The fuel cell is on the eve of the explosion, and the scale of the industrial chain will exceed 100 billion.

Recently, the new energy automobile industry development plan (202 1-2035) and energy saving and new energy steam

Two heavy documents, Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0, were released, which provided goals and guidance for the medium and long-term development of China's new energy automobile industry and outlined the grand blueprint for the future development of China's new energy automobile industry.

According to the development plan, after fifteen years of continuous efforts, China strives to achieve a major breakthrough in key core technologies of new energy vehicles, coordinated and efficient integration and development, and good industrial ecology. Pure electric passenger cars have become the mainstream, fuel cell commercial vehicles have achieved large-scale applications, and highly self-driving intelligent networked vehicles have become popular. China has entered the ranks of the world's automobile powers.

"Technology Roadmap 2.0" puts forward the goal of saving energy by 50% and new energy vehicles by 50% by 2035. On the route of energy saving and emission reduction, it is proposed that by 2035, the fuel consumption of vans will be reduced by about 20%, and large-scale application of hydrogen energy will be realized. At the same time, the number of fuel cell vehicles will reach about 6.5438+0 million.

Second, the policy is continuously released, and the fuel cell industry is on the eve of the outbreak.

Hydrogen is green and clean, and its calorific value is as high as three times that of gasoline. It is an ideal energy carrier and clean energy. In recent years, major developed countries in the world have actively promoted the development of hydrogen energy and fuel cell industries. Japan, the United States, South Korea, Europe and other countries have formulated medium and long-term development plans for the fuel cell industry and invested huge subsidies. Due to the lack of its own resources, Japan even promoted the development of hydrogen energy and fuel cell technology to the national strategic level.

In 2002, China established the "three verticals and three horizontals" R&D layout of electric vehicles, with hybrid electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles as "three verticals" and multi-energy powertrain control system, drive motors and power batteries as "three horizontals". From the perspective of 20 12 development plan of energy-saving and new energy vehicle industry, we will continue to strengthen strategic support, industrial guidance and financial support for fuel cell vehicles.

Since Shanghai released the first development plan for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, local governments have intensively released plans for hydrogen energy and fuel cell industries. According to the latest development plan of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles released by Beijing, before 2023, we will strive to popularize 3,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and build 37 hydrogen refueling stations, with the cumulative output value of the whole industrial chain of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles exceeding 8.5 billion yuan; By 2025, we will strive to promote more than 1 000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and build 37 new hydrogen refueling stations (74 in total). The cumulative output value of the whole industrial chain of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will exceed 24 billion yuan.

It is worth noting that at present, China's electric vehicle industry has formed the most complete industrial chain in the world, and the electric vehicle market ranks first in the world. However, the fuel cell industry in China is still in the early stage of development. At present, the number of fuel cell vehicles in China is less than 65,438+0,000, and the layout of hydrogen refueling stations is far from meeting the future demand. According to the target time of industrial planning, this means that the fuel cell industry will usher in a real outbreak in the next few years!

Third, the era of fuel cell parity is accelerating, and the scale of the industrial chain will exceed 100 billion.

At present, the energy use cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles. From the perspective of cost composition, the fuel cell system accounts for more than 60% of the vehicle cost, and the hydrogen cost is the main cost in the operation stage. Therefore, the system unit price,

The price of hydrogen is the main factor affecting the whole cycle cost of fuel cell vehicles.

Take hydrogen as an example. At present, the price of hydrogen fuel in China is about 70 yuan /kg, and the consumption per 100 kilometers is 0.8kg. The energy use cost of hydrogen fuel cells is 56 yuan/100km. According to the gasoline price of 6.7 yuan /L and 8L/ 100 km, the energy cost of fuel vehicles is 53.6 yuan/100km. From this point of view, the energy use cost of hydrogen fuel cells in China is higher than that of fuel vehicles.

