Auto projects explode in many places: the decline of new cars and the sorrow of local governments

After the big waves, new forces have suffered a lot of casualties on the road to car manufacturing in 2020. As car companies fail one after another, cities that once dreamed of creating a "Chinese Detroit" or becoming a "New Detroit" are experiencing the sadness after Qianfan's death.

The dissolution and liquidation of Tianjin Bojun has cast a shadow of fragmentation over Jiangsu’s “car dream”.

Tianjin Borjun Automobile Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Tianjin Borjun") was established on November 18, 2019. It is a joint venture between Nanjing Borjun New Energy Vehicle Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Bojun") and FAW Xiali. The crystallization after mixed ownership reform. From that day on, Bojun will have two major production bases in Tianjin and Nanjing, and two planned lands in Lingang, Shanghai and Huaian, Jiangsu. At that time, Bojun was also a high-spirited young man. He originally wanted to take FAW Xiali to the end of the world with his sword, but in the end he failed and hurt her.

When the joint venture was established, FAW Xiali used vehicle-related assets and liabilities such as land, factories, equipment and other assets and liabilities as a "dowry" of 505 million yuan, holding 19.9% ??of the shares. At the same time, 832 former FAW Xiali employees entered Tianjin Bojun to work. If everything goes as planned, this marriage will become a good story.

Reluctantly, since January this year, Tianjin Bojun has been stuck in the predicament of suspended wages and social security payments. On June 29, Huang Ximing, chairman and CEO of Borjun Auto, admitted in an internal letter that Borjun had encountered serious operating difficulties and major cash flow problems, but would work hard to recover the actual losses and adverse effects caused to all parties. A month later, even worse news awaited. Tianjin Bojun’s internal “Employee Resettlement Plan Publicity and Implementation Version” document leaked out. While admitting that the company had owed employees a large amount of wages, social security, provident funds, corporate annuities, etc. , also announced that the controlling shareholder’s financing efforts have failed and that the company has no possibility of returning to normal operations.

Tianjin Bojun is going bankrupt, which reflects the powerlessness of Bojun. Reluctant but helpless, this is the case in Bo County and the same is true in Jiangsu. In addition to Bojun, Byton, Sailin, Qiantu, Singularity, etc., which have become typical representatives of this round of new forces, there are even Tianmei Automobile, Chinese Horizon's Gaohe Automobile, etc. that are in urgent need of market review.

Jiangsu embraced the dream of creating a new era of Detroit, opened its arms, contributed money and effort to develop land, built a nest and waited for the return of the phoenix. However, it was ruthlessly defeated in the choice of the times and ushered in a new creation dramatically. What is the reason behind the “annihilation” of the car era? Those places that still hope to use new forces to promote the dream of "100 billion industry, 10 billion tax revenue, and tens of thousands of jobs" should re-examine what is behind the big pie. Is it a hope or a minefield?

Light and shadow are tug-of-war. When the light source becomes smaller, the huge shadow will reach towards the world and extend its darkest claws, causing the dream of the meteor to fail. At this moment, Jiangsu has no other choice but to face it.

The unsustainable original dream

Except for Bojun, which cannot hold on, there are more than 15 new car-making companies in Jiangsu that have attracted investment since 2016, and now only the remaining Li Auto, which was listed on Nasdaq 4 days ago, has entered the next round of competition. Many car companies such as Yinlong, Singularity, Qiantu, and Min'an not only have poor sales, but some have even gone bankrupt and have been sealed in the past. In the years.

If we follow the judgment of Wang Xing, the founder of Meituan, only NIO, Ideal and Xpeng Motors will survive in the new car-making forces in the future, Jiangsu seems to have made a bet, even if the probability is lower than 10%, at least it’s not a waste of money. But if we understand the ambition of Jiangsu's "car dream", this idea probably won't exist, and we might even feel a little sorry for Jiangsu.

Long before the rise of new energy in China, Jiangsu Province proposed in the 2010 special planning outline for the development of the new energy vehicle industry that “it is necessary to focus on new energy vehicles and key components, and cultivate a number of own brands while cultivating a new energy vehicle industry base." It can be seen from this that Jiangsu has judged the next round of automotive trends in advance.

Just as Jiangsu thought, four years later, new car-making forces sprung up like mushrooms after the rain, and then became overwhelming, causing governments in various places to recruit frantically. Nanjing alone was so generous that it was shocking. In order to build a specialized new energy vehicle industry base, Nanjing has planned four areas including Jiangbei New District, Jiangning District, Lishui District, and Nanjing Economic Development Zone. The intention of this move is obvious. The land has been planned for everyone, and new forces are welcome to move in. .

