption of cities along Beijing-Guangzhou, which is the most water-deficient, exceeds that of modern big cities like Amsterdam (but our living standard is very low)! I don't know how much water I missed when I was running, and some of them reached 3O%! It is an obvious fact that waste water and sewage are discharged in large quantities or directly reused without treatment. There are many examples of unreasonable allocation of water resources aggravating water shortage, but few people consider it, let alone take measures. Saving water and tapping the potential really requires investment, yes, but it is cheaper than water transfer. Pollution control is more expensive, which does not necessarily increase the amount of water, but it must be done. At present, people are more concerned about how to find the funds for the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, and less concerned about and promoting how to invest the funds in water resources protection in the first place. This is also a fact. Saving water is not only for the sake of economy, but also a matter of principle and ethos. What kind of society to build can be sustainable and can save water for the ecological environment? It is also a question of leaving more space for future generations. We should raise it to a high enough level to understand it. Saving water, tapping potential and pollution control are easy to make oral statements, full of inertia, do some superficial articles, or start doing it, and then it's still the same. Our old problem is that we prefer to engage in new projects, open source projects and visible projects, rather than being unsung heroes and cleaning up garbage. If we don't make up our minds to carry out reforms in terms of ideas and actions, policies and systems, the more water is diverted, the less attention is paid to water saving, tapping potential and pollution control, and a vicious circle will be formed. Just hit the problem harder. Of course, I am in favor of water saving and water transfer in parallel. It is not necessary to tap the potential before starting the water transfer project, which will be too late (it will take a long time to build). However, we suggest setting some reasonable targets for agriculture, industry and urban water use according to different situations. If the water consumption exceeds these indicators, the water will not be used when it reaches the door, so as to promote the mutual promotion of the two.

The second is the relationship between different water transfer lines.

After decades of planning and research, the water conservancy department has drawn up three water transfer routes: east, middle, west and north. Although some comrades put forward various other ideas, they all have such problems, and the depth of planning and research is even less. So up to now, the general pattern of these three lines in the water conservancy department is well-founded and basically appropriate. What about the relationship between the three lines?

From a macro point of view, judging from the water shortage in the whole northern region, in fact, the three lines not only have their own main water supply areas or main uses, but also can accommodate and complement each other. We describe them as three compatriots born to a mother, that is, they are all in need. The problem is that the scale of each project is extremely grand, and the investment of the main project needs tens of billions, hundreds of billions or even hundreds of billions, regardless of supporting facilities. It is always impossible (and unnecessary) to start work at the same time, which leads to the problem of' comparative choice'. The word comparison is not exact. Relatively speaking, the west line project is particularly difficult, and the preliminary work is more difficult and complicated. It directly transfers water to the upper reaches of the Yellow River, which is different from the clear water supply area in the middle and eastern routes. So it seems that we have to take a step back. This view is not much different. Of course, we must pay close attention to the preliminary work, which may be one of the effective ways to truly solve the water shortage problem of the Yellow River itself. The focus of the problem is the dispute between the eastern line and the central line. Different regions, different departments and different people really have different feelings about this, and there are endless arguments. In my opinion, the East Central Line is not only a compatriot, but also a twin. They are all aimed at solving the water shortage problem in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Beijing-Tianjin area. So there is no question of "comparison" or "sorting". (Speaking of sorting, it seems that after the first line is finished, another line will be started), but the advantages and disadvantages should be analyzed. Solve the existing problems in stages, complement each other and promote each other. It's better to have one who can't get on than to get ahead.

The advantages, disadvantages and conditions of the two schemes are actually clear. The main advantages of the Eastern Route Plan are:

● Take water from the lower reaches of the Yangtze River to ensure the water source.

● Make full use of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the Grand Canal that have been built in Jiangsu, with less engineering quantity and investment, simple technology (the Yellow Cave has already been opened) and quick results.

● It can solve the urgent needs of Shandong in the Far East. Its problem is that there is water pollution, and the water supply area is eastward, so it cannot be directly supplied to megacities. In addition, the relationship with Jiangsu should be solved.

