What is the main direction of population migration in China in the next 30 years?

The main driving force of population movement in peacetime is the regional gap between economy and population. The imbalance of regional economic development leads to the flow of labor to areas with better employment opportunities, and the aging population areas need to attract young foreign labor to maintain the vitality of economic growth. In recent years, population mobility has become an important part of global economic and development issues, and China's population mobility is no exception.

Since the reform and opening up, the rapid social and economic changes in China have promoted the flow of labor, mainly from rural areas to cities and from underdeveloped areas to economically developed areas. The changes in policies and systems have released the restrictions on farmers' going to work in cities and reduced the risk of mobility; Under the background of economic transformation, industrialization and economic globalization, the rapid development of coastal labor-intensive industries has produced huge and lasting labor demand; Agricultural modernization improves agricultural productivity, reduces agricultural labor intensity and reduces the demand for agricultural labor; Coastal areas and big cities took the lead in completing the demographic transition in the 1990s. The long-term low fertility rate leads to the gradual decrease of the newly-added working-age population, and the rapid economic growth requires a large number of young laborers. Many factors promote the flow of population. While making contributions to economic development, population mobility has also changed the population distribution and population structure of China's inflow and outflow areas.

The scale and direction of population mobility

After the reform and opening up, the floating population in China has been growing for more than 30 years, especially since the 1990s, and the growth rate has obviously accelerated, from 6.57 million in 1982 to 220 million in 20 10 (Figure 1), reaching an unprecedented scale, accounting for about17 of the national total population. Among the local permanent residents in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Beijing, the floating population accounts for about 40%. Most of the floating population are young laborers from rural areas to cities. In 20 10, about1500,000 floating population in China came from rural areas, 54% of the floating population in the province came from rural areas, and nearly 82% of the floating population across provinces came from rural areas. Up to now, the floating population has continued to grow. The Statistical Bulletin of National Economic and Social Development 20 12 issued by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the floating population in China was about 236 million in 20 12, an increase of 6.69 million over the end of last year.

Figure 1 scale and growth rate of floating population in China, 1982 ~ 20 10 year.

(Source: Based on previous national censuses and national 1% population sampling survey data)

The main trend of population migration in China is to migrate from the central and western regions to the eastern and southeast coastal regions. In the 1980s and early 1990s, the Pearl River Delta region attracted a large number of labor inflows from all over the country. The inflow population of Guangdong Province still ranks first in the country, and the inflow population of Dongguan, Shenzhen, Zhongshan and other cities has accounted for more than half of the permanent population. However, the direction of labor mobility is highly sensitive to economic changes. With the development of local economy and the change of economic situation, the regional characteristics of population movement have also changed locally. After the 1990s, the Yangtze River Delta (including Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang) gradually became more attractive to the inflow population, and became three metropolitan areas with the Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Since 2 1 century, the inflow population in the Yangtze River Delta region has grown faster than that in the Pearl River Delta region, with Zhejiang having the largest growth rate. 20 10 the results of the sixth national census show that the inflow population is more concentrated in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan areas. However, although Guangdong is still the province with the largest population inflow, its attraction to the inflow population has obviously weakened. 2 1 0 years ago, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Suzhou had the fastest population growth, indicating that these areas were more attractive and the focus of population inflow had shifted from the Pearl River Delta to the Yangtze River Delta. The attraction of Tianjin and Fujian to labor inflow has increased significantly, which is obviously closely related to the development of Binhai New Area and Fujian-Taiwan Economic Zone in recent years.