Starting in 2016, Nanjing has officially recruited talents. In December 2016, Bojun Automobile Park, which had just been registered in Nanjing, received an investment of 10 billion yuan from the local industrial fund. It was hailed as "one of the major industrial projects in Nanjing in recent years" and covers an area of ??2,000 acres. What Borjun "promises" is that after the completion of the first phase, the annual pure electric vehicle production capacity will reach 100,000 units, and the Nanjing Municipal Government has set an "estimated annual total profit of 4.2 billion yuan and a tax revenue of 3.7 billion yuan." Target.

In September of the following year, Byton smart electric vehicles started construction in the Sino-German Industrial Park in Nanjing Development Zone. Even former German Prime Minister Schroeder attended the ceremony in person. The Nanjing Municipal Government hopes that using Byton as a starting point, this global production base with a total investment of more than 11 billion yuan can enable the place to achieve an annual production capacity of 500,000 new energy vehicles and an annual output value of 100 billion.

As Nanjing made such a large-scale effort to attract investment, more new car-making forces and parts companies were later added, including Jingneng New Energy Vehicles, Changan Weilai, Zhidou Electric Vehicles, Min. Real new energy vehicles (Min'an Automobile), Byton Automobile, Yinlong New Energy, Tianmei Automobile, etc.

Watching more and more new car-making forces joining Nanjing, in 2019, Nanjing proposed the "Action Plan to Create a New Energy Vehicle Industry Landmark" with the goal of building the new energy vehicle industry into a city that highlights Nanjing's characteristics The landmark industry has reached the industrial level of "first in the province, top three in the country, and globally influential".

According to the plan, Nanjing’s new energy vehicle production will account for more than half of Jiangsu Province’s total vehicle output in 2020, and its main business revenue will strive to reach 100 billion yuan, ranking among the top five cities in the country, with 3~ There are 5 key new energy passenger vehicle companies, 6 to 8 key new energy commercial vehicle companies, and 8 to 10 leading companies in the key parts industry.

Not only Nanjing, but other places in Jiangsu are also following the lead of big brother Nanjing. Rugao next door has introduced Sailin Automobile with a total investment of 17.8 billion yuan. This is not only the largest single manufacturing project in Nantong with total investment, but also an important role in the local "100 billion-level industrial park". Rugao's arrival was so grand at the beginning, but its "explosion of thunder" more than two years later was so jaw-dropping. Subsequently, more than 30 new energy-related companies settled in Rugao, including Kandi Electric Vehicles, Youth Automobile, etc.

According to statistics from the Tianyancha Data News Laboratory, as of March 24, 2020, 11,796 new energy vehicle companies were registered in Jiangsu Province. Behind Jiangsu's eagerness for success, it has been suffering from not having its own car brand for a long time. After Nanjing Automobile was transferred to SAIC, Jiangsu no longer had a strong automobile brand. Compared to Guangdong with GAC and BYD, Shanghai with SAIC, and Zhejiang with Geely, although the economy ranks among the top in the country, in terms of automobile brands and popularity, Jiangsu is indeed lagging behind to a certain extent.

There has been a rumor circulating that Jiangsu Province has a developed manufacturing industry and its auto parts production capacity ranks first in the country. However, at best, it can only be regarded as a parts processing cluster and a vehicle assembly factory. That’s all. There are so many high-quality resources, but why haven't we cultivated well-known automobile companies that belong to Jiangsu like its brother provinces?

The more cruel fact is that Jiangsu’s traditional automobile industry is currently weak. Traditional car companies such as Jaguar Land Rover and Qoros are in decline. In the field of passenger cars, Jiangsu does not have a good car brand; at the same time, The GDP competition among provinces and regions has also put pressure on local governments to attract the automobile industry. You must know that the huge upstream and downstream chains of the automobile industry can bring more jobs and tax revenue. Without traditional fuel vehicles, it may not be a good choice to seize the new forces in car manufacturing.

So it is impossible for Jiangsu to give up on the automobile industry. Even if new car-making forces in various places explode one after another, and even if only ideal cars are left that have not passed the life-or-death line, Jiangsu will still not be able to pursue its dream of becoming a powerful automobile province. will stop.

An endless competition

Not only Jiangsu will not stop, but other provinces will not give up either. The competition in the automobile industry is fierce all the time. In recent years, new car companies have emerged one after another in my country and are blooming everywhere. On the one hand, this is due to the country’s strong guidance on new energy vehicles, a strategic emerging industry. On the other hand, it is also closely related to the local government’s promotion of investment promotion.