The main advantage of the central line is to extract fresh water from Danjiangkou Reservoir, and the dedicated line directly supplies the cities along Beijing-Guangzhou, with a suitable location and the whole line flowing by itself. The question is:

● The water volume of Hanshui River is limited; What are the consequences of transferring up to 654.38+045 billion cubic meters of water?

● Danjiangkou Reservoir has been difficult to regulate for many years, and it is difficult to operate in the north and south, or in the north and south; The supply of water is unsustainable in a year. There is no large reservoir directly connected to the dedicated channel with the length of 1000 km, so the storage and operation are extremely inflexible, and there are still engineering risks (crossing more than 100 rivers).

● Large quantities of works, investment and immigrants. In addition, in the design of these two lines, the estimation of engineering quantity and investment is too small to varying degrees, which needs to be reviewed and revised.

Because the mid-line scheme is the focus of discussion, we have also done more research and put forward some suggestions. For example, reduce the scale of some water transfers (from 654.38+0.45 billion cubic meters to 654.38+0.3 billion cubic meters) to reduce the impact on the Han River. After crossing the Yellow River, the middle line is divided into high and low lines. The high-speed line is dedicated to cities along the line, and a small amount (about 2.5 billion to 3 billion cubic meters) ensures water supply; Low tide line is used in agriculture and ecological environment. When there is more Hanshui, you can adjust it more, and when there is less water, you can adjust it less. (Ecological River) Restore the face of the long-flowing river with lakes in Hebei. Some technical problems of the central line (such as crossing the Yellow River) need to be further studied and solved. The budget estimate should be completely revised, so that the problems existing in the two lines can be better solved. When conditions are ripe, they can be started one after another and in parallel by stages. At present, it seems that the eastern line may be earlier, but this will not affect the progress of the central line at all. In order to ensure the design quality, we also put forward the suggestion of' parallel design' or' recheck design'. Everyone should seek truth from facts, so that the South-to-North Water Transfer Project will be easy to start and effective.

Three. Policies and measures and the construction and operation of South-to-North Water Transfer Project.

The policies formulated by the state and the measures taken by the government will have a great impact on the construction and operation of any project. However, for a project like the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, the impact will be decisive. Without reasonable and feasible policies and measures, the South-to-North Water Transfer Project will be difficult to build, run smoothly and exert its maximum benefits, and even become a heavy burden for the country.

The South-to-North Water Transfer Project, no matter which route, is extremely large in scale and huge in investment. The influence area and degree are wider and deeper. When studying the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, people always think of technical problems, ecological environment problems and how much investment is needed first. After these problems become clear, it is natural to think: who will bear this huge investment? Who sold the transferred water to? What is the price of water? How to charge? Does the project repay the principal and interest? How to manage, operate and maintain? The solutions to these problems may be more complicated than technical problems, but the current research is not enough. If these problems are not solved well, the project will be difficult to start.

The simplest way is to do it in the era of planned economy. Everything is invested by the state, water is supplied free of charge or at a low price, how to distribute it is decided by the leaders, and the maintenance, operation and management are contracted by the government. This practice obviously doesn't work today. First, the country does not have enough economic ability to contract all the giant water conservancy projects, second, it does not conform to the principles of the socialist market economic system, and third, it is bound to encourage water waste and environmental pollution. This road is not feasible, and this practice will only rob and compete for water every day in the future.

Therefore, the South-to-North Water Diversion Project must be built and managed according to modern institutional mechanisms, and water supply cannot be provided free of charge, but this is one aspect of the problem. On the other hand, the South-to-North Water Diversion Project mainly exerts social and ecological benefits. It affects the development and sustainable development of important areas of the country, so it can not be built and operated in full accordance with the market mechanism, but should have its own special nature and form.

