Sunac's performance forecast in 221

Another large real estate company went crazy. According to the news of Finance Association on March 23rd, Sunac China proposed the corporate bond "2 Sunac 1(163376. SH) "should have been resold on April 1st. On the day of the news, "2 Sunac 1" closed at 36.83 yuan, a decrease of 41.54%.

The "2 Sunac 1" plan is extended for 24 months from April 1st, and the principal and the balance are repaid quarterly, with a large amount of 5% on July 1st, 1% in the next three quarters, 15% in the next three quarters and the remaining 2% on April 1st, 224. In addition, Sun Hongbin, Chairman of Sunac China, will provide unlimited joint liability guarantee for this bond.

"2 Sunac 1" was released on April 1, 22, with a scale of 4 billion yuan, accounting for 4.78% of coupon rate. The term is 2 1 1 years, that is, the bond issuer has the right to decide to adjust the coupon rate of the current bond at the end of the second and third years of the term. Bondholders have the right to choose the end of the second year and the end of the third year to sell all or part of the bonds held in the current period back to the issuer at face value.

the downgrade faces greater debt risk.

Recently, international rating agencies downgraded Sunac China (1918.HK) almost simultaneously. On March 24th, Fitch announced that the default rating of Sunac China's long-term issuer was lowered from "B-" to "CC", and its senior unsecured rating and outstanding senior unsecured notes were lowered from "B-" to "CC", and the recovery rate remained at "RR4".

March 23rd, Standard & Poor's. Standard & Poor's Global Rating released a report, revoking Sunac China's "B-" long-term issuer credit rating and "CCC" senior unsecured notes long-term issuance rating.

previously, moody's also issued an announcement on March 22nd, downgrading Sunac's family rating from "B1" to "Caa1", and downgrading its senior unsecured rating from "B2" to "Caa2".

in the negative outlook, Moody's emphasizes that there is uncertainty in the company's ability to solve all due debts through new loans or asset disposal in the next 6-12 months.

The downgrade of credit rating further increased Sunac's debt risk. It is reported that Sunac's overseas private debt of about $3 billion, as well as related syndicated loans, has been accelerated due to the recent downgrade. The company is currently trying to communicate with these investors.

enterprise early warning data shows that Sunac Group has 9 bonds, including the aforementioned "2 Sunac 1", with an existing scale of 16.749 billion yuan, of which the balance due in June this year is 1.44 billion yuan. The amount of 4 bonds, including 2 Sunac 1, 2 Sunac 3, 16 Sunac 7 and 16 Rongdi 1, which have reached the resale period this year is about 7.83 billion yuan, totaling about 9.2 billion yuan.

sunac has 12 USD bonds in China, with a scale of USD 7.74 billion, of which two USD 1.2 billion bonds will expire in June and August this year respectively; It will expire at $2 billion in 223 and $2.61 billion in 224.

apart from bonds, the overdue commercial tickets of sunac China are more serious. In gub, Sunac China, it was reported that its 2, commercial tickets were overdue for half a year. Sky Survey shows that since February 223, Sunac China has had more than 2 judicial cases of bill recourse disputes. In addition, Beneficial Trust Network shows that in 221 alone, Sunac obtained at least about 11 billion yuan in financing through trust, of which nearly 6.7 billion yuan will expire this year.

sunac's "selling" can't repay the debt.

in the first two months of p>223, sunac China achieved contracted sales of 5.28 billion yuan, down 26.5% year-on-year.

on March 21st, sunac China announced that the profit attributable to owners of the company in 221 will decrease by about 85% compared with that in 22, and the core net profit will decrease by 5% compared with that in 22. Regarding the reason for the sharp drop in net profit, Sunac China said that it was mainly the investment loss caused by the company's disposal of shell stocks. In addition, due to the severe market situation in the real estate industry in the second half of 221, the company's sales revenue and gross profit margin declined, and factors such as inventory impairment also affected its performance.

On the same day, Sunac China said that due to the recent epidemics in mainland China and Hongkong, travel and logistics were restricted, and the audit procedure of the company's 221 annual report could not be completed as scheduled. Therefore, Sunac China cannot publish the audited annual results on or before March 31, 223, and plans to publish the unaudited annual results on March 31, 223.

China sunac holdings co., ltd.

in the first half of last year, sunac's operation was still in normal operation. On August 3, 221, Sunac China announced the interim results report for 221, showing that the company achieved operating income of 95.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%; The gross profit was 19.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%; The net profit of returning to the mother was 11.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%; Earnings per share was 2.62 yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year.

by the end of June 221, Sunac China had a total debt of 997.122 billion yuan, cash and its equivalents of 11 billion yuan, and pre-sale supervision funds of 22 billion yuan. Judging from the indicators of "three red lines", Sunac China stepped on one of the "three red lines" only because the asset-liability ratio after excluding advance payment was 76%.