Economic factors are the main factors to attract labor inflow. Areas with high urban income and high per capita GDP are more likely to become areas with concentrated labor inflows, such as Tianjin, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia and Zhejiang, where the per capita GDP in 20 12 years exceeds 100 USD. In the region, except Inner Mongolia, which is dominated by population mobility, other regions are the main areas of inter-provincial labor inflow. From 2005 to 20 10, the population outside the province accounted for almost 45% of the population of other provinces in China (Guangdong, another major inflow province, accounted for 25%), and the migration rates of Shanghai, Beijing and Zhejiang ranked among the top three in China. Economic factors are also one of the main factors driving the outflow of population. The top three provinces with the highest emigration rate in 2005-20 10 are Anhui, Jiangxi and Guizhou with low per capita GDP, and the other major emigration places are Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi, Sichuan and Chongqing. Generally speaking, the population outflow areas are almost all over the country and relatively scattered, while the population inflow areas are relatively concentrated in the main economic center cities in the east.

Population factor is another important factor to attract and promote labor mobility. Some studies have found that the influence of the population size of the emigration area on population flow (promoting outflow) is second only to the per capita disposable income of the emigration town (attracting inflow). Except for the outflow of population in the eastern rural areas, the major provinces listed above are all populous provinces with relatively dense population and a high proportion of rural population. Moreover, the fertility changes in these areas are relatively late, and the fertility level in rural areas is relatively high, which can continuously transport a large number of young laborers. The eastern coastal areas and major cities are the earliest areas in China to complete the demographic transition and enter the aging population. The population in some areas of the Yangtze River Delta began to grow negatively as early as the 1990s. Undoubtedly, during the period of rapid economic development, there is a huge demand for young migrant workers in these areas, and it is necessary to continuously introduce migrant workers to maintain economic development.

Composition and changes of floating population

The floating population is mainly young laborers, and it is highly concentrated in the age group of 15 ~ 30. Different from the common age pattern of floating population in the world, most of the floating population in China have no children, so the proportion of children under 15 is extremely low, which leads to the problem of left-behind children in rural areas. In the past 30 years, with the continuous expansion of the scale, the age and gender composition of the floating population have also changed. This group is no longer the "working girls" and "wage earners" before the 1990s, and the proportion of married floating population has been rising. More migrants no longer work alone in cities, but live with their spouses and children. Women account for nearly half of the floating population. The long-term sustained economic growth in coastal cities has created abundant employment opportunities, and the public services and related policies for the floating population are improving day by day. More and more migrant workers stopped the pendulum flow and stayed in the city for a long time without returning to the countryside. The median age of the floating population increased from 23 years old in 1982 to 29 years old in 20 10 (that is, half of the floating population was over 29 years old). Among the 20 10 floating population, 24% have left their domicile for more than 6 years, and the corresponding proportions in Shanghai and Beijing are as high as 32% and 30%. From 2000 to 20 10, the growth rate of the floating population aged 35 and above was much higher than that of the younger group. Therefore, the expansion of floating population is not entirely due to young people of working age. Those migrant workers who left home in their early years have become relatively stable urban residents, and a large part of their children have entered the urban labor market. However, these two generations are still labeled as "floating population" or "migrant workers", although many young people grew up in cities and have never been engaged in agriculture.

Another important change in the composition of floating population is the rapid improvement of education level. In 20 10, 44% of the floating population in the province and 40% of the floating population in the province have received high school education or above, and the corresponding inter-provincial floating population proportions are as high as 30% and 27% respectively, and the proportion of floating population with primary school education or below has dropped significantly. On the one hand, the improvement of the education level of the floating population is attributed to the development of national education in recent years, which generally improves the overall education level of the young population. On the other hand, it also shows that some areas have successfully attracted young people with high academic qualifications by providing better employment and development opportunities. The corresponding change is that the proportion of floating population engaged in professional and technical personnel has increased, while the proportion engaged in agriculture has dropped significantly. Changes in the composition of floating population will affect the future trend of population mobility and residence.

The influence of population mobility on population structure and scale

A large number of young rural laborers flow to the southeast coastal cities, which will undoubtedly change the population structure and population size pattern of the inflow and outflow areas. Its impact on social economy and population is obvious in the short term and long-term.

