Why should I pay for Americans?

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The poor in the United States are different from the poor in China. The poor in the United States are all fat. I heard that one in four Americans is now obese. Because the United States has unemployment benefits, you can have enough to eat even if you don’t work. If you don’t work, people will gain weight. It was this fat black couple who sat outside the door to bask in the sun every day without going to work. They also bought two houses. You see, I bought HSBC stocks with my money, and HSBC lent my money to Americans like this to buy a house; they both were able to borrow money from HSBC to buy a house without having to pay it back. In fact, not only did I buy their accommodation and food, but also their cigarettes

1:

The mother of a friend in Hong Kong is the most loyal I have ever seen A stock fan, the old lady worked as a nurse all her life. After retiring in 1989, she became a professional stock fan. As long as the market is open and rain or shine, she goes to work in front of the stock machine in the bank lobby. The old lady's stock trading is different from others. She only trades in one stock, and that is HSBC, the largest bank in the Hong Kong stock market. The old lady’s trading method is also very special. She sets a bottom line for herself every once in a while. For example: In 1998, I asked her about her stock trading experience. She said: "I don’t care whether the market is big or not, and I don’t look at other stocks." , I only focus on the "Big Elephant" (the nickname given to HSBC by Hong Kong investors). As long as it falls below 100, I will sell. , many Hong Kong stockholders, and even many financial experts and fund managers suffered losses, but this old lady from HSBC suffered no losses at all.

The old lady’s husband is a traditional Chinese medicine doctor. Unfortunately, a man who can cure other people’s diseases cannot cure his own. Before he was fifty, he left his two middle school daughters to his wife. The old lady raised two daughters by herself. The eldest daughter became a Western medicine doctor and the younger daughter became a lawyer. After the two daughters got rich, they wanted to buy a new house for the old lady, but the old lady, who had been thrifty all her life, refused and still lived in the old apartment building that was more than 30 years old. The old lady's only hobby was to make money by stock trading, so she spent all the pocket money given by the two girls on HSBC.

I asked her: "Why do you like HSBC so much?"

The old lady said: "My first bank account was opened with HSBC. The ATM card belongs to HSBC. The staff of HSBC started calling me Miss and then Grandma. I grew up with HSBC and their service is good. I feel at ease. "The old lady is a typical Hong Kong person. People, HSBC is their pride and their bond of affection. Before 1997, Hong Kong was a colony and had no embassies or consulates in other countries. Therefore, Hong Kong people traveling overseas will have a special feeling in their hearts when they see the words HSBC.

Her daughter laughed and interjected: "My mother goes to the HSBC Bank shareholders meeting every year, and every time she comes back she says the buffet is delicious."

I know HSBC Bank It is the company with the most dispersed shareholders among Hong Kong listed companies. I heard that HSBC's articles of association stipulate that the shareholding ratio of any single shareholder cannot exceed 2%, so every shareholder is a retail investor. HSBC is a typical company with complete separation of ownership and management rights. The board of directors is its real boss, and the shareholders' meeting is basically a rubber stamp. Although the number of people attending HSBC's shareholders' meeting every year is much larger than that of other listed companies, the vast majority of attendees are like this old lady, and they actually go there for the buffet.

Of course, not all of them are there to eat. In 1998, when the chairman of the board of directors of HSBC, Mr. Purvais, retired, an old man from Hong Kong dedicated a Chinese poem to him at the shareholders’ meeting. The main idea of ??the poem is: HSBC is rooted in Hong Kong, serves the public and operates well. It has survived through storms for 140 years and has treated its shareholders well. I am grateful to HSBC’s parents for providing food and clothing... It turns out that this old man is also a fan of HSBC stocks. He has not bought non-HSBC stocks for 20 years and ended up being speculated. Multi-millionaire, now retired with no worries about food and clothing.

In 2003, I met an old lady again in Hong Kong. She was getting younger and younger with each passing day. I asked the old lady wearing jeans and sneakers: "How much should I buy from HSBC now?"

"If it falls below 130, I will buy it." The old lady answered me confidently.

