27 leading enterprises in new energy-lithium battery industry (2) (5000 words long, recommended collection)

The first part introduces the general situation of the upstream and downstream of the new energy electric vehicle industry and the battery segmentation industry (see the brief analysis of the lithium battery industry of new energy vehicles for details). This paper will dig deep into the leading companies in various sub-sectors of the battery industry from three dimensions: sales volume in 20021quarter and classification and comparison of battery principles.

1, domestic electric vehicles:

According to the data of China Automobile Association, the output of new energy vehicles was 750,000 from June 5438 to April, a year-on-year increase of 266%. 1-The sales volume in April was 732,000 vehicles, up by 249.2% year-on-year.

The sales volume of electric car Q 1 greatly exceeded the market expectation, so the sales volume forecast of 202 1 was revised to 2.4-2.6 million units. If 202 1 reaches this sales volume, the planned sales volume of 4-5 million vehicles by 2025 mentioned in the last article will definitely come ahead of schedule. ,

2. European electric vehicles:

2 1,1-In April, the sales volume of * * * in Europe was 529,200, up by 135% year-on-year, maintaining the expectation of 2 million vehicles for the whole year.

3. American electric vehicles:

2 1,1-In April, the sales volume of electric vehicles in the United States was 16.6 1 10,000, up 77% year-on-year, and the annual sales volume is expected to exceed 550,000.

No matter at home or abroad, 202 1 1 showed a sharp growth trend in this quarter for the following three reasons:

1, carbon emission assessment.

2. In 2020 1 quarter, the epidemic broke out and the automobile opportunities stopped.

3. National policy support.

In the case of such a sharp increase in demand for electric vehicles, soochow securities predicted the sales of trams:

It is estimated that in 2 1 year, the global sales of electric vehicles will be 53 1 10,000 units, up 75% year-on-year, of which overseas sales will be 28 1 10,000 units; It will continue to grow at a high speed in 22 years. It is estimated that the annual sales of electric vehicles will be 73 1 1,000, a year-on-year increase of 38%.

It is estimated that in 2025, the global sales of electric vehicles will be about 6.5438+0677 million, with a compound growth rate of 40% compared with 20 years, including about 6.99/9.78 million at home and abroad. The global demand for power batteries is about 1005gwh, including 379/626gwh at home and abroad.

In the last article, we mentioned that the battery is now controlled by ternary and lithium ion, and the three will account for 99.5% in 2020.

Under the spoiler of Weilai, a more suitable battery, solid-state battery, appeared, which is expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2022. Why did solid-state batteries appear again? Is ternary and lithium iron not good? Let's talk about the working principle of the battery.

1, battery working principle

The battery consists of positive and negative electrodes, electrolyte and diaphragm.

Let's compare these four modules. The positive electrode is the factory, the negative electrode is the apartment, the diaphragm is the ticket inspector, and the electrolyte is the bus. We still lack an important "employee"-lithium ion.

The working mode of the battery is "employee"-lithium ion goes back and forth between the factory and the apartment, and takes the electrolyte car "bus", and every time it gets on and off, it needs to be checked by the diaphragm "ticket inspector".

Charging process: employees are tired after a day's work and need to go back to the apartment to sleep and replenish energy. Lithium ions are conducted through the electrolyte and pass through the separator to reach the negative electrode. The diaphragm effectively prevents electrons from passing through and only allows lithium ions to pass through.

Discharge process: employees have a good rest in the apartment, replenish their energy and come to work in the factory by means of transportation. Lithium ions are conducted through the electrolyte, pass through the separator and reach the positive electrode of the battery.

Then why is the battery less durable after a period of use?

This is because after the battery works for a period of time, employees will age and retire, that is, lithium ions will decrease; The factory's benefit is not good, and the apartment can't be damaged, that is, the positive and negative active substances are reduced; Long-term wear and disrepair of buses leads to traffic paralysis, that is, the ohmic impedance of batteries increases and the conductivity decreases.

2. Comparison between solid and liquid

The difference between a solid battery and a liquid battery is that the electrolyte of the liquid battery is liquid and there is a diaphragm to prevent electrons from passing through. The electrolyte of solid-state battery is solid, which saves the diaphragm.

Advantages of solid-state batteries:

A: Good security. Liquid batteries are flammable and explosive, while solid batteries can inhibit lithium dendrites without electrolyte leakage and improve safety.

B: high energy density. The energy density of liquid lithium batteries, whether iron lithium or high nickel, is less than 300wh/kg, generally around 200wh/kg, while that of solid batteries can reach 300-400wh/kg. Mainly because the solid-state battery does not use graphite as the negative electrode, but directly uses metal lithium as the negative electrode, which improves the density of the whole battery.