The migration from rural areas to urban areas is undoubtedly the main driving force for urban population growth. The fertility rate of most cities in China has remained at a very low level for a long time, lower than 1.5 or even close to 1. The inertia of population growth accumulated before the 1980 s has disappeared, and the role of natural population growth can be ignored. The scale of urban residents in China has surpassed that of rural residents since 20 1 1, and urban-rural mobility has undoubtedly played an important role. This phenomenon can also be seen in other developing countries, for example, the contribution of rural-urban migration to urban population growth in Thailand is 80%, and that in Indonesia is 68%.

Because the main outflow areas of floating population in China are populous provinces, the impact of floating population on the local population size is far less than that on the inflow areas, especially in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta regions where population inflows are relatively concentrated. While striving to achieve sustained and high-speed economic development, Beijing tried to control the size of the permanent population in the city, and as a result, the goal of population size continued to break through.

However, if we further investigate the influence of the inflow population on the population structure of the inflow areas, it is not difficult to see that the input of young labor is exactly what these cities need for economic development. Take the population of Shanghai in 20 10 as an example (Figure 2). The number of migrants in the age group of 20-39 far exceeds the registered population. The advantage of floating population lies not only in quantity, but also in age. It is precisely because the foreign labor force has greatly supplemented the shrinking number of local registered population in the young part that the vitality of Shanghai's economic development can be effectively maintained. As can also be seen from Figure 2, the number of Shanghai residents under the age of 20 is far from enough to replace those who are about to leave working age. According to Shanghai's current economic development momentum, it is necessary to continuously introduce foreign young labor to supplement it in the future. The situation in Shanghai is typical in many other eastern cities. Due to the long-term and stable extremely low fertility rate, most urban population has entered the aging stage before the whole country, and the working-age population of household registration is also aging. Without the introduction of foreign labor, it is difficult to meet the demand of economic growth for labor, especially for young labor. It seems that the most fundamental way to control urban population growth may be to adjust economic planning and development mode and reduce the demand for young labor.

Figure 2 Size of Shanghai's permanent population by gender and age in 2010 (unit: 10,000 people)

(Source: Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics: 20 10 data of the sixth national census)

Mainly influenced by the floating population, the level of aging in rural areas in China is higher than that in cities, showing the characteristics of urban-rural inversion. In the process of urbanization, young people from rural areas migrate to cities, which makes the aging level of urban population decline and the aging level of rural areas rise. From 65438 to 0982, the rural population aged 65 and above accounted for 5.0% of the total population, slightly higher than the urban population of 4.5%. By 2000, the gap between urban and rural areas continued to widen, with the population aged 65 and over in rural areas accounting for 7.4%, higher than that in urban areas (6.3%). By 20 10, the proportion of elderly people in rural areas has been 2.3 percentage points higher than that in cities. The regional differences of population aging speed also reflect the influence of population mobility. The fastest aging province in 2000-20 10 was Gansu (the population aging growth rate was 64.6%), followed by Heilongjiang, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Qinghai, Hubei, Shaanxi, Jilin, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. The slowest growth of the aging degree is in Beijing and Tianjin, while the aging degree in Shanghai decreased by 12.3% during 10, which is obviously related to the influx of young laborers in these areas.

According to the influence of floating population on population aging in different regions, the whole country can be divided into three categories: a, the aging degree of two provinces (cities and autonomous regions) has been alleviated by floating population, and the most significant areas are major population inflow areas such as Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Zhejiang and Guangdong; B there are * * 16 provinces (cities, autonomous regions) affected by population movement, among which Anhui, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Chongqing and Hunan provinces are particularly affected by labor outflow; C, the floating population has little effect on the aging of the population in this province, including Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Yunnan and other areas where the population is mainly floating. It is worth noting that the areas where population aging has been alleviated are all economically developed areas, while the economically underdeveloped areas where population aging is more serious due to the outflow of young people have relatively poor old-age security. The consequences of rural population aging in these areas and its impact on social economy should be highly valued.

