What is the development trend of e-commerce?

According to the current market development, iResearch believes that the future e-commerce market in China will be (1) 201Q3, and the e-commerce market in China will continue to develop steadily, with the market transaction scale exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan; From the perspective of market structure, the growth rate of 2C market, which is dominated by online shopping and online travel booking, will continue to be higher than that of 2B market, so the share of online shopping and online travel booking market in e-commerce market will gradually increase, and there is still great room for development. (2) Alliance, cooperation and diversified development will promote B2B enterprises to continuously improve their service level. For example, Alibaba and Bank of Communications reached a strategic cooperation in May, and the two sides will cooperate in many aspects such as fast payment, mobile payment and online financing for SMEs. In addition, the B2B e-commerce service alliance was established in June and spent 30 million yuan to support a large number of traditional small and medium-sized enterprises. (3) The online shopping market is gradually standardized. In April, the Ministry of Commerce issued the Service Specification for Third-Party E-Commerce Trading Platforms, allowing consumers to cancel orders without reason during the cooling-off period. This standard will greatly promote the standardization of e-commerce in China, especially the online shopping market, so as to continuously improve the shopping experience of consumers, and the online shopping market will continue to grow at a high speed.

From these data, China's e-commerce is in a period of rapid development, and the scale of market transactions is also growing rapidly. It is precisely because of this rapid growth trend that some people say that the whole industry of e-commerce will face re-integration or reshuffle. Some people say that there is a bubble in e-commerce, but others think that e-commerce will have great prospects in the future. To this end, BNET business talent network reporter interviewed some e-commerce experts, let's see how they view the future development trend of e-commerce.

Shen Yan, vice president of video media business development, said: "As the largest e-commerce, they expect to form an oligopoly in the end. The top five may be in their position, and the last five to twenty will die, which can effectively reduce media costs. For example, the existence of group buying this year has made e-commerce very unhappy, but I doubt that the price of the website will decrease after the group buying website ebbs. Therefore, I think the competition between the giant enterprise alliance and the ecosystem is the competition between online shopping and Taobao Mall. For example, physical stores have begun to appear in JD.COM Mall. Whether it can support its category in the future will lead to something quite explosive. For example, the cooperation of independent e-commerce, the cooperation of selling clothes and shoes, and listing may happen. It can be seen from the change of general manager Suning.cn that it is actually very difficult for traditional enterprises to enter e-commerce. For traditional enterprises, including operators, including enterprises developed by South China OEM, it is really difficult to change the spare tire while driving. If you don't develop, you will die. If you develop, you will die. There is no way. We estimate that next year will be a period when traditional enterprises will enter the e-commerce channel on a large scale. As a manufacturing company, the sales of e-commerce channels must be like this. "

Happy Ma, vice president of China Real Estate Information Group, said, "I personally think that the e-commerce industry has just started 20 1 1. At first, I mean, in the past few years, all participants, including netizens, have been working together to cultivate several necessary elements for the prosperity of e-commerce. For example, habits, payment, logistics, trading environment, policies, etc., all of us are making or promoting the maturity of the e-commerce industry. Why did it arrive at 20 1 1? We found that since 20 1 1, many major events have taken place in the e-commerce industry, and the development of the whole e-commerce has entered an era of going hand in hand. It doesn't matter that there are some vertical stores outside the general store, and it doesn't matter whether the general store develops vertically or vertically. It doesn't matter that there will be explosive growth in the next few years. In the end, companies that are valuable to the market will survive well. "

Zheng Song, CEO of Qieke.com, said, "I think e-commerce is a trend. Any kind of technological progress is to bring more convenience, simplicity and convenience to people's lives and work. Based on this premise, the electronization of trading and commodity circulation has actually been verified. As long as people are more convenient and consumption is simpler, it will be popularized and accepted by most users. For example, like group buying, group buying is the earliest European business model. The reason why group buying can be so widely accepted, especially at the user level, is because it truly conforms to the consumption habits of users. "

Qin, senior director of Beijing Yima Online Operation Center, said: "First of all, from the market environment, the scale will become larger and larger, the growth rate will drop slightly, and it will continue to go up, but the trend is relatively flat. Second, as far as users are concerned, network users must only cover a small part. There are currently 300 million internet users. With the popularization of technology, the number of users in the network crowd will increase. Market development in China must have this foundation. Specifically, the competition in an industry is becoming more and more fierce. First, there are more and more B2C businesses, and everyone has their own competitiveness. See who can do the best and control the shortcomings. Second, big B2C monopolizes resources. The bigger it is, the lower the cost of locking in capital, the lower the cost of grabbing users and the higher the threshold of new business. This is the problem of the competitive environment in these two aspects. "

Wang Xiaopeng of Yi Kai Capital said: "Generally speaking, e-commerce will have a good development trend. Whether it's C2C, B2C, mobile e-commerce, or now very popular O2O, there are only some changes in the presentation form, but in the final analysis, this change is that the traditional offline has become electronic, which has become an irresistible trend and has a growing momentum. From the initial small businesses selling second-hand goods, and then slowly starting to sell first-hand goods, and then jumping out of big B2C, and now traditional brands or retailers start to do e-commerce, and some start to do O2O in the form of services, from which we can see that e-commerce is more and more deeply involved in our business activities. In the future, although some bad companies will be brushed off or merged, we believe that after baptism, the remaining companies will be comparable to the Red Army's 25,000-mile long March, and the remaining companies will certainly develop better and grow in a healthier environment. I believe that more companies will go public. "

With the sustained and rapid growth of China's e-commerce market, some experts predict that this growth trend of e-commerce market will continue in the next three to five years. Especially with the government's increasing attention to e-commerce in recent two years, a number of support and encouragement policies have been introduced one after another, which will greatly boost the future development of e-commerce market. At the same time, with the establishment and improvement of e-commerce supporting service system (logistics, payment, customer service, etc.). ), we believe that the future e-commerce market will gradually become stable and mature.