What issues do economists agree on?

Viewpoint: At present, the real estate bubble in the Mainland is serious, and vacant houses should be sold out as soon as possible. Regarding the specific time when the bubble burst, Xie Guozhong said that "house prices will not collapse at once, but will fall by 7% every year and 80% for 20 years, just like the stock market."

Land prices will not go up all the time.

Xie Guozhong believes that land appreciation is the driving force of China's economic and housing price increase in recent years, and this appreciation has created virtual profits. In some places, land prices have even increased by a hundredfold. The land price in Zhejiang is four times that in Britain, and the land in the suburb of Ningbo is12100000 mu. The average price is similar to that in Tokyo.

"Now eighty or ninety percent of Zhejiang is engaged in real estate. The ultimate economic foundation in many places such as Zhejiang is that land is scarce and land prices are always rising. " Xie Guozhong thinks this view is wrong. The price of land is related to per capita land area and income. Even in the populous Japanese, Hongkong and Taiwan Province provinces, after a period of development, the land price eventually declined.

Xie Guozhong said that the core problem in China now is the land bubble. Now officials and real estate developers believe that land prices will rise forever, which will only lead to the loss of money in the land.

It is an illusion that house prices will rebound in retaliation.

"Last year, China sold 6 trillion yuan of housing and nearly 3 trillion yuan of land. At present, most of the local fiscal revenue comes from real estate. " Xie Guozhong believes that our income has been linked to the rise in housing prices.

"Many people think that once the regulation is relaxed, house prices will rise in retaliation. This is actually an illusion of manufacturing. " Xie Guozhong said that it is impossible to let house prices skyrocket now, but the desire to spend money is growing. It is impossible to get so much money if house prices fall. The contradiction between the two leads to the strategy of "relaxing inside and tightening outside" in dealing with real estate problems. On the one hand, it gives space for real estate development, on the other hand, it suppresses real estate on the surface. I hope everyone will not speculate excessively and create the illusion that house prices will rise as long as they are deregulated.

As for how long this situation will last, Xie Guozhong said he didn't know.

It did not exist in the second round of urbanization.

Xie Guozhong disagrees with the view that a new round of urbanization has created a large number of urgently needed houses. "There are 300 million people in our city. Now there are only old people and children left in the countryside. It is impossible to have a new round of urbanization. Take Shanghai as an example. The average family in Shanghai has several houses. When Shanghai was urbanized 50 or 60 years ago, they rented their houses to new immigrants, and many people lived in one room. When they wanted to sell these houses, the population began to decrease. "

At present, real estate development in third-and fourth-tier cities is booming, and many cities have built a large number of houses. Xie Guozhong believes that there are more than 200 million square meters of houses in the Mainland, many of which are vacant. The leaders of every city thought that migrant workers would buy a house to live in, but in fact, the population has not increased, and many migrant workers in cities simply can't afford to buy a house. He cited Taiwan Province Province and Japan as examples to prove that there is a surplus of houses in China.

"1992, Taiwan Province and Japanese real estate peaked at the same time and began to decline. Taiwan Province Province is different from Japan, and Taiwan Province Province is a bit like the mainland. It has more than 3 million families and1100,000 empty houses. As in Chinese mainland, this figure was reported by power plants at that time. When real estate speculation, everyone's mentality is rising and then rising. Later, someone threw cold water on you, saying that the house was empty1100,000. Who said that? According to the power plant, there are/kloc-0,000,000 houses without lights.

Taiwan Province's housing prices have fallen sharply, which is different from that of Japan. Japan has been declining by 7% every year for 20 years, and Taiwan Province Province collapsed at once, especially in places like Keelung. In Taipei, the price drop is not obvious because the population is still rising. Now the population of Taiwan Province Province has stopped rising, so the prices in Keelung and Danshui are very cheap. For example, where fresh water is near the sea, a house costs 200 thousand dollars, and the era of rising prices has passed. "