In view of the fact that the main purpose of the water transfer project is the society and the country, and the investment is very huge, the investment of the main project can only come mainly from the country, and mainly from the central government (financial allocation and bank loans). More reasonable are supporting projects (such as water network project of urban waterworks, agricultural irrigation ditches, etc.) ) is shared by local governments at all levels, beneficiary groups and individuals.

There is a charge for water, but it should be priced according to the situation. For example, water for ecological environment should be free; Agricultural irrigation water should be low-priced, and some loss-making countries should subsidize it; Urban domestic water and industrial water should be at higher prices, and they are also priced separately by industry and city; Secondly, there should be a quantitative difference in water price charges. Below a reasonable water consumption index, the lower the water price, the higher the water price exceeding the standard, and the higher the water price until the punitive water price is levied, that is, pricing by stages. In different seasons, the water price should be different for water supply with different guarantee rates. Water price not only refers to water transfer, but also includes all surface water and groundwater. Only rain is free. Otherwise, the water transfer price is high, and surface water and groundwater can be used freely. How to make rational use of water resources? The water price policy is not limited to water supply, but also should guide and control wastewater discharge and sewage control and treatment, otherwise, protecting the ecological environment and controlling pollution can only be empty talk. Water price is indeed a lever that plays a great role in water control, so it is extremely important to study and formulate a reasonable water price policy.

In this complicated situation, it is not feasible for the water transfer management and operation department to charge water users directly. Only the comprehensive water price can be displayed according to various water prices and water consumption, including local governments will "sell" and make specific adjustments themselves. Therefore, the relationship between the water transfer operation department and the government, as well as the water conservancy, finance, price and legislative supervision departments of local governments will be close and complicated, which deserves in-depth analysis and research. Only by seeking truth from facts, uniting and cooperating can we truly allocate and utilize water resources in the most scientific, reasonable and economical way.

In view of the concentration of investment in water transfer projects, water prices cannot be raised at will, and some of them must be supplied free of charge. The South-to-North Water Transfer Project will not be a profit point, and it will be difficult to repay the principal and interest, improve itself and develop. Therefore, the state should have preferential treatment in financing, repayment of loans, discount interest and immigration. In particular, local governments should contribute to it, rather than plucking their feathers to make a living. With the growth of national economic strength and the increase of central revenue, the government's support should also be increased. From this perspective, the South-to-North Water Transfer Project is essentially a government action and project, but it must be managed and operated according to the market model. In this project, the role of the government should not be abandoned or relaxed, but should be strengthened and properly concentrated in the central government. How can the inter-basin and inter-provincial water transfer project be expected to be implemented and achieve results?

The South-to-North Water Transfer Project will supply water from the water source to the vast cities and rural areas through 1000 km, spanning many provinces and regions. The key is that all regions, departments and even everyone should consider the overall situation and long-term interests, and put the interests of regions, departments and individuals in the second place from the highest interests of the whole. In other words, be a little "Longjiang Spirit". Many good and reasonable water conservancy plans in history have not been implemented, one is not a technical problem, the other is not an economic problem, but the interests of various regions and departments are difficult to adjust and opinions are different. Passion surged at the meeting, for fear of humiliating the country (his small kingdom) and even developing into a long-term water conservancy dispute. Some water conservancy departments are busy coordinating and cooperating, which is worth learning. For water conservancy planning, it is really necessary to study it carefully, give consideration to the interests of all parties, consider historical factors, and make a decision after repeated consultations. In this process, we should give full play to democracy, but there is always an optimal plan and there are always gains and losses. Once the plan is formulated, approved or even legislated, it must be implemented. There is no coordination problem here, and no more bargaining is allowed. The key is to have selfless, overall and local leading cadres. When assessing and appointing cadres, the national personnel department attaches great importance to youthfulness, specialization, academic level, doctorate and master's degree, and conducting public opinion surveys ... These are all necessary, but it is more basic to assess whether he has a "selfless" overall view. Some people say, how to evaluate this? In my opinion, a leading cadre's performance on issues involving the contradiction between overall interests and local interests is the best, which is enough to judge whether this cadre can take on big responsibilities and heavy responsibilities, rather than a shortsighted person who specializes in pursuing short-term political achievements and fawning on the masses. I suggest that the personnel department pay a private visit and attend some water conservancy meetings, which will be good for them.

