On the Economic Problems in Latin America

Persistent recession is hard to see improvement-the present situation and prospect of Latin American economy

According to the communique just published by the World Bank, after a short recovery in 2000 and a basic stagnation in 200 1 year, the economy of Latin America and the Caribbean will shrink by about 1. 1% this year, which is the worst recession in the past 20 years. Latin America has become the region with the worst economic record in the world, and the prospect of 2003 is still bleak, which will be the lowest growth rate among all regions. According to the statistics of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America, the unemployment rate in this region has reached a record 9%, and the problem of poverty has once again become prominent. The reasons for this economic situation in Latin America are, on the one hand, the global economic downturn and, on the other hand, the Argentine crisis. Excluding Argentina, although the growth rate in Latin America has slowed down obviously this year, it can still grow by 1%.

This year, the economic recovery of developed countries led by the United States is weak, which makes the whole world economy continue to be in a downturn, and also dashed the hope that the strong economic growth of the United States will drive the Latin American economy at the beginning of the year. The price of basic export products (mainly primary products) in Latin America has dropped by 15%, with a large decline in exports and a high current account deficit (accounting for 2.2% of GDP). Foreign direct investment is 40 billion US dollars, far below the average level of 73 billion US dollars at the end of 1960s. Moreover, due to the harsh international lending conditions, in addition to the emergency rescue loans from international multilateral institutions, direct investment has basically become the only way for Latin America to obtain foreign investment, so the capital flow in the whole region has reversed again. As in the 1960s, Latin America once again became a net exporter of capital. Regional investment in fixed assets fell to the lowest level in 10 years, and the total international reserve was150 billion US dollars, the lowest since 1998 Russian crisis.

Argentina is experiencing the worst economic crisis in history. This year, the GDP is expected to decline by 12%, the idle rate of industrial capacity is 80%, and the unemployment rate is as high as 2 1.5%. More than half of the country's population lives below the poverty line, the domestic market is shrinking, and the turnover of supermarkets and large shopping malls is down by 33% and 17% respectively. The crisis in Argentina first affected neighboring countries. Brazil's exports to Argentina decreased by 80%, Chile's exports to Argentina also decreased by half, and financial turmoil broke out in Uruguay, which is closely related to Argentina's finance. The currencies of these three countries have all depreciated, and the economic recession in Argentina is one of the reasons. The impact of the Argentine crisis on other countries in the region is less direct. Due to the sharp drop in the bond prices of Argentina and Brazil, it is difficult for Latin American countries to issue bonds, which is 50% less than last year and the annual interest rate is as high as 15%.

According to the forecast of ECLAC, the economic growth in Latin America in 2003 was between 2.5% and 3%, which was not enough to improve the employment situation and reduce the poverty population. Some experts believe that Latin America has experienced another "lost five years" since 1997. During this period, the per capita output value in this area decreased by 2%, and the poverty-stricken population increased to 44% of the total population this year (compared with 43% last year). The extreme poverty rate rose from 18.6% last year to 20% this year, and the poverty population increased by 7 million. It is increasingly difficult to achieve the goal of reducing the poverty population by 50% by 20 15 years. The persistent economic recession, high unemployment rate and insufficient social expenditure in Latin American countries have caused social tension. However, due to external pressure, governments have limited room to adjust macroeconomic policies such as finance, exchange rate and currency to promote recovery. It has been pointed out that Latin America may enter a long period of low growth. There is a big gap between the expected prospect of the economic model widely implemented in Latin America in the 1990s and the current actual situation. The development of the situation in 2002 highlighted this gap, and people have many questions about the economic and social sustainability of the current development model and rules. Argentina used to be a model of implementing the current model, but now it is the most severely punished. It is of universal significance to analyze the example of Argentina.

Generally speaking, the full implementation of neo-liberalism (the market decides everything) and the passive intervention in globalization have made Argentina's economy highly external, too dependent on foreign countries, and the country has lost its economic autonomy. The market principle of looking at numbers only rather than people intensifies polarization, resulting in a sharp increase in the number of poor people, insufficient domestic demand and unsustainable development. This is the key to Argentina's current problems.

In the process of full privatization, due to the lack of domestic capital, almost all the major state-owned enterprises in Argentina were acquired by foreign capital. In fact, many foreign capitals, such as Spanish capital, which ranks first in Argentina, are also from the international capital market circle, not their own capital. Privatization has become alienation. Only seven of China 100 large enterprises are domestic, while telecommunications, water, electricity and aviation are monopolized by foreign capital. Seven of the largest banks in 10 are foreign capital. 90% of hydrocarbon production is controlled by foreign capital, which controls 90.4% of Argentina's exports and 63.3% of its imports. The national finance is maintained by borrowing, and the solvency has become the only criterion to measure the state of the national economy. International evaluation agencies have the power to stifle Argentina's economy: if you say that you are at high risk, capital will flee, and no one will believe your government's statement. Neo-liberalism believes that as long as the cake is bigger, the share of all walks of life will naturally increase. In fact, it was in the mid-1990s when Argentina's economy developed at a high speed 1968+ 1990 that the number of poor people began to increase, the original middle class became poor, domestic consumption declined, and growth lacked stamina. There is a theory that the reason of famine is the geometric growth of population and the arithmetic growth of grain. However, the growth of Argentina's grain output far exceeds the population growth, and the tragedy of children dying of malnutrition in this world granary has aroused people's deep thinking.

According to traditional economic theory, active fiscal and monetary policies should be adopted during the recession. Argentina's economy has fallen to the extreme, but it can't adopt any policies to stimulate production, because creditors demand that Argentina continue to adopt austerity policies to ensure its solvency, which is also the key reason why it is difficult for Argentina to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund. Argentina's public debt is about $654.38+050 billion. From now until the end of 2003, the debt owed to multilateral institutions such as IMF and World Bank alone was $654.38+03.2 billion, while Argentina's international reserves were only $654.38+00 billion. Almost all Latin American countries face the same debt problem. The debt of Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, is more than twice that of Argentina, and the crisis in Latin America is actually a debt crisis.

Argentina was severely punished for announcing the suspension of debt repayment, and Venezuela's Chavez government was isolated for deviating from neoliberalism. However, Lula of Brazil and Gutierrez of Ecuador have recently won the general election in succession. These are representatives of political factions with anti-neo-liberal tendencies and skepticism about globalization, reflecting that Latin American people are rethinking the gains and losses of economic reform in 10, summing up experience and seeking a development path more suitable for their respective national conditions.