Why is there no movement in the Syrian civil war now?

Why is there no movement in the Syrian civil war now?

The situation in Syria is very interesting. As long as there are no big movements within it, it will be very detrimental to the Syrian government. This is different from other countries. In general, the more internal stability the better, but what the Syrian government currently hopes most is that this stable and balanced situation can be broken, and the government forces can have the opportunity to take military action immediately and open up a new battlefield. Why is this?

The picture shows the current situation in Syria. It can be seen that the area controlled by the Kurds is very large.

From the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2020, with the direct participation of the Turkish army in the war, the situation in Syria has undergone profound changes. Turkey’s direct intervention has caused most areas of Syria’s Idlib Province and its provincial capital Idlib to The city could not be recovered quickly, and the Syrian government could only choose to stop the offensive after Russia and Turkey reached a conflict de-escalation agreement. Subsequently, the Syrian government forces withdrew their troops from the Idlib battlefield in the west and redeployed them to the west bank of the Euphrates River in northeastern Syria to implement military deterrence against the Kurdish armed forces, the second largest armed force in Syria. We must force them to accept the national unified plan as soon as possible.

The picture shows Russian troops patrolling in Syria.

From then to now, negotiations between the Syrian government and the Kurdish armed forces have been ongoing and have not yet been completed. The current Syria is actually divided into three parts. The largest is the area controlled by the Syrian government, followed by the eastern part of Syria controlled by Kurdish armed forces, and finally parts of Idlib province controlled by opposition forces supported by Turkey. At present, the Syrian government forces are unable to take military operations in these areas. Although they do have a great advantage in strength, they can only accept the current situation.

The picture shows a Syrian government tank.

Then why does the Syrian government not choose military means? First of all, it is because of the interference of other major powers. For example, Idlib Province is home to a number of opposition armed forces supported by Turkey, including the Syrian National Army, Nusra Front, Free Syrian Army and other armed forces. Although these armed forces themselves are not united, they are all subject to Turkish leadership. As early as 2019, Turkey launched direct military operations against Syria and established a 150-kilometer-long and 35-kilometer-deep security buffer zone in northeastern Syria to isolate the connection between the Kurdish armed forces and the Turkish mainland.

The picture shows Turkish troops patrolling in Syria.

At that time, some units of the Syrian government army entered northeastern Syria and formed border garrison forces with the Kurdish armed forces to resist the Turkish attack. In the process, they created conflicts with the Turkish army. Direct confrontation. After Turkey basically established a safe buffer zone, the Syrian government forces decided to take advantage of the opportunity of Turkish forces in the east to launch a large-scale attack on Idlib in western Syria. At that time, the Free Syrian Army and other armed forces were completely unable to resist the offensive of the Syrian government forces. Defeated steadily.

The picture shows Syrian government forces.

Syria deployed elite troops in Idlib at that time, including the 4th Armored Division led by Maher Assad, the brother of Syrian President Bashar Assad, and the Syrian government. The 1st Armored Division of the Army's Strategic Reserve and Syria's most elite 25th Special Forces Division, later known as the Tiger Force, etc. These troops made rapid progress in Idlib and soon captured a building near Idlib city. The small city has opened the door to Idlib. The forward troops of the Syrian government are less than 20 kilometers away from the urban area of ??Idlib, and can be defeated with a single charge.

The picture shows the Syrian Kurdish armed forces.

At this time, Turkey once again directly participated in the war, sending a ground force of 100,000 troops directly into Idlib to fight. Under the cover of air strikes, it severely damaged several main forces in Syria. In the end, Russia We had to get involved and stop Turkey's actions. In the end, Russia and Turkey finalized the "Sochi Agreement" after two rounds of negotiations in Sochi, Russia, which stipulated that Russia and Turkey would use the M4 highway as the boundary to divide Idlib into two regions, the north and the south. * Carry out patrols together to prevent Syrian government forces and proxy forces supported by Turkey from continuing to fight and ensure the de-escalation of the conflict.

The picture shows Syrian government forces and Kurdish armed forces conducting joint patrols.

As for the Kurdish armed forces, the armed forces have grown rapidly with the support of the United States. They not only control the eastern part of Syria, but also control oil-producing areas such as Palmyra. After having oil revenue, The armed forces have achieved unprecedented development. By mid-2020, the United States announced that basic administrative institutions had been established in areas controlled by Kurdish armed forces, which means that the Kurds have begun to exercise administrative power over the area, and that the Syrian territory has been split into two large parts, the east and west.

The Syrian government forces have not used force against the Kurdish armed forces. On the one hand, this is because the Kurdish armed forces are supported by the United States, and on the other hand, because the Syrian government forces and the Kurdish armed forces had conflicts during the Syrian Civil War. Through extensive cooperation, they jointly attacked the ISIS extremist armed forces, the Free Syrian Army, the Nusra Front, the Turkish army and other forces. Without the support of 100,000 Kurdish armed forces, the Syrian government forces would not be able to quickly defeat the ISIS armed forces.

The picture shows the Syrian 4th Armored Division.

It can be said that it was the Kurdish armed forces’ capture of Raqqa, the ISIS stronghold in Syria, during the critical stage of ISIS expansion that allowed the Syrian government forces to focus on attacking other armed forces, but it also caused The Kurdish armed forces have completely taken over the eastern part of Syria controlled by ISIS in the past, and are close to realizing the Kurdish century-old dream of statehood. Therefore, on the one hand, the Syrian government forces were hindered by the interference of the United States, and on the other hand, they did not want to break up with the Kurdish armed forces, so they could only continue to negotiate with the Kurds, but there was not much progress.

The picture shows Hassan, the commander of the Syrian Tiger Forces.

Therefore, the Syrian government has chosen to recuperate and recover. When domestic reunification cannot be achieved in the short term, it will first find a way to heal the wounds of the war in a few years, then restore economic development and revitalize the morale of the army before finding a way. Overcome the Turkish threat and strive for domestic reunification. But this is not something that happens overnight. Therefore, the domestic situation in Syria has been relatively calm recently, but it also hides the possibility of future conflicts. We will wait and see.