Her daughter told me behind my back that her mother had made more than 2 million in the past ten years by speculating in HSBC. But she is still reluctant to spend it, and her daughter has to pay for every meal; the New Year's money given to her grandchildren every year does not exceed 100 yuan. She once told others that in the future she would donate the money to build a bridge in her hometown of Puning, Guangdong, which she had only returned to once.

Before the Spring Festival in 2008, I received a call from her daughter: The old lady had been traveling around the world on a cruise ship for half a month. Next Tuesday, her world’s largest cruise ship docked in Sydney and asked me if I had any questions. No time to receive his mother?

I know that this kind of luxury cruise ship is specially for wealthy elderly people. A trip around the world costs at least tens of thousands of dollars. I asked her: "Your mother has always been frugal, why did you suddenly spend so much?" "Get up?"

She smiled and said, "You will know when you meet her and talk to her."

On January 15, 2008, the ship known as the largest in the world had. A golf driving range, 4 swimming pools, 12 restaurants, and a cruise ship with 2,000 service personnel docked at the sea passenger terminal opposite the Sydney Opera House. The old lady got off the boat wearing big sunglasses. She is almost 80 years old and walks a little slowly.

My wife and I drove her around Sydney. It was noon and we asked her what she wanted to eat.

The old lady said: "The best place to eat, where is the most expensive place to eat in Sydney? I'll treat you."

I quickly said: "You came all the way, how can I treat you? ?"

The old lady said somewhat self-deprecatingly: "Huang Sheng, I won't trade in stocks now, I want to spend the remaining money!"

I sat down in the restaurant, I was busy. Question: "Haven't you always been very good at speculating? Why don't you speculate anymore?"

The old lady said: "I have been speculating in stocks for more than ten years, and I only speculated in HSBC just to be safe and avoid risks." The 1997 financial crisis and the Internet bubble happened, but who knew that this time the US subprime mortgage also affected HSBC. It wrote off more than 10 billion US dollars in bad debts, and its stock price has almost dropped back to 10 years ago. I have made money by speculating on it for so many years. I can't sleep; I've lost money and can't sleep because of my heartache. As a result, I've been working in vain for more than ten years, and the bridge I promised to build in the countryside can't be repaired. It's all my fault. Everyone in the stock market knows that you should never be full of money, but the older you get. The more greedy I am, the more I want to earn enough money to build the bridge as soon as possible. As a result, I have been working on roller coasters for the past few years, and now I have only a little bit of capital left. It seems that it is destiny to make money. What I can't figure out is: I don't understand that subprime loans are excusable. I'm just a dentist and nurse. But the senior executives of HSBC who sit on the podium at every meeting are blue-eyed and yellow-haired foreign professional elites. How can they be ignored by those Americans? "The poor black people were deceived?"

I said: "How do you mean the poor black Americans were deceived?"

"Isn't it just the poor people in the United States who borrow money from the bank? I won’t pay it back; will the bank shareholders foot the bill in the end?”

The old lady took a sip of water and continued: “My grandson got married in the United States in January this year, and my daughter took me to my grandson’s house in the United States. There is a fat black couple in their 40s and 50s, each weighing at least 100 kilograms. Each of them weighs as much as the four of us Hong Kong people. The couple sit outside the door and bask in the sun every day when they are not at work. They are very friendly people. Every time I pass by. Say hello to me. My grandson told me that the poor in America are different from the poor in China. The poor in America are fat because they have enough to eat without working. The couple also bought two houses, one of which was on the corner of the street. Because they could not repay the mortgage on time, the bank had repossessed it and was going to auction it. The house they lived in was also going to be repossessed, but the Bush administration came out to rescue the market in January and refused to let it go. Banks collect houses from poor Americans, so the two of them still live in that nice house. Not only do they live well, I think they eat well every day. As soon as noon comes, the man will drive him away. The big truck-like pickup truck went to McDonald's and bought back two large packages of hamburgers, French fries and an extra-large cup of Coke."

The old lady got a little excited. I hurriedly said: "You need to eat two bites of food first."