The future development trend of population mobility

Looking back on the urbanization process of developed and emerging countries and the migration and mobility of population in recent 20 years, it is predicted that the population mobility in China will continue for a long time and will not decrease in a short time. The population size of megacities will continue to grow, and the population of coastal economic centers will be more dense, while the population aging in central, western and northeastern regions will be accelerated by the continuous outflow of young people. However, with the change of the composition of the floating population, the characteristics of the flow may be different from the past.

In the process of industrialization and urbanization, the proportion of urban population increases in an "S" shape, which can be divided into starting period, accelerating period, slowing period and stable period according to the level and process of urbanization. In developed countries that have basically completed urbanization, the final urbanization level exceeds 70% or even 90%. The countries in the world with higher population density, more than 60% urbanization and more than 50 million people are Germany, the Philippines, South Korea, Japan, Italy and Britain. The urbanization process in developed countries such as the United States and Europe has gone through hundreds of years, and the rapid urbanization stage in the United States has lasted for 60 years. However, the urbanization process in other countries is quite rapid, such as Japan and South Korea, which completed the rapid development stage of urbanization in only 20 years. China's urbanization rate has just exceeded 50%, and there is still a lot of room for development. It is in the stage of rapid development and will continue for a long time. The migration of labor from rural areas to cities is an important driving force for population urbanization. In the future, more rural people will move to cities to settle down or become urban residents on the spot.

Although the economic development momentum of the central and western regions has been good in recent years under the impetus of national planning and policies, the regional gradient pattern formed over the years cannot be changed, and the dominant position of the eastern coastal areas has not changed, and the attraction of young labor force is still far beyond that of the central and western regions. The "new generation" of migrant workers born after 1980s are also different from the previous generation. They are more interested in seeing the world, learning skills or leaving the countryside to work in cities, and are more concerned about developing their own future and improving their skills, rather than mainly making money to support their families. Although the wages of migrant workers have been continuously raised in many areas in recent years, wage income is not the only factor that these young migrant workers consider. In addition to more employment opportunities and development space, urban public policies, medical and health services, quality of life and social and cultural environment are all important conditions to attract young people; Staying in the city for children's education has also become the reason why a considerable number of young migrant parents choose to stay in the city. The eastern coastal areas undoubtedly have comparative advantages in these aspects. The study of cross-border immigration in Europe found that high-quality immigrants often consider more when choosing the place to move in, and areas with higher standards and poor social environment are not competitive in attracting high-quality immigrants. Under the aging trend of the local population, attracting young and high-quality immigrants with various policies and conditions has become a contest among European countries. The eastern coastal areas of China are more attractive to high-quality immigrants.

Population changes will also affect the future trend of population mobility. In areas where the proportion of only children is relatively high and concentrated, young people may first choose cities close to home for employment, or move back to cities close to home when their parents need it, thus reducing inter-provincial mobility and increasing intra-provincial mobility. In some areas, such as Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Jilin and Jiangsu, in 2005, the only child accounted for more than 40% of the population under 30. The corresponding proportions in Sichuan, Zhejiang, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Hubei are between 30% and 40%. In fact, from 2005 to 20 10, Henan has surpassed Sichuan to become the largest province of population outflow, and the population change in Sichuan should be one of the influencing factors.

Judging from the demand of floating population, although the eastern coastal areas have a large population, they still need a large number of young laborers. The main reason is that the population structure in these areas is aging, and the aging speed will be faster as the peers in China and China enter the old age. For a population, there are only two ways to adjust the age structure: addition and subtraction, that is, increasing the number of young people through birth and immigration, and reducing the number of old people through death and immigration. Judging from the current development trend, the fertility rate in these areas has been low for a long time, but it has not been significantly improved. With the development of economy and society and the improvement of social security level, the health status of the elderly is improving day by day, the life expectancy is prolonged and the mortality rate is further reduced. Therefore, it is impossible to effectively supplement young people locally, and it is basically impossible for the elderly to move out. In this case, the introduction of young labor force has increased the population, but it is the only way to adjust the age structure of the population and alleviate the aging of the population.