C: long cycle life.

Disadvantages of solid-state batteries:

A: The interface impedance is too large. Electrolyte is solid, and the transmission power of ions in solid is low, which leads to excessive interfacial impedance.

B: Immature technology leads to high cost.

Trend pattern of solid-state batteries: At present, some enterprises have entered the trial stage of solid-state batteries, and solid-state batteries are the future trend. Liquid batteries can't solve the problem of high mileage, but solid batteries can.

At present, liquid batteries are still the mainstay, with emphasis on developing solid-state batteries.

1, cathode material

Cathode materials: ternary (NCM) and lithium iron (LFP). The ternary elements are nickel 5, nickel 6 and nickel 8.

Among the cathode materials, ternary and lithium iron dominate the world, and in ternary, the permeability of nickel 8 continues to increase, which is still the home of nickel 5 and nickel 6. With the passage of time, nickel 8 will definitely become the mainstream of the market.

Cathode material is a technology and capital-intensive industry, and the product price has a strong correlation with the upstream metal price. Cathode material is the core link of battery material, and its cost accounts for nearly 40% of lithium battery.

Cathode materials are under the pressure of technology iteration and cost reduction at the same time, and high nickel cobalt-free solid-state batteries are the focus of the next generation technology. At present, the investment of ternary high nickel production line is 600 million yuan/10,000 tons, and the production capacity of domestic first-line cathode materials enterprises is 40,000 tons. Most of them need a lot of money to promote the construction of 654.38+ 1 100 million tons base.

The global shipments of cathode materials increased from less than 654.38 million tons in 2065.438+03 to 600,000 tons in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 30%. It is estimated that the global scale of cathode materials will exceed 200 billion yuan in 2025, and the domestic output of cathode materials will be 565.438 million tons in 2020, up by 27% year-on-year, of which NCM ternary materials account for 46% and lithium ferrous phosphate accounts for 25%.

Among the four key raw materials for lithium batteries, the cathode material is the most dispersive. At present, CR3 is only 20%-30%, and CR5 is only 30%-40%. The main reason is that downstream battery factories generally produce part of their own cathode capacity for the sake of supply chain safety and product quality, while upstream mining enterprises will adopt the strategy of extending downstream by virtue of their own resource advantages, which occupies the market space of independent cathode materials enterprises to some extent.

At present, the gross profit margin of domestic cathode materials enterprises is mostly below 20%, and the gross profit margin of downstream materials enterprises mainly facing the domestic market continues to be under pressure, while the gross profit margin of offshore enterprises represented by Dang Sheng Science and Technology remains stable as a whole.

Summary: 1, the concentration of cathode materials industry is not high, mainly upstream and downstream extrusion and technical iteration.

2. High nickel and cobalt-free is the current trend, and solid-state batteries will be the future trend.

3. The top five companies in the cathode material industry: German Nano, Bai Rong Science and Technology, Barrett, Guo Xuan Hi-Tech, Ba Maw and Tianjin.

The top five companies of ternary materials: Bai Rong Science and Technology, Tianjin Ba Maw, Changyuan Lithium Branch, Dang Sheng Science and Technology and Shanshan Energy.

4. The raw materials upstream of the anode mainly involve nickel, lithium and cobalt. Representative companies: Shengtun Mining, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium and Huayou Cobalt.

2. Negative electrode material

The anode material is a technology and capital-intensive industry, and the product quality has a great influence on the energy density, cycle life and fast charging performance of the battery, and its cost accounts for 6-8% of the lithium battery.

At present, the investment in anode production line is 200-300 million yuan/10,000 tons, and the production capacity of domestic first-line anode materials enterprises is 70-80,000 tons. The expansion of production capacity and integration construction have great demand for funds. The production process of negative electrode is relatively mature, and this link is rarely laid out in battery factories.

The domestic output of anode materials increased from 50,000 tons in 2065,438+04 to 365,000 tons in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of about 40%, in which the proportion of artificial graphite increased year by year, and the domestic market share reached 84% in 2020. It is estimated that the global anode material industry will reach 40 billion in 2025.

The concentration of anode materials is high, and the domestic cathode material CR5 accounts for 78% in 2020. Betray, Shanshan and Jiangxi Chenzi are the three traditional negative electrodes in China. Dongguan Jinkai's shipments have grown rapidly in recent years, mainly due to the increase in the installed capacity of power batteries of Contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd., and it has begun to rank among the first-line negative electrode manufacturers.