The old lady said: "No, I won't say it. Now I will say it when I see people. It is natural law to kill people to pay for their lives, and to exchange money for debts. If you don't pay it back, the world will be in chaos. Why do Hong Kong people work so hard? Because no one will give you free money. During the financial crisis in 1997, so many people bought Li Ka-shing's houses and became negative equity, but Li Ka-shing had so much money. Not even a penny was given to those who went bankrupt by buying his house. Not only did the fat American couple live well and eat well, they also smoked! Cigarettes in the United States are so expensive, costing almost 50 Hong Kong dollars a pack! Looking at it, I understood that I actually paid for the hamburgers they eat every day. You see, I bought HSBC stocks with my money, and HSBC loaned my money to Americans like this to buy houses; The two of them were able to borrow money from HSBC to buy a house. Of course, they don't have to save money to buy a house like us Chinese. So, they can eat hamburgers every day. In fact, it's not just their house. , food, and even their cigarettes, I bought them!"

2:

The old lady finished speaking, and then asked me: "Huang Sheng, I heard about you! Now I'm teaching at Peking University. You said, am I right to read?"

I stared at the old lady's eyes and was speechless for a long time. I quickly picked up the water and took a big sip. I know that it requires a very complicated process to turn the old lady's money into the fat couple's hamburgers, but the old lady's logic seems to be correct.

I said: "Yes, that's the case. But there are also many poor white Americans."

My wife stepped in and said: "Then I lost money when I bought QDII in 2007 Did the Americans eat all the money?

The old lady smiled bitterly and said, "Yes, they are so fat because they can borrow money that they don't have to pay back." One in four Americans is obese, and diabetes has become the second most prevalent disease.”

My wife said, “Is obesity related to race and eating habits?”

The old lady said: "Don't listen to the nonsense of those experts. Hong Kong people of our generation have all suffered from hunger. If we don't have money to eat meat, we can only eat vegetables. If we don't have money to buy vegetables, we can only eat pickles or rice. I didn't see who was it at that time." Big fat guy. It's a good thing now. Many Hong Kong children have become obese. There are only a few who have money to keep their mouths shut.

Why have I never seen African black people so fat? ”

I said: “Then you have decided not to lend money to Americans anymore?” "

"Yes! I have figured it out now. I will no longer buy hamburgers for Americans, and I will not repair the bridge in my hometown. I want to see the world while I can go. "The old lady glanced at the Sydney Bridge outside the restaurant and said thoughtfully.

I said: "Not many people can think of you.

The old lady drank half a glass of white wine and became excited, and then said: "I heard that the United States has lent China hundreds of billions of dollars. Do you think China will be as stupid as me and give it to the United States?" People foot the bill? You see why the United States has clear water and beautiful transportation everywhere. Is it because it was built with money from the Chinese? "

My wife said: "It's possible. The Chinese government is like the Chinese people. They are afraid of poverty and spend 50 cents on one dollar they earn. The U.S. government is like your grandson’s poor neighbor, who spends two yuan on every dollar they earn. Whose money does the U.S. spend? I guess some of them are Chinese.

The old lady said: "Then tell China quickly, stop lending money to Americans, and spend money quickly like me!"

I said: "You can cruise on the river alone, but how can you spend a country?" "

The old lady said without hesitation: "Hey! I thought about China when I saw that couple in the United States chewing hamburgers every day. The first thing I have to do is convert the fat on the American body into Chinese teeth. "

She saw that I didn't understand, and continued: "I have been a dental nurse all my life. I know that although Chinese people do not eat meat and chew bones as often as Westerners, their teeth will not work until they are old. ; Especially rural people show their teeth at the age of fifty or sixty. Why? Because China does not have enough dental equipment, most Chinese people cannot take care of their teeth regularly. If every Chinese could get a dentist to clean their teeth twice a year, the smiles of the Chinese people would definitely look better than they do now. Therefore, if I were to be the Prime Minister of China, I would buy the best dental equipment in the world and set up a dental clinic in each village to clean the teeth of every Chinese for free. ”

Postscript: Bankers are also human beings, and their poop stinks.