However, with the support of policies, the production and sales scale of domestic fuel cell vehicles has increased rapidly, and the localization process has continued to advance. The price of fuel cell system and vehicle-mounted hydrogen storage system will drop rapidly, and the purchase cost of the whole vehicle is expected to continue to drop. At the same time, the expansion of downstream automobile operation scale will stimulate the demand for hydrogen, and the low-cost and high-quality hydrogen source of by-product hydrogen will form a large-scale supply, and the terminal price of hydrogen is expected to continue to decline, thus pushing down the use cost of fuel cell vehicles.

At present, China has the largest domestic demand market in the world. Under the technological progress and scale effect, the parity era of domestic fuel cell vehicles will come earlier than that of foreign countries, thus boosting the further development of China's fuel cell industry. According to the overall deployment of the country and the local industrial planning, it is estimated that the output value of the whole fuel cell industry chain is expected to exceed 1000 billion yuan in 2025, in which the output value of hydrogen storage links of systems, stacks, MEAs, vehicles and vehicles will approach or exceed 1000 billion yuan!

Four. capital proposals

Fuel cell is a brand-new energy supply device, and the system, stack and membrane electrode assembly are unique to fuel cell. The above links have high technical barriers and are difficult to industrialize. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises of high-quality track, such as systems, reactors, MEA and hydrogen supply equipment, such as Meijin Energy, which is the leader of the whole industrial chain layout of systems and reactors, and Xiong Tao Co., Ltd., which is the leading enterprise of membrane electrodes.

Yihuatong: The company is the top two system suppliers in China, with a high installed market share. From 2065438 to 2009, Yihuatong ranked second in the installed capacity of domestic systems, second only to reshaping technology. The company takes the system as the core, arranges the stack and membrane electrode upstream, and takes into account the hydrogen energy facilities.

In the upstream field, the company acquired Li Shen Science and Technology, a domestic reactor enterprise, and laid out reactors. 2065438+June 2009, the company and Dongyue Future Hydrogen Energy Materials, a subsidiary of Dongyue Group, established Yihai Technology. The company holds 18%, which is extended to membrane electrodes. So far, the company has completed the layout of system-stack-membrane electrode from bottom to top.

In the downstream field, the company participated in the establishment of Zhangjiakou Haipo to carry out hydrogen production and hydrogenation station construction and transportation business, and the company holds 26% of the shares; Established Huabin Hydrogen Energy Company with Hua Bin Co., Ltd. to purify by-product hydrogen. At present, the company holds 2.5% of the shares. In addition, in September this year, the company cooperated with Beiqi Foton to release a 32t heavy truck equipped with the 109kW fuel cell system independently developed by the company, which is expected to benefit from the rapid development of the heavy truck market in the future.

Meijin Energy: The company is a listed company that laid out hydrogen fuel cells earlier in China. 20 17 holds shares in Foshan Feichi. 20 19 successively invested in membrane electrode enterprise Hongji Chuangneng and domestic fuel cell stack leader Guo Hong Hydrogen Energy, realizing the coverage of midstream components and downstream vehicles.

Guo Hong Hydrogen Energy is a leading supplier of fuel cell stacks in China, with a domestic market share of over 70% from 20 18 to 20 19. 2) Hongji Chuangneng is a leading membrane electrode enterprise in China. From 2065438 to 2009, the company independently rolled off the MEA production line. The designed annual production capacity of CCM and MEA of the existing production line is 300,000 square meters.

In the downstream vehicle link, the company holds Foshan Feichi. Benefiting from the rapid development of hydrogen energy industry in the Pearl River Delta, 20 18 and 20 19 Feichi delivered FCV 180 and 376 vehicles respectively. At the beginning of 2020, Feichi released a heavy truck for hydrogen fuel cells. The total vehicle weight is 49t and the cruising range is 400km. It is expected to be delivered in small batches during the year, and it is expected to benefit from the heavy fuel cell trucks in the future.

# Yihuatong # # Meijin Energy # # Xiong Tao Shares #

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