Will the local electric car and Apple car come next year? Don't believe everything! Don't guess, don't doubt!

To cut to the chase, I have the following three judgments to share and discuss with you:

You can't believe that iCar will be released smoothly next September.

Don't bother to guess iCar's mysterious face

There is no need to doubt the intelligent strength of iCar.

Titan, an Apple car-making project in the fog, finally "cleared the clouds" with media colleagues in Taiwan Province Province, China.

65438+February 2 1 Economic Daily, the core financial media in Taiwan Province Province, China, announced that Apple will release Apple in September 20021year. Cars-this is two or three years ahead of the time generally predicted by the industry.

Is the evidence conclusive?

Don't believe everything, ok, see you next year.

After many friends enthusiastically followed up this explosive news, Vernacular EV closely combed the "evidence" released by Apple next year and highly condensed it into the following three points:

First, from HeDa to FTU -KY, from motor (Futian) to relay (He Qin), Tesla's major suppliers in Taiwan Province Province have received notice from Apple: expand production quickly and start construction next year!

Second, Foxconn, Apple's royal partner, made a "change" earlier this year. Its parent company, Hon Hai Precision, teamed up with Yulong to suddenly release malicious words, saying that it will take 5-7 years to win the market share of electric vehicle market 10%.

Third, pursuing the "standard product strategy" is Apple's eternal style, which is in the iPhone? 1 1 Without pushing the 5G model, will it be the iPhone this year? In the previous example, there is no doubt that 12 realizes 5G; However, with the increasing modernization of automobiles, digital networked electric vehicles with autonomous driving technology have become a hot "standard" commodity, not a gimmick, so Apple suddenly became anxious and let it go. Really!

However, I don't fully believe that iCar will be released smoothly in September next year! There are three reasons:

First, the real vehicle verification time is too tight.

For the time being, I believe that what this "senior supplier who does not want to be named" said is true, and I also believe that all-in-one "Tesla" suppliers have the ability to expand production in a very short time with rich practical experience and match the corresponding technology and production capacity for Apple. However, after all, we must adhere to the "rules" of reliability verification in order to make a real car.

What Zhao Benshan said is extremely: "Take two steps, take two steps without illness!" However, Apple's car has to go more than "two steps", but a million kilometers of strict verification. Less than 1 year is obviously not enough.

Second, the mystery of production capacity has yet to be solved.

Building a car is no more than producing a mobile phone. It requires building a large-scale factory. The picture shows a "top secret location" near Apple headquarters in Cupertino, which is actually Titan's R&D center. It is no problem to develop cars there, but it is absolutely impossible to build cars in batches in this building.

Although "the stability of thousands of people for many years", "the gathering of industry elites" and "the continuation of autonomous driving patents" can all serve as solid hammer evidence for the orderly advancement of Titan's plan, even Musk should be a model? 3 "Productivity Hell" sleeps anxiously in the workshop floor supervisor, urging the "tent" factory to be built quickly, but I really didn't see Cook's action on the production capacity of the car-making business.

Of course, it is not impossible for you to say that Apple is best at keeping secrets and making a car factory that comes out of nowhere transparent.

Third, the lack of experience in building a car is very likely to jump the ticket.

It is common for new forces to jump the ticket. What's more, they kept skipping tickets until they disappeared. There are too many examples of Ranger, FF and Bo County to list them one by one. They may be dead in the eyes of money, but Apple is not short of money; Not only is there no shortage of money, but also talents and technical strength, but experience is still lacking.

To put it bluntly, you can believe that iCar will be released in September next year, but in 2022, it will be difficult for Tesla and Weilai to get along. I believe that Apple Auto is not much easier than its predecessors.

Don't guess What does the conductor look like?

Even the "powerful function" of mobile phones: For electronic products with "designs", fruit powder often spits out after the autumn conference, such as Liu Haiping and obsessive-compulsive disorder. It can be seen that the concept of "face value is justice" is also applicable to various products.

Thus, since Apple broke Titan's car-making plan in 20 14, various imaginary iCar diagrams have emerged one after another. ...

Of course, for a company like Apple, which regards secrecy as its life, these "net maps" are really meaningless-you must never doubt those head companies that are good at subverting the industry, and their brains are definitely deeper than those of netizens!

The most classic case is Tesla Cybertruck.

Before 2065438+09165438+1October 22nd, based on Musk's "exaggerated" description of Tesla pickup truck design, many "exaggerated" Cybertruck imaginary drawings were circulated on the Internet.

However, after seeing the real Cybertruck car on October 22nd, 2065438+09165438/KLOC-0, netizens can only exclaim "We are still too young".

So, don't bother to imagine iCar's face, just look forward to it.

No doubt? force at the core

What you look like is really second. After all, hiring one or two NB designers can do it. What is really worth looking forward to is the internal digital strength of iCar hard core.

Although the author's understanding of iCar is exactly the same as the reader's (that is, he knows nothing), we really don't need to doubt the intelligence level of iCar from the following five angles.

First, comb the time.

When everyone thought that the initial appearance of Apple's car-making plan was Titan launched on 20 14, I had to add that as early as 2007, Jobs named the company Apple? The computer was renamed Apple, which was the starting point of Apple's ambition to expand its business scope, and Jobs' strong interest in automobile business before his death was also an important foreshadowing of Apple's automobile business.