On the third day, the old lady went to Chile with the cruise ship, but Americans eat hamburgers, so the old lady The question of paying the bill was left to me. It was the end of January 2008, and the global stock market was in a state of turmoil under the influence of US subprime mortgages. No one in the world could tell what consequences subprime mortgages would bring to the world economy. What investors know is: everyone has less money now.

According to the old lady’s logic, investors cannot have a lot of money because they are all eaten by Americans eating hamburgers; according to investment. The logic of analysts and fund managers: How much should investors pay for bad debts in U.S. subprime mortgages? According to incomplete statistics online: UBS will write off $13.7 billion in bad debts, Citigroup will write off $11 billion, and Merrill Lynch will write off $8 billion. The profit is US$3.7 billion, HSBC is US$10 billion...even the Bank of China in Hong Kong has to write off its debt.

Who is UBS? It is the third largest bank in Europe. Who is Citigroup? It is the first in the world. Big banks. Merrill Lynch is the world's third largest investment bank, Morgan Stanley is the world's largest investment bank, and HSBC is the world's third largest bank.

Why are the world's top bankers excluded from the United States? Are subprime mortgages ruined? These bankers are not ordinary people. They manage almost 70% of the money on the planet. They are the most knowledgeable people on the planet about investment risks. That is why we deposit our money with them. They manage money for us; we don’t know how to invest, but they choose stocks for us; and it is precisely because of this that they can make money every year that ordinary people can’t make in a lifetime.

We all understand. There is a saying that "if you always walk by the river, your shoes won't get wet". Everyone can forgive professional experts from making mistakes occasionally. However, the subprime mortgage in the United States has caused all professional experts in the banking industry around the world to get their shoes wet, which is a bit unreasonable.

Although subprime mortgage bad debts emerged all at once, the money was loaned out one after another. Some people estimate that the amount of subprime mortgage loans in the United States may reach 100 billion US dollars. What is the concept of 100 billion US dollars in real estate loans in the United States in 2007? The median price of residential housing is US$220,000, and assuming a 75% mortgage for each house, that is 600,000 houses. This includes the valuation of each house (U.S. housing transactions are mainly second-hand houses), the qualifications of each lender, and Income review. Think about it, how many first-line loan officers, second-line experienced loan managers, and third-line senior bank loan supervisors are required to sign on every loan document? Including the higher-level bank executives who only need to sign the loan amount and do not need to sign on each loan document.

Have so many people who specialize in managing money for the people not mentioned to the bank leaders? Xing'er: "This kind of loan is too risky! These low-income people have no ability to buy houses. As soon as house prices fall, banks will have to repossess the houses and write off the loans. ”

I believe that the financial elites employed by these world-class banks who receive astronomical salaries cannot fail to see this risk?!

However, the fact is: they are exactly Collectively forgetting their professional knowledge, these bankers who best understand investment risks in mankind collectively contributed to the largest loan scandal in human history; and then it became inevitable for global investors to pay for Americans' subprime mortgages.

We must know that the market value of these large banks accounts for almost 15% of the global stock market. Which investor can escape?

Is there something wrong with some star in the sky that made these bankers and bankers collectively stupid during that time?

No, in fact they are the originators of subprime mortgages in the United States. They invented subprime mortgages - loans with second recourse to the collateral. Why did they invent this loan? Because the interest rate of this kind of loan is higher than that of ordinary loans, of course the risk is also greater.

In fact, subprime mortgages have existed for a long time. They first appeared in the United States in the 1980s and were used for corporate leveraged buyouts. The so-called leveraged buyout is like borrowing money to buy a house. People who want to buy a company don't have enough money, so they have to borrow part of the money from the bank to afford the company. Generally, for the sake of loan security, banks need to use the assets of the purchased company as collateral before agreeing to the loan; If a loan secured by the assets of the business plus the acquirer's own capital is not enough, the person buying the business will have to seek a loan that accepts higher risks - a subprime secured loan, in which the collateral for the loan is that when the business goes bankrupt, The residual value (if there is any) after the assets are sold to repay the secured loan; since only the residual value of the assets can be guaranteed, this kind of loan is naturally risky and the interest rate is naturally high.