However, Sunac's debt structure shows the result of the company's thunderstorm. At the end of June, 221, of Sunac's total liabilities of 997.122 billion yuan, < P > the total current liabilities were 754.961 billion yuan, the non-current liabilities, mainly long-term loans, were 242.161 billion yuan, and the balance of short-term loans within one year was 9.96 billion yuan, accounting for nearly one third of the total loans of 33.5 billion yuan in the current period.

in order to cope with the debt, sunac began to raise funds in the fourth quarter of last year through asset disposal, equity financing and interest-free loans to major shareholders, including the sale of shell shares, equity in several projects in Shanghai, Hangzhou and Kunming, the sale of office buildings in Shanghai Hongqiao business district, hotels and office buildings in Hangzhou core area, etc. According to incomplete statistics, Sunac has withdrawn about 3 billion yuan through the above methods, but it is still unable to repay its debts. Related Q&A: What happened to Sunac recently in 221? We expect the market to be fierce in the second half of the year. Li Yeshua, reporter of China Housing News, reports from Beijing that many people say that Sun Hongbin has changed. The evidence is that in recent years, at the performance conference, Sun Hongbin, who used to have frequent golden sentences, spoke more restrained and low-key than in the past. Not only has the style of speech changed, but Sunac China, who has always appeared in people's field of vision as a "master of land acquisition" and "master of mergers and acquisitions", has also begun to shout "reducing risks" and "safety first". "We need security now. If we still take land as in the past, we will swallow up a lot of profits; At present, all enterprises have no way to acquire at any price. " On August 31st, Sunac held the investors' meeting on the interim results of 221 in China, and Sun Hongbin said at the meeting. "Sunac's first goal in the next three years is to reduce financing costs, and we must make the credit rating investment grade. To this end, we must not only reduce the debt ratio, but also reduce the debt scale, because in this case, the financing cost can be reduced. " He believes that the "three red lines" are reasonable policies and give a three-year grace period, which is a more pragmatic indicator. According to the data of the semi-annual report in 221 disclosed by Sunac China, what Sun Hongbin said is true, and Sunac China's "three red lines" indicators are continuously improving. As of June 3, Sunac China's asset-liability ratio after excluding advance receipts was about 76%, down by about 2.3 percentage points from the end of 22; The net debt ratio is 86.6%, which is about 9.4 percentage points lower than the end of 22; The ratio of short-term cash debt is about 1.11. In terms of operating income, as of June 3 this year, the contracted sales amount of Sunac China was about 32.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 64.3%; The income was about 95.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%; Gross profit was about 19.98 billion yuan, up 12.5% year-on-year; The gross profit margin was 2.8%, down 2.2% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%; The core net profit was about 13.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of .8%. As of the close of August 31st, Sunac China reported HK$ 19.9 per share, up 1.95%. "The second half of 221 may be rather tragic." At the beginning of 221, Sunac China set a sales target of 64 billion yuan. Halfway through 221, this goal has been achieved. The gross profit margin decreased slightly year-on-year under the circumstance that all aspects of revenue data rose gratifying. However, according to the performance report, after deducting the impact of revaluation, the gross profit is still at a good level in the industry, with a gross profit of about RMB 25.31 billion and a gross profit margin of about 26.4%. At the same time, the information provided by Sunac China shows that the total saleable resources in the second half of 221 will exceed 66 billion yuan, which will lay a good foundation for performance growth. In the eyes of many investors, Sunac China's annual sales target is a high probability event. Sun Hongbin is slightly pessimistic about the real estate market in the second half of 221. He said that the market was better in the first half of this year, and the market pressure was great in the second half. "This year's market is particularly good like the first half of 218, and loans are more difficult; Loans are as difficult in the second half of the year, but sales have fallen sharply. We expect the market to be fierce in the second half of the year. " In Sun Hongbin's view, there are two reasons why the market is not good in the second half of 221: First, some enterprises are under pressure to cut prices; Second, the national policy is relatively firm, the market has the expectation that house prices will not rise, and the economic pressure is relatively large, so the purchasing power will be affected. Some investors called on Sun Hongbin to summarize the characteristics of "Thunderstorm" enterprises in the market, such as "Thunderstorm" and "Broken Capital Chain". In this regard, Sun Hongbin said, "It is very difficult to understand other companies. The enterprises that have problems have actually seen it two years ago. The emergence of problems must be comprehensive, either because of layout problems, or because they are expensive to buy, or because of strategic problems. Either the products have problems or the money has been removed." "If the land bought in 217 has not been sold yet, it will lose a lot of money now." Sun Hongbin said that many enterprises bought expensive land in 217 and the first half of 218, and found that they lost money when they sold it, and then they didn't sell it. I told them to sell the lost land quickly, and do something new after selling it, and you lost more when you kept it, and you didn't know what you were waiting for. "Leave a safe boundary" This is not the first time that Sun Hongbin said at the performance meeting that he would "control land