Around 2015, new car-making forces sprung up like mushrooms after a rain. Dozens of new car manufacturers are dazzling, and competition for automotive revolution has begun everywhere.

Local governments know very well that at this stage, whoever can support a new car-making force that can lead the world in the future will hold the golden key to the next era.

In addition to Jiangsu, Jiangxi, located in the central region of the motherland, does not have an advantage in traditional car manufacturing. The desire to ride on the express train of smart electric vehicles is particularly strong, especially when Jiangling Motors is weak and Changhe Automobile Tour On the verge of life and death, there is a demand and even an extraordinary desire for the presence of car manufacturing companies.

From the launch of AIWAYS in Rao, to the arrival of Hezhong in Yichun, from the introduction of Guoji Zhijun and Changwei to Ganzhou, and then to the settlement of Green Packet in Jiujiang, Jiangxi has joined hands with more than 10 new energy vehicle companies in a very short period of time , the cumulative planned investment exceeds 80 billion yuan, and the planned annual production capacity is as high as 1.5 million vehicles. There is no doubt that Jiangxi is the province with the largest investment in new energy vehicles. Yes, when the National Development and Reform Commission decentralized new energy review qualifications to local governments, Jiangxi was the most active and took the lead in recognizing Guoji Zhijun.

However, this phenomenon of popular growth quickly attracted attention. At the beginning of last year, the National Development and Reform Commission named and criticized local development and reform commissions and several new car manufacturers that were eager to launch new production capacity. Jiangxi is a typical example. "Jiangxi's new energy vehicle industry investment enthusiasm ranks first in the country, but its capacity utilization rate is significantly lower than the national average. It is necessary to curb the overheating of investment in the automobile industry.”

Fortunately, Jiangxi stopped the car in time, but the initial investment in real money has been lost, and sales have not picked up, which is a problem for enterprises and local governments. It's a very embarrassing thing. For example, AIWAYS was previously exposed to wage arrears and the cancellation of year-end bonuses. Currently, the Shangrao base has thousands of workers and produces less than 100 Nissan cars. The construction progress of Hezhong's base in Yichun has also been delayed. Guoji Zhijun only sells a few hundred vehicles per month, while Changwei and Lvchi are stalling due to lack of production qualifications.

New forces need to be driven by capital to maintain operations. Once the speed of burning money, capital investment and output do not match, it will be a matter of time before the company has operational problems. What's more serious is that the development speed and sales of new energy sources from last year's capital are far lower than expected. The situation of more people and less rice is bound to drive many cake eaters out of the chess game. It seems foreseeable that if the new energy market environment does not improve in time and the competition brought about by the leading new forces and traditional car companies continues to worsen, the next province where the new forces will be wiped out will be Jiangxi.

The automobile project is a key project in almost every province and city, and many places hope to turn their hometowns into Detroit in the new era. However, from the decline of Detroit in the United States to the plight of Detroit and Chongqing in China, they all tell the industry that pigs can fly when the wind blows, but not everyone can bear the sudden drop in temperature.

Perhaps like Jiangsu at that time, the local funds were wasted. How to end the mess left after the planned base was shut down? For a local government, an investment of hundreds of millions is just a small amount of money. At most, it is just a payment of tuition. At least the project has been introduced and the industry chain has been established. Even if the previous company goes bankrupt, it will be enough to find a next company to take over. It's just that following the employees of the company, countless families are facing the risk of unemployment, and then they are triggered to demand their rights and wages. How sad this is.

In fact, looking back on the wave of Chinese car brands 20 years ago, there are striking similarities with the current new forces building cars. With the rise of a wave of independent brands such as Chery, Geely, Great Wall, and BYD, "laymen" have also begun to covet China's booming new era of automobiles. Bird Auto, Oaks Auto, Shuanghuan Auto and even more nameless cross-border car manufacturers are springing up like mushrooms after a rain. It's just that the rules taught them a lesson - building a car is not easy, and not everyone can do it. Subsequently, there were only a few successful people, and the many followers became just a grain of sand in the development of China's automobiles, and were soon submerged in the long river of history.

The people of Qin had no time to mourn themselves, and later generations mourned them. Later generations mourned without taking notice of it, which also made future generations mourn for future generations again. Under this Great Leap Forward, whether projects are king, investment KPIs, etc. are realistic, whether the opportunities in the automobile industry are really suitable for the local area, and what the objective laws and business processes are, this is worthy of careful consideration by every local investment promoter and leader. .

Gan Fangli/Written

This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.