The reputation of subprime mortgages is not so notorious. It is just an ordinary high-risk and high-yield financing tool. The loan recipients are mainly entrepreneurs. The bad debt rate of subprime mortgages has been controlled to an acceptable level in the past. range. But when bankers used this tool to house poor Americans, the world was in chaos.

I believe that the banker who first used this loan method for housing loans in the United States was a genius, because he knew that the United States was politically stable and economically developed, and everyone on earth wanted to go there; but no matter how vast the land is, the land is limited. , so American houses, including those of the poor, will also appreciate in value; when house prices rise, there will be a surplus after selling the house to pay off the replacement loan; this surplus value can provide security for new loans - subprime guarantees. Wow! Think about it, what a huge loan market it is.

3:

As a result, the poor Americans who were originally shunned by banks are now knocked on the door by bank loan officers: "Do you need to buy a new car?"

“Get out! I can’t afford it.” The poor man thought he was another salesman knocking on doors all day long.

"If you can afford it, the value of your current house has increased."

"Where can I live if I sell the house? Besides, I still have 20 years to pay off the mortgage." said the poor man.

“You don’t have to sell your house, you just need to revalue the house and agree to use the appreciation part as a guarantee, and our bank can lend you money; not only that, we will also give you a free valuation, if you If the value of your house increases enough and your loan amount is large enough, the loan fee will be waived."

The eyes of the poor are bright: "How can such a good thing happen in the world?"

"Yes, this is the advantage of owning a house in the United States. No one who owns a house in the United States is considered poor, because people all over the world want to turn their money into dollars, and people all over the world want to come to the United States; so the dollar There are so many, there are so many immigrants; when there are more dollars and more people, the value of your house will increase, and you will become a rich man; banks specialize in helping the rich, so we come to visit you. "The loan officer fluently repeated what was said during the bank's internal training. < /p>

The loan officer said: "No problem, your house will put you on the millionaire list in less than three years. The bank will lend you more money by then. Are you still afraid of not paying it back?" Such a small amount of money?”

Don’t worry, the poor man knows this trick. What he does at the end of each month is to use the money from the new credit card to pay off the old credit card.

"Well, I'll borrow $30,000!" The next day, the 50-year-old poor man, who had been driving for 35 years but had never driven a new car, drove home a brand new car with a displacement of 5 liters. General pickup truck.

On the third day, the poor man’s neighbor was also knocked on the door by the loan officer. This neighbor had not slept well all night and was waiting for the loan officer. His house had one more bedroom than the house he bought the new car from, so he gritted his teeth and took out a loan of 70,000 yuan. However, he did not buy a car because he had ambitious goals and used the 70,000 yuan loan to buy a bigger house. Less than two months after he bought it, a loan officer from another bank knocked on the door, this time offering him a subprime mortgage for his second house.

As a result, at the end of the 20th century, the American poor were boiling, and American real estate was boiling. World-class bankers can't sit still. How can such a large piece of pie be allowed to be monopolized by just a few regional banks? As a result, the world's largest bank, the second largest bank, the third largest bank, the world's largest investment bank, the second largest investment bank, and the third largest investment bank all stepped in one after another. Europe's largest bank, the second largest bank, which has always been known for its stability, The big banks and the third largest bank couldn't sit still anymore; Japan's four major banks, which even lost their pants in the United States twenty years ago, came here again panting in shorts; they had just received money from investors and wanted to The Chinese bankers who rushed into the first echelon of the world also shouted the slogan "Revolution comes sooner or later" and bit the tail of subprime mortgages.

Then the American poor laughed, because there were more competing banks, loan conditions were naturally getting looser, and interest rates were getting lower and lower.

A large number of mortgage companies emerged, and a large number of companies came into being that specialized in fabricating personal incomes for poor people who did not know how to lie. Accountants, lawyers, and insurance brokers all became subprime pimps, as long as they could get mortgage business. Sold to the bank.