Negative listed companies have concentrated industries and good profitability, and their gross profit margin is between 25% and 40%. Anode graphite is mainly produced by outsourcing, accounting for 40% of the cost. At present, anode manufacturers have begun to build their own graphitization capacity. The integration of anode production in the future is the industry trend, and the overall profitability of the industry will be further improved.

Carbon-silicon is the next generation anode material that is generally optimistic in the industry, and lithium metal is the ultimate solution of anode material, that is, solid-state battery.

Summary: 1, anode industry concentration and anode industry integration are the future trends.

2. Graphite-carbon silicon-metal lithium is the development trend of negative electrode.

3. The top four anode materials companies: Betray, Jiangxi Chenzi, Shanshan, Dongguan Jinkai.

3. Diaphragm material

Diaphragm is a technology and capital-intensive industry, and its cost accounts for about 8- 10% of lithium batteries. In the diaphragm cost, raw materials and manufacturing costs account for a relatively large proportion, so the scale effect of enterprises is strong.

At present, the investment in diaphragm production line is 400-500 million yuan/100 million square meters, and the production capacity of domestic first-line diaphragm enterprises is 3-3.5 billion square meters. The separator has a high technical barrier, which is the latest link to realize localization among the four major battery materials. Except for a few battery companies such as BYD and SKI, other battery factories are mainly outsourcing diaphragms.

The domestic diaphragm production has increased from 500 million pieces in 20 14 to 3.7 billion pieces in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of about 40%, among which the wet diaphragm accounts for a relatively high proportion, and the domestic market share will reach 70% in 2020. It is estimated that the scale of the global lithium battery separator industry will exceed 30 billion yuan in 2025.

The scale effect of diaphragm industry is strong, the cost advantage of leading enterprises is obvious, and the industry concentration continues to increase. In the past 20 years, domestic wet diaphragm CR5 accounted for 93%, among which En Jie acquired Shanghai Lijie.

The gross profit margin of diaphragm enterprises is generally high, around 40%, but it has gradually declined in recent years. Diaphragm is the link with the strongest expectation of price reduction among the four major materials, and enterprises need to continuously reduce manufacturing costs in order to maintain high profits.

Among the four major materials of lithium battery, the investment per unit capacity of separator is high, so it is necessary to purchase debugging equipment on the basis of mastering the process. After installation, it still takes a long time to climb the slope to ensure high yield. Technology and capital-intensive characteristics limit the entry of new entrants.

The certification period of the first-line battery factory is generally 2-3 years, and then it can be supplied in batches. The long period from capacity planning to revenue realization ensures the first-Mover advantage and scale advantage of the leader.

Summary: 1, it is very difficult for new entrants to the diaphragm material industry, and the industry will further move closer to the leader.

2. Wet coating is the development trend of the industry.

3. Leading enterprise of anode materials: En Jie Xingyuan Materials.

4. Electrolyte materials

Electrolyte is a channel for lithium ion to transfer between anode and cathode, and its cost accounts for about 6-8% of lithium battery. Raw materials such as lithium salt, solvent and additives account for about 90% of the cost of electrolyte ring. In order to reduce costs, the layout of raw material production capacity has become the development trend of the industry.

At present, the investment in electrolyte production line is less than 65.438+0 billion yuan/10,000 tons, and the production capacity of domestic first-line electrolyte enterprises is 55.438+0,000 tons. Raw materials are the key factors affecting the price and capacity of electrolyte, and enterprises with raw material capacity have greater profit elasticity.

The domestic electrolyte output increased from 40,000 tons in 2065,438+04 to 250,000 tons in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of over 35%, in which the proportion of power electrolyte increased year by year, and the domestic market share reached 62% in 2020. It is estimated that the global electrolyte industry will reach nearly 45 billion yuan in 2025.

In 2020, the domestic electrolyte market will account for 74%, with Tianci, Xinzhou State, Dongguan Shanshan and Guotai Huarong as the first echelon.

The gross profit margin level of Tianci Materials and Xinzhou State Electrolyte Business has been maintained above 25% for a long time; Tianci Materials produces part of lithium hexafluorophosphate, and the solvent capacity of Xinzhou State is about to be put into production. It is a general trend for electrolyte manufacturers to extend upstream in the future.

Summary: 1, the industry concentration is high, and manufacturers will extend upstream to ensure profits.

2. Additives for electrolyte are the most important.

3. The top 3 companies in the electrolyte industry: Tianci Materials, Xinzhou State and Jiangsu Guotai.

4, lithium hexafluorophosphate faucet: polyfluoride.

