How about Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Development Co., Ltd.?

It’s pretty good, it’s already on the market.

The stock of this company is called Zaisheng Technology, with the stock code (603601). Analysis of the company’s investment value:

From the perspective of winning rate, the company’s long-term growth rate within 5 years The certainty is above 80%, which mainly depends on the following reasons:

1). Very good growth: When it was first listed in 2015, the scale was very small, with revenue of only 210 million and net profit of 30 million. , in just 5 years, it has already achieved revenue of 1.2 billion and profit scale of 169 million, 5 times in 5 years, achieving positive growth in operating income every year.

2) The industry has a vast space, application scenarios are constantly expanding, and the track is excellent.

3), the competitive landscape is good, national enterprises are replacing them, and their market share continues to expand.

4), the only industrial company in the microglass fiber industry that has integrated the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, with obvious cost and synergy advantages.

5) The company's governance is excellent: the major shareholders have a good reputation in the capital market, maintain a high degree of consistency with small and medium-sized shareholders, the management has outstanding capabilities, and has implemented stock option incentives for the second time.

6), technological innovation advantages. The company has two major research institutes, Chongqing Fiber Research and Design Institute and Chongqing Paper Industry Research and Design Institute, and has established a "National Enterprise Technology Center". It has a professional R&D and design team, rich research and development experience, a well-established independent R&D system, and filter paper. The performance has completely caught up with the level of the American HV company, the global industry leader.

7) The valuation is within a reasonable range: from a vertical comparison, the company's stock price has more than doubled this year and is already at a high position; from a horizontal comparison, the current TTM valuation is 35 times, The company's valuation is at a reasonable level. The current valuation given by the market is that of manufacturing companies, which is low for growth stocks in a good track.

From the odds, Company A will have a higher rate of return in the next few years:

The company's current market value is 10 billion yuan.

1) It is estimated that the company's net profit after 5 years will be 1.2 billion yuan, and given a PE of 20-40 times, the cumulative return after 3 years will be 140%-320%.

2) This is a valuation based on a medium PE, and there is a certain degree of uncertainty.

Logical reasoning, relative valuation method (valuation based on market space in 5 years):

1. Filter paper industry, space is 10 billion. The market share in 2018 was 22%. It is expected that the trend of replacing foreign investment will continue. Based on the market share of 25%, the net interest rate is calculated at 20% in 2016 and 2017. Profit = 100*0.25 *0.2=500 million

2. The vacuum insulation panel industry has a space of 10 billion (the ultimate market size is reported to be 176 billion, based on the market estimate in 3-5 years). The market share of Saite New Materials is about 35%, Recycling Technology is calculated as 20%, and the net profit margin of competitor Saite New Materials is 20%. Profit = 100*0.20 *0.2=400 million

3. Purification equipment (including fresh air system. Note: Zaisheng classifies purification equipment into the clean air category), 60 billion. The market share is 5% and the net profit margin is 10%. Profit = 600*0.05 *0.10=300 million

The total of the above is 1.2 billion. This is the chassis of Zaisheng Technology business. Others include microglass fiber cotton, AGM separators, low-resistance melt-blown filter materials, The operating income of masks and high-efficiency PTFE filter membranes is temporarily small or unstable, and will not be included in the valuation calculation for the time being. Considering that in 5 years, the clean air industry has not yet reached a mature stage and is still in the development stage, and the company is engaged in aerospace sound insulation materials, construction The initial investment in energy-saving insulation materials will detonate a larger market, and PE is calculated as 35 times.

Market value = 12*35=42 billion. A conservative PE of 20 times is 24 billion. It is expected that the market value will exceed 30 billion within 5 years.

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