Unfortunately, economic games always have a small number of winners. The correct judgment that investors need must be the judgment of a few people; if most people are right about something, the result will definitely be a disaster.

Money from all over the world has been flowing into the United States, and the real estate bubble has formed in the United States. The housing prices in New York and Los Angeles have doubled in three years, and the housing prices in Boston and San Francisco have increased by 70% in one year. Even in the central and southern regions where the population is decreasing year by year In this area, houses can also grow by 30% a year. Builders and real estate developers have accelerated construction, building more houses in one go than the United States can absorb in ten years - one out of every 7.5 houses is vacant.

What is an economic crisis? The standard answer from traditional economics: excess productivity. No wonder some people say: "The disaster of subprime mortgages may be no less than the Great Depression of 1929, the largest in human history.

It is said that the FBI has sent people to several major banks in the United States to start investigating whether there is any evil In addition, the governments of two American cities have brought more than 20 major banks to court. In the lawsuit, the prosecutors claimed that these world-class banks provided money to the cities. They are the destroyers of the city, because at that time they knew that the poor could not repay the money and still lent them money. Now they have started to take over the houses and drove the poor people to the streets.

" Lend money to those who can pay it back. " is the only sentence engraved on the doorpost of mankind's first bank. But today, the world's top bankers have collectively forgotten this oldest creed. This is as absurd as a normal person who does not know that breaking the law is wrong. . Why did these human financial elites make this mistake together?

I believe the reason behind it should not be as simple as the greedy bankers forgetting their common sense. The owner of a brick kiln cannot be so unconscionable as to violate the law and force people into slavery just for the sake of profit.

There is a herd theory in psychology, which says that when a group does the same thing, individuals tend to lose. Self. For example, if everyone does something dangerous together, you will be less afraid; if everyone does something bad together, you will not feel so bad. I believe these bankers must have discovered that their peers are doing the same. Therefore, I relaxed my vigilance and thought: As long as the United States survives, the world will need U.S. dollars; as long as these U.S. dollars continue to flow into U.S. real estate, the money I borrowed will always be recovered. There must not be one black brick kiln boss in Shanxi, there must be a group of black bosses in the local area. When they see that others are forcing people into slavery in this way, they think that the law does not punish the public. This is the same as the students who beat their teachers during the Cultural Revolution. Similarly, if the first student spits on the teacher, the second student will hit the teacher in the mouth, and the third student will kick the teacher. Then, all the students will cheer and shout slogans to knock down the teacher.

Psychology also reveals a human psychology of obeying authority, which is that people are not easy to challenge authority and always think that authority is more correct than themselves. I believe that those bankers began to see the financial elites they admire and admire. By engaging in subprime mortgages, you surrender your power to think: “The risk of subprime mortgages does not seem to be high. "At the same time, those elites working for world-class banks all believe that: we are the world's largest bank, we have the world's smartest risk analysts and the most complete risk analysis system, and they let us do subprime mortgages. There must be no problem with the loan. Look, these decision-makers who checked the depositors at all levels became the executioners of the massacre of the Jews in World War II because they stopped thinking in the face of authority.

The third one. The reason is related to people's pride. The market is a game of swimming against the current, and it took me 28 years to become the CEO of the world's third largest bank. It took the bank 140 years to become the world's third largest bank. During my term of office, we must not let it go backwards. Although U.S. subprime mortgages are risky, the pie is so big that it can determine the ranking of banks. Therefore, I can only go to the tiger mountain knowing that there are tigers in the mountain, because if I don't go, it will be bad. No longer a tiger. The boss of the Shanxi Black Brick Kiln is also a very powerful person in the village. When he saw that his neighbor's Erlei could make a fortune of ten thousand yuan by hiring a few idiots to bake bricks, he couldn't stand it anymore. , I dare not pay wages to see who can become a 100,000-yuan household first! Man, man, who wants to fall behind?

Writing this, I began to feel at ease. It turns out that the bankers are also. Human beings, their shit stinks. Ordinary people’s shit stinks, at best, their own toilets. When bankers shit stink, it stunk the global economy.