To maintain rapid economic growth, it is necessary to find a balance between the demand for young labor and the control of population size, which is also a difficult problem faced by developed countries in Europe and some emerging countries in Asia. For example, in the population white papers released by Singapore in June of 20 13 and 13, in view of the prospect that the population will begin to shrink in 2025, Singapore put forward the coping strategies of encouraging marriage and giving birth and welcoming immigrants, and plans to introduce1.5 ~ 25,000 young immigrants every year. For Singapore, a city country, this will obviously increase the number of residents and population density. Although the government clearly stated in the white paper that it should pay attention to the balance between structure and quantity and carefully control the number of immigrants, it was opposed by some Singaporean citizens. It seems that the truth that "adjusting the population structure requires addition, and we can't have more children but only move in more young people" requires not only the decision makers but also the society.

discuss

Under the background of national industrialization, urbanization and economic globalization, looking at the situation of population mobility in the last 20 years, although the characteristics and composition of population mobility have changed, the regional pattern and overall characteristics of population mobility have not fundamentally changed, and it is expected that there will be no obvious changes in the future. The fundamental reason is that population mobility is mainly determined by economic and demographic factors, but also influenced by topography and climate. These factors have their own laws or relative stability, such as the economic center position of coastal cities and the acceleration of urban population aging, which are predictable and basically impossible to change. Even with the efforts of different policies of local governments, whether it is to control, promote or guide, the general pattern of population mobility will not suddenly change. International experience shows that the government's "wishful" quantitative control and the setting of entry threshold can not stop the inflow of labor; When the labor market is hit by economic downturn or financial crisis, these migrant workers will leave quickly (such as Spain after 2008). The experience of "small urbanization" in some parts of China also shows that towns without employment opportunities cannot attract young people. Therefore, as a government, we should give up the regulation policies that violate the laws of market economy and ignore the laws of population, and actively take countermeasures that conform to the general trend.

Excessive concentration of population in big cities may bring about environmental pollution, traffic congestion and other problems. In order to alleviate these contradictions, there is still room for further development in developed areas in guiding the rational distribution of population and ensuring the coordinated development of regional population, environment and economy. The concentration of floating population distribution is caused by industrial layout and resource concentration. In order to make the layout of floating population more reasonable and balanced, it is necessary to plan the industrial layout and infrastructure construction reasonably according to the ecological environment conditions, so as to make the development of various regions enter a virtuous circle. At present, the floating population absorbed by the three metropolitan areas (Yangtze River Delta Metropolitan Area, Pearl River Delta Metropolitan Area and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Area) accounts for more than 40% of the floating population in China. If we can continue to strengthen the economic radiation ability of metropolis, expand the radiation scope and promote the development of a number of small and medium-sized cities around, we can not only alleviate the excessive concentration of floating population, but also promote the benign interaction among population, environment and economy.

What needs to be emphasized again is that under this relatively stable population flow pattern, those "floating population" who have lived in the inflow areas for many years are still unable to live and work in peace and contentment, and various problems related to population flow have not been solved for a long time, which requires local governments to attach great importance to it. 20 10 the results of the third national survey on women's social status show that the social security (social medical insurance and old-age insurance) enjoyed by urban floating population is far lower than that enjoyed by urban residents and rural residents of the same age, and their political and social participation is far lower than that of urban and rural residents. What's more, more than 20 million children of floating population can't get equal rights to education and further study in the inflow areas. If these problems are not solved, floating population families will not be able to establish themselves in cities and become real urban residents. If nearly half of the residents in the city are in this state, it is not conducive to the foreign population itself, nor to the urban residents, nor to the construction and development of the city. The problem of "citizenization" of floating population directly affects the urbanization process and the construction of a well-off society in China, which requires the government to come up with a sincere and effective solution and should be highly valued by the public.