In 20 14, Apple's official spokesperson was impassioned about the approval of the Titan project, and simply and rudely said "Give Tesla a head-on blow", but this kind of rhetoric is also the only "official voice" in the past six years. Apple's cautious and persistent silence on the car-making business is in stark contrast to the high-profile of a group of new car-making forces, and it has also made the outside world doubt countless times: Is Apple's car "yellow"? However, in the early years, your market value was 1 trillion dollars, and your cash reserve was 250 billion dollars-completely different from the "hunger" of the new car-making forces. People's apples are "not short of money" and don't need PPT to attract investors, so it's not surprising that "cars don't use words".

People who are well versed in the development cycle of new cars are knowledgeable. 48-60 months is a reasonable period to develop a new car. For a "new car", "technology control" and "subversive" manufacturer like Apple, it is completely reasonable to add a few more years. In this way, it is absolutely in line with the development cycle of Apple's first model release iCar in 202 1.

Second, the depth of talent.

For a strong capital reserve, the talent matrix is the easiest to get. Therefore, in the past six years, the news about Apple's car-making talents has been uninterrupted.

At the high end, Tesla is Apple's most important target.

20 18 Dogfield is in charge of Tesla models? After five years of development, I returned to Apple, joined the Titan team and presided over the work. At the same time, it has rich and valuable experience in the fields of electric balance car (Segway), intelligent hardware (Apple Mac hardware engineering), traditional automobile research and development (Ford), intelligent robot (DEKA), new energy electric vehicle (Tesla) and so on. He retired from Apple a while ago, and iCar will be the last work of his career.

Chris, former vice president of automotive engineering at Tesla? Bo Park Jung Su joined Apple. He is the chief engineer of aston martin, suggesting that Apple's plan may be to launch high-end cars.

Former Tesla mechanical engineering manager david nielsen, former senior powertrain testing engineer john ireland and former Tesla recruiter Lauren Simini also joined Apple.

But Tesla wasn't the only one who was dug up. Battery company A 123, NVIDIA, MissionMotors, Here Map, Zurich Federal Institute of Technology, and many other OEMs are the targets of Apple's poaching.

In terms of scale, a handful of three pieces of news have proved that the expansion of the Titan team is beyond the imagination of the outside world.

20 14, "A research team of several hundred people has been set up".

20 16, when cook "stopped" the smoke bomb of the car-making project, "the team of thousands of people will turn to specialize in autonomous driving technology".

July 7, 20 18? Zhang, a former Apple employee who left Xpeng Motors, was arrested on suspicion of stealing secrets. In the subsequent judicial proceedings, Apple was forced to provide the number of employees in relevant departments. "The total number of employees is1350,000, and the number of R&D personnel specializing in automobile-related business is 5,000."

Hundreds of people, thousands of people, and 5,000 people, the geometric growth of the team size once again confirmed Apple's seriousness about the car-making business.

Third, patent accumulation.

No matter how you hide it, the secret of iCar will be revealed by the patent application information that must be made public.

In 2020 alone, Apple has successfully applied for nearly 100 automobile-related patents. If you don't list more, simply take out three examples:

1, "occupant safety system": a system to avoid collision between two passengers sitting face to face in a vehicle.

2. "Window adjustment system": Passengers can adjust the color and reflectivity of the window, or enter the "fog surface" mode.

3. "Automatic alignment charging equipment": the vehicle can approach the charging pile by itself, and the pile car enters the docking state with full intelligence and automation.

There are so many amazing patents that the expectation index of iCar is very high. I only hope that the installation rate of many black technologies that have successfully applied for patents is getting higher and higher!

Fourth, the road test data.

As long as you want to achieve automatic driving, the original accumulation of road test data is the only way.

Although Apple doesn't have a real car, it has put self-driving vehicles on the road.

According to the photos exposed by local media after Apple obtained the automatic driving license of American road test in 20 17, Lexus RX450h took the place of Apple on the road, and the fleet size expanded from time to time. In recent reports, Apple's road test team has 70 cars.

According to the data exposed last year, Apple's achievement is that the total mileage of road test reaches 7544 miles (about1.2000 kilometers), MPD (miles? Per？ Disengagement, the most intuitive indicator to measure the "driving level" of self-driving cars, is 1 17.88 miles (about 189.7 kilometers).

Of course, because there is no batch delivery of commercial vehicles to accumulate road test data, Apple may be barely equal to the road test length of the head autopilot technology company, but the MPD level is far behind the technology giants such as Waymo, and the road test length is only one millionth of Tesla.

Fifth, evolutionary ability.

Data accumulation is backward, but after all, Apple is the ancestor of software iteration and system ecology. Isn't OTA a magic weapon for the automobile circle to "steal teachers" from the mobile phone industry collectively?

Therefore, the most anticipated digital function of iCar is its evolutionary ability.

Perhaps, after the release of iCar, the spring conference and WWDC, which are more inclined to system and ecological changes, will have higher attention (in a sense, system iteration is equivalent to car model update); Apple's most valued first-quarter earnings report will no longer rely heavily on the market performance of new iPhone products; In addition, the addition of the iCar section will definitely double the length of Apple's annual autumn conference, and the main event will be offset.

It is undeniable that the industry has the same understanding of the excellent iterative evolution strength of Apple products. It has become a conclusion that these advantages are seamlessly transplanted from electronic products to automobile products, which is also an important cornerstone for Apple to directly have strong brand power when launching its first automobile product.

How many cars can Apple build? Sure, how many cars can Apple build? How much to look forward to! I hope that in the near future, we can invite iCar to the vernacular EV as soon as possible.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.