The latest situation in Libya

A few days ago, Libya's "National Transitional Council" military announced that the ruling authorities had successfully captured Gaddafi's second son Saif in the Sabha area of southern Libya, but the ruling authorities refused the participation of the International Criminal Court in the trial of Saif. Gaddafi's power family has fallen apart. How will the situation in Libya develop in the future? Can the future be as the West wishes? In many ways, the new Libyan regime shoulders great responsibilities.

Libya, which has experienced war, is devastated and everything needs to be done. The economy is riddled with holes and tribal armed conflicts are numerous, but Gaddafi remains the same. Six million Libyans are full of hope for the "post-Gaddafi era". If their wishes are not met, the psychological gap of disappointment will be great. Libya has complex regional, tribal and ethnic conflicts, and there are many factions within the ruling authorities. The formation of the transitional government is progressing smoothly. On the one hand, the ruling authorities should prevent Gaddafi's martyrdom from being used by other forces to incite tribal violence. The bigger problem is how to resettle and manage anti-Gaddafi militia groups and prevent them from competing for political capital in the post-Gaddafi era. 165438+1On October 23rd, some tribes in Libya indicated that they did not recognize the newly established Libyan transitional government.

According to preliminary statistics, during Gaddafi's 42 years in power, about 4,000 to 5,000 people have disappeared in Libya. From February to June this year, about 25,000 people went missing in the civil war. The Libyan ruling authorities also targeted Gaddafi and his supporters with practical actions and killed him immediately after his arrest. This also raises a very realistic question: will the future fall into a vicious circle of revenge and fail to establish a new democratic and civilized system? The Security Council took note of the "Liberation Declaration" issued by Libya's "National Transitional Council" and expected Libya to quickly establish an "inclusive and representative" transitional government. The Council strongly urges the Libyan authorities to take all necessary steps to prevent retaliation, arbitrary detention and extrajudicial executions, and has the responsibility to protect its people, including foreign nationals and African immigrants. In the future, it is an urgent and important task for the Libyan ruling authorities to lead all walks of life to work together to heal the country's wounds, achieve national reconciliation and avoid bloody retaliation.

Another important task of Libya's ruling authorities is to recover the huge property lost overseas by the Qaddafi family. It is reported that Libya's oil export revenue in 20 10 reached 45 billion US dollars, and most of this money belongs to the Qaddafi family and their personal friendship. It is estimated that the Qaddafi family has $33 billion in assets, and another $60 billion in global assets is "not counted". Of course, it is really difficult to recover these assets in the future and how much. Many overseas wealth may eventually disappear.

As Franois Heisbourg, director of the French Institute for International Strategic Studies, said, for NATO, the joy brought by the end of the Libyan war will not last long. Not only are there still difficulties in Afghanistan, but what is more serious is that there are also many security risks in Libya. Because NATO is facing a huge problem, that is, whether Libya can become the kind of country that western countries expect, there have been many media reports that there are many Islamic radical forces and even some Al Qaeda members among the anti-Gaddafi militants. These forces are time bombs and thorny issues in the future political situation in Libya, and the fruits of NATO's "victory" may be stolen by extremist forces.

After the National Transitional Council took control of the capital Tripoli, disputes between different armed factions continued. A large number of weapons, including a large number of portable air defense missiles, are lost, and western intelligence agencies are worried that some of them may fall into the hands of extremists, which will seriously threaten the safety of civil aviation first. In view of this, Jalil, chairman of Libya's National Transitional Council, called on NATO to extend its military operations in Libya until the end of this year.

After Gaddafi, the feud between Libya and the West for more than 40 years has undergone essential changes. The distribution of oil interests is an important driving factor for bringing bilateral relations closer, and will also affect Libya's post-war domestic and international situation. The Libyan war is coming to an end, and all NATO countries want to strive for the best interests and launch a diplomatic offensive against Libya. For example, the outside world analyzes that the United States will find ways to recover the military expenditure of 654.38 billion. During her visit to Libya, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stressed that she hopes to consolidate the relationship with the Libyan ruling authorities and establish a "long-term, in-depth and extensive partnership" between Murray and Libya.

As early as September, when the situation in Libya changed radically, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister David Cameron visited Libya and promised to support Libya's reconstruction. British Foreign Secretary Haig announced the official reopening of the British Embassy in Tripoli 10 in mid-October, and appointed john jenkins as the new ambassador. Haig said that Britain will continue to provide support to Libya in medical care, public safety and economy. The British Foreign Office appointed Dominic Asquith as the new ambassador to Libya. Pierre Lellouch, French secretary of state for economic and trade affairs, led an official delegation of more than 80 French enterprises to visit Libya.

Libya's ruling authorities pay attention to safeguarding national security and sovereign independence, showing that they are not attached to western countries. 10 At the end of June, the military spokesman of the National Transitional Council said that NATO had achieved positive results in combating Gaddafi's armed forces. Libya welcomed the UN Security Council's decision to lift the no-fly zone on June 10 and June/3 1 0, but said that "Libyans are now able to defend their motherland, and we are stronger than before." He also said that it is possible to allow some foreign military advisers to help Libya train and modernize its army.

The new regime is facing major diplomatic adjustments different from Gaddafi's. While maintaining good relations with western countries, efforts should be made to change Gaddafi's unfriendly relations with the mainstream countries of the Arab League and pay attention to moving closer to major Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia and Egypt. In addition, the new regime may not be as close to the AU as the Qaddafi regime.

Western countries are generally worried that Libya will return to Islamic fundamentalism and deviate from the process of building a democratic country in the West. For example, the spirit of the new marriage law has caused a lot of controversy. In June+10, 5438, Jalil, the chairman of Libya's National Transitional Council, said that Libya would take religious teachings as its legal basis, and the laws in conflict with it were invalid, such as the marriage law prohibiting polygamy in Gaddafi's era. Although polygamy is widespread only in rural and tribal areas, even so, the news that Libya may implement "polygamy" has caused different reactions, especially the women who participated in the overthrow of Gaddafi are puzzled and angry. In order to dispel doubts, Libyan Transitional Committee Chairman Jalil once again publicly assured the international community that "Libya will be a moderate Muslim".

Western countries are also worried about the future value and ideological trend of Libya. Victoria nuland, a spokeswoman for the State Council, stressed that Libya should establish a democratic politics that conforms to international human rights standards and a unified country that belongs to all Libyans. (