acquisition". However, Sunac China, which talks about "controlling land acquisition", acquired a lot of land in the first half of 221. According to the data of Kerui, as of June 1th, Sunac * * * took 41 cases of land in the centralized land supply, ranking first among real estate enterprises in China and 11 cases more than Vanke, the second place. At the shareholders' meeting in May, some investors asked Sunac China about land acquisition. In this regard, Sun Hongbin responded that Sunac's land acquisition through the open market accounts for about 1/3 of the new land reserve. Although the amount of land acquisition in recent months seems to be relatively large, many projects have partners, and in fact Sunac needs to invest a little money. "Taking Hangzhou as an example, Sunac took four plots of land, three of which failed to reach the stage of competitive self-sustaining. The self-sustaining parts of these plots were finally taken away by the original price of the partners, ensuring the profit margin. In addition, the overall equity ratio of 4 plots of Sunac is 52.5%, and the actual investment is half. " Sun Hongbin said. In July, it was reported that the ratio of land acquisition to sales of real estate enterprises should not exceed 4%, and the real estate enterprises included in the "three red lines" pilot project have been required by the supervision that the amount of land acquisition should not exceed 4% of annual sales. The statistical scope includes the expenditure of land acquisition in the open market and land acquisition through mergers and acquisitions. At the same time, some insiders said that the above-mentioned land acquisition and sales ratio is calculated on the basis of equity, not full-caliber statistics. According to Sunac's China Performance Report, in the first half of 221, the company acquired 213.5 billion yuan of equity land storage value, and the sales ratio of equity land acquisition was 37.9%, which was just below the standard. If the time is extended to one year (from July 22 to June 221), the company's equity acquisition and sales ratio is only 28.5%. At the same time, Sunac China said that in the second half of 221, it will actively control the total amount and pace of land acquisition and prudently acquire high-quality land. It is estimated that the sales ratio of equity land acquisition will be controlled within 2%, and the annual sales ratio of equity land acquisition will be controlled within 3%. Regarding this land acquisition goal, Sun Hongbin said, "In the second half of 221, the market pressure will be greater, including the financing market and sales, so we should set a relatively safe boundary for ourselves. If we still take the land as in the past, we will swallow a lot of profits. We need safety now. " At the meeting, Sun Hongbin also talked about the relationship between mergers and acquisitions and liabilities. "At present, no matter what the price is, there is no way for all enterprises to acquire, because I have to acquire your debt at the same time." Sunac China has a firm attitude towards debt reduction. "Sunac should not only reduce the debt ratio, but also reduce the debt scale." Sun Hongbin said that the company will reduce the financing cost from the current 8% to less than 5% within three years, and its credit rating will be investment grade. In the first half of 221, Standard & Poor's upgraded Sunac's main rating to BB, with a stable outlook; Moody's and Fitch upgraded their rating outlook to positive. JPMorgan Chase is also optimistic about Sunac's strong fundamentals, high net profit level and expected declining financial cost and leverage level, and maintains a "buy" rating. Sustainalytics, the world's leading ESG rating company, also upgraded Sunac to a "low risk" rating, ranking first among 7 domestic participating real estate enterprises. However, Sunac China, unwilling to acquire, just spent 9.91 billion yuan to acquire 8% equity of Zhangtai Group in April this year. It is reported that there are as many as 54 M&A projects with total assets exceeding 48.7 billion yuan. What is the logic of this acquisition? From the data point of view, as the largest local real estate enterprise in Guangxi, Zhangtai's sales in 218-22 exceeded 2 billion yuan for three consecutive years, of which the full-caliber sales in Guangxi reached 22.45 billion yuan and the equity sales reached 16.14 billion yuan in 22, ranking first. According to Guangxi's commercial housing sales of 425.15 billion yuan in 22, the market share is about 5%, surpassing Country Garden. In the first quarter of this year, Zhangtai continued to lead with 4.744 billion yuan, and the growth expectation is improving. As for liabilities, Huang Haitao, chairman of Changtai Group, once said in an interview, "Our' three lines' are all green, and the net debt ratio is very low, only 1%. The money deposited in the bank is more than the money we borrowed from the bank. We don't owe the government a penny, there is no breach of contract, and the capital situation is very good." Perhaps this is the reason why Sun Hongbin dispelled the doubts about the acquisition. For the M&A market in the second half of 221, Sun Hongbin is not optimistic. "At present, the opportunity of M&A market is very small, because every enterprise has a debt ceiling, and M&A will inevitably lead to an increase in the total debt of enterprises. Although the policy does not have clear requirements for the decline in the total debt scale of housing enterprises, there are requirements for the debt ceiling." Related Q&A: Sunac China is suspended, what should I do with my house?

hello! As long as Sunac ensures that the delivery of houses, payment from suppliers and financial institutions will not be affected, it is not the key to suspend trading or not, and it has little impact on your house. The key is to see if Sunac can survive the debt crisis.

It is reported that Sunac, like other housing enterprises, has a "liquidity crisis". Simply put, if the house can't be sold, it will have to pay back the money and spend money. There is no money and it can't stand it.

I can't stand it, so I'm naturally embarrassed to write a financial report. Without financial reports,