Four. Several problems of southwest water transfer and current water conservancy work

Finally, let me briefly talk about the so-called southwest river water transfer, which is also the so-called west line water transfer. The South-to-North Water Diversion mentioned above means transferring water from the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River to the north. Although the Yangtze River has a large amount of water, it is impossible to transfer water indefinitely, and some effects are still unclear. If the third line between China and the West is realized according to the final plan, about 50 billion cubic meters of water will flow from the Yangtze River to the Yellow River every year, which is equivalent to doubling the water volume of the Yellow River. How much impact it has on the Yangtze River to the Yangtze River estuary needs further study. The western part of China occupies half of the country, mostly arid, semi-arid and desert areas, and the population, cultivated land and economic scale are difficult to compare with the eastern part. Many comrades believe that the key lies in water. With water, we can make great progress and "build a new China" like the East. It is definitely not enough to transfer 50 billion cubic meters of water to the east (mostly for the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain), so I advocate transferring water from Lancang River, Nujiang River and even Yarlung Zangbo River in the southwest to the northwest, and transferring water100 billion or even 200 billion cubic meters. A lot of articles have been published in this field, and I don't think this is good. Writing science fiction is a good subject for some things, really.

I don't doubt that most people who put forward this idea are people with lofty ideals who care about the country and the people. But Mr. Wang's ambition is great, but Mr. Wang's trip is impossible. It is necessary to study the necessity and feasibility of such a thing. Enthusiasm, kindness and fantasy alone will not help, and even make things worse. This kind of project is not only too difficult, the investment is astronomical, and many problems are unimaginable, and some people will doubt whether it is necessary. In the past, we always emphasized that "man can conquer nature" and we should conquer and transform nature to make it work for me and meet my requirements. This formulation is not comprehensive enough, which makes us suffer a lot and owe us a lot of debts. It is time to realize that the demand and transformation of nature are not infinite. We should learn to adapt to and coordinate with nature, and carry out rational development and construction on the basis of sustainable development. China's population is as high as1600 million. Should we live in the west in 800 million? We have about 2 billion mu of arable land. Is it necessary to develop another 2 billion mu in the west? The appearance and conditions of the west are arid and semi-arid areas, which are formed by thousands of years of historical development. Is it possible and necessary to completely transform it into the same as Jiangnan? Trees are everywhere, rice waves are everywhere, and this is the beautiful mountains and rivers? It is better to keep a low profile and see cattle and sheep. These are all worth pondering. Some comrades said that whether it is necessary or not, there is at least no harm in doing some research. In my opinion, it is of course necessary to study the natural conditions, resources, environment and development planning of the western and northwest regions, but it is impossible to seriously carry out a "feasibility study" or even set up a preparatory office according to some fantasies. It is necessary to prevent some ambitious leaders from getting hot-headed, obsessed with the big pie falling from the sky, delaying what they should do, throwing away all the original reasonable and feasible plans ... and to prevent some people with ulterior motives from taking the opportunity to cheat. There are too many liars in society now. In addition, deception is becoming more and more complicated and scientific ... here, the correct guidance of the media has a lot to do with misleading. I also want to take this opportunity to appeal to everyone that the socialist media should have its purity and principle, not pursue sensational effects or economic benefits, and be responsible for the people and history. Do more research and study, and look back at your own reports and propaganda in a few years, and it will not be popular. In short, things like transferring water from the Yarlung Zangbo River to Xinjiang are still the same as opening a gap in the Himalayas and introducing the Indian Ocean warm current to the northwest. It is better to treat it as science fiction first, not as a serious matter. My evaluation of it is a couplet: "painting cakes to satisfy hunger" and "nonsense"; Horizontal criticism is "an idiotic dream".