5. Upstream and downstream ends of lithium batteries

A: New energy thermal management: the pattern is scattered, but domestic enterprises are accelerating global substitution. Representative enterprises: Sanhua Zhikong, Yin Lun and Aotejia. Among them, Sanhua Intelligent Control is the leader in thermal management, and Yin Lun is mainly a traditional business, deploying new energy to Tesla's supply chain.

B: Lithium-cobalt-nickel industry: resource industry, recycling industry, with high entry threshold. Domestic resources account for a relatively small proportion and are highly dependent on foreign countries. Representatives: Tianqi Lithium Industry, Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Huayou Cobalt Industry and Luoyang Molybdenum Industry.

C: Lithium battery equipment: the power battery has entered a new cycle, the expansion of production has accelerated, equipment manufacturers have ushered in new opportunities, and the leading manufacturers have made clear profits.

Four processes of lithium battery equipment:

1) Pre-core process: including stirring, coating, rolling, cutting, production/die cutting and other processes. The equipment involved in this process section includes vacuum mixer, coater, roller press, slitter, tablet press/die cutter, etc.

2) Intermediate process of battery core: mainly including winding or lamination, welding, electrolyte injection and other processes. The equipment involved in this process section includes winder, laminator, welding machine, drying equipment, automatic liquid injection machine, etc.

3) Post-battery technology: mainly including battery formation and volume detection. This process involves lithium-ion battery charging and discharging motor (used for chemical composition), detection and other equipment.

4) Module and battery pack technology: mainly including battery assembly, connector assembly, module assembly, sealing test and final test. The process section involves module production equipment, packaging equipment, etc.

Later equipment leader: aviation science and technology. Leading intelligence: the leader of the whole industrial chain layout of the front, middle and rear roads.

D: The top five battery companies in China are Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., BYD, AVIC Lithium Battery, Guo Xuan Hi-Tech and Yiwei Lithium Energy.

E: supply chain

Tesla Supply Chain: It is estimated that bicycles from Xu Sheng, Top Group, Sanhua Zhikong, Ningbo Hu Axiang, Huayu Automobile and Daimei are of great value.

F: LG battery supply chain: anode: Shanshan, Dang Sheng Technology; Negative electrode: Shanshan, Barrett, Jiangxi Chenzi; Diaphragm: Xingyuan Materials and En Jie Shares; Electrolyte: Xinzhou State, Jiangsu Guotai, Tianci Material.

G: Supply chain of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.: Positive pole: Tianjin Ba Maw, Zhenhua New Materials, Peking University No.1, Betray; Negative electrode: Shanshan, Putailai; Wet diaphragm: En Jie, Sinoma Technology, Xingyuan Materials, Cangzhou Pearl; Electrolyte: Xinzhou State,

1, battery tap:

Contemporary ampere technology co., ltd. At present, the domestic market share of the company is close to 50%, the global market share is 25%, the existing production capacity is nearly 60GWh, and the European factory will be completed in 20021year.

Byd. The company is a leader in electric vehicles and lithium batteries.

Yiwei Lithium Energy: The company is a leading enterprise of lithium primary battery in China, which has been continuously expanded by international customers in the field of cylindrical battery and TWS earphone battery, and has a deep historical origin with e-cigarettes.

2. Leaders of upstream resource mines:

Lithium Industry: Tianqi Lithium Industry and Ganfeng Lithium Industry

Cobalt: Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum.

3. Cathode material:

German Nano, Bai Rong Science and Technology, Barrett

Dang Sheng technology: High nickel technology is leading.

4. Negative electrode material:

Sell, Jiangxi Chenzi, Shanshan shares

Putelai: Artificial stone ink faucet.

5. Diaphragm material:

En Jie stock, Xingyuan materials.

6. Electrolyte materials:

Godsend materials, Xinzhou state, Jiangsu Guotai

Lithium hexafluorophosphate faucet: polyfluoride.

7. Heat management:

Yin Lun has three flowers.

8. Lithium battery equipment:

Navigation intelligence, aviation technology

9. Electrical control of motor:

Huichuan technology, Wolong electric drive

Summary: There are 2 1 battery-related companies and 6 other companies related to new energy vehicles, ranking the top 27 in the industry.

The last sentence: The above content is the analysis of lithium battery industry and the explanation of leading companies in the industry, and the company is not recommended.

The lithium battery industry is too hot now, so it needs to be cooled before entering the market. Now just list it and analyze it.

References:

Ping An Securities New Energy Industry Report/CITIC Securities New Energy Automobile Industry Investment Strategy

The full text is over!

This article is synchronized with the official WeChat account "Leek Study Room".