It is predicted that the epidemic will reach its peak in May 438+10 next June, and this factor may accelerate its spread-

In the afternoon of 65438+February, the press conference on epidemic prevention and control in Zhejiang Province introduced that according to various research models at home and abroad, the first wave of epidemic in Zhejiang Province is expected to reach its peak around the middle of 65438+ 10 next year, which coincides with the Lunar New Year and will accelerate with the population flow.

Recently, Jiangxi, Shandong, Hunan, Yichang, Hubei and other places have predicted the arrival time of local epidemic peaks, mostly in 65438+ 10 next year.

Multi-position prediction

The peak period of infection will be+10 in June 5438 next year.

65438+February 65438+May, the press conference on epidemic prevention and control in COVID-19, Jiangxi Province was introduced. According to experts' analysis and judgment, the next wave of epidemic peak in Jiangxi Province will come at the end of this year and early next year, reaching a peak around the Spring Festival.

Liang Dong, head of the medical treatment expert group of COVID-19 epidemic disposal headquarters in Shandong Province, said recently that the epidemic prevention and control in Shandong Province is relatively strict and in place, and the first wave of peak period will be slightly delayed compared with other regions. "I expect it to be 65438+ 10 next year. In addition, cities are more densely populated than rural areas, and the epidemic summit in rural areas is relatively late. "

According to Hunan Daily 18, relevant experts said that it is impossible to predict the specific date when the epidemic in Hunan will reach its peak, but according to the current development of the epidemic, it will reach its peak around the Spring Festival.

According to the news released by Yichang on June 5438+February 15, Du Debing, head of the medical treatment expert group of COVID-19 in Yichang City, Hubei Province, and vice president of the Third People's Hospital of Yichang City, said that it is expected that there will be a peak of infection in Yichang in early June 10, but the infection rate will not be 80%-90%.

Wu Zunyou: Epidemic situation this winter

It can be summarized as "one peak and three waves"

Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, pointed out at the annual meeting of Caijing on June 5438+07 that the epidemic situation this winter can be summarized as "one peak and three waves".

From mid-February to1mid-October, 65438, the first wave of epidemic will be dominated by cities, and will gradually increase in the future.

The second wave is 65438+1from late October to mid-February, and the flow of people before the Spring Festival leads to the second wave of epidemic.

The third wave is from late February to mid-March, and will resume work after the Spring Festival.

These three waves constitute the epidemic peak in COVID-19 this winter, which lasts for about three months.

Wu Zunyou said that the epidemic infection rate is expected to be 10%-30% this winter.

Zhang Boli: Next 1 to 2 months.

There will be a wave of fashion peaks.

Academician Zhang Boli said in an interview on February 4th, 18 that according to the current situation in China, Omicron virus strain has spread in the society, and it is currently in the high season of influenza and common cold in winter, and there will be another epidemic peak in the next 1 2 months.

Zhang Wenhong: The peak of this epidemic.

It may come within a month.

65438+February 65438+February, Professor Zhang Wenhong, director of the National Center for Infectious Diseases and Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University, published an article on the official account of "Huashan Infection" WeChat, calling on the COVID-19 epidemic to enter the "last journey" and eventually turn into a seasonal epidemic. At this stage, the whole society needs to mobilize to protect the elderly and vulnerable groups. The core principle is to do everything possible to delay the infection time of the elderly.

Zhang Wenhong said: The epidemic peak may come within a month. It is suggested that the elderly should not dance square dance and play mahjong this month, and their children should wear N95 masks when visiting the elderly.

Extended reading:

Many places predict that the epidemic will reach its peak in June+10 next year. How to grasp the window period and take the initiative to attack?

On the afternoon of 65438+February 18, the press conference on epidemic prevention and control in Zhejiang Province introduced that according to various research models at home and abroad, the first wave of epidemic in Zhejiang is expected to reach its peak around 65438+ 10 in mid-June next year, and the possibility of early arrival is not ruled out.

With the development of the epidemic, recently, many places are predicting the arrival time of the local epidemic peak. On the whole, in June next year, 5438+ 10, many places will usher in the peak of epidemic infection, which coincides with the Lunar New Year, and the epidemic will accelerate with the population flow.

In the face of the epidemic peak, how to seize the window period and prepare in advance will become the key.

Many places will enter the peak period of infection in June+10 next year.

65438+February 15, Jiangxi Provincial Government Information Office held a press conference on epidemic prevention and control in COVID-19, Jiangxi. Gong Jianping, head of the comprehensive team and medical treatment team of Jiangxi Provincial Epidemic Prevention and Control Command, said that according to experts' analysis and judgment, the next wave of epidemic peak in Jiangxi Province will arrive at the end of this year and early next year, and it will reach its peak around the Spring Festival.

At present, more areas predict that the peak of local epidemic infection will be 65438+ next year 10.

Liang Dong, head of the medical treatment expert group of novel coronavirus epidemic disposal headquarters in Shandong Province, said recently that the epidemic prevention and control in Shandong Province is strict and in place, and the first wave of peak period will be slightly delayed compared with other regions. "I expect it to be 65438+ 10 next year. In addition, cities are more densely populated than rural areas, and the epidemic summit in rural areas is relatively late. "

According to local media reports in Hunan, relevant experts said that it is impossible to predict the specific date of the peak of the epidemic in Hunan at present, but according to the current development of the epidemic, it will reach its peak around the Spring Festival.

According to the news of "Cangnan Release" published by WeChat WeChat official account of the Propaganda Department of Cangnan County Committee, it is predicted that the first wave of epidemic peak in Cangnan will arrive in the middle and late June next year, and there will be some deviation in the arrival time of the peak due to human intervention.

According to the news released by Yichang in June 5438+February 65438+May, Du Debing, head of the medical treatment expert group of Yichang COVID-19 and vice president of Yichang Third People's Hospital, said that it is expected that Yichang will have a peak infection in early October next year, but the infection rate will not be 80-90%.

Predicting the peak time of local epidemic situation is conducive to grasping the window period and making preparations in advance.

For example, Gong Jianping, head of the comprehensive group and medical treatment group of Jiangxi Provincial Epidemic Prevention and Control Command, said that the command systems at all levels in Jiangxi Province have made emergency preparations, set up special classes for medical treatment, and established an epidemic monitoring and early warning and trend simulation system to predict the epidemic in time, flexibly reflect the corresponding medical load, and strive for the initiative of prevention and control.

How to deal with it in advance

The fight against the COVID-19 epidemic has changed from an initial quick victory to a decisive battle, which is an important goal at present. With the increase of the number of infected people, it is bound to increase the rate of serious illness. Once the rate of serious illness rises in a large area, medical resources will face the risk of being decomposed. How to do a good job in graded diagnosis and treatment and prevent medical resources from leaking has become the focus. After entering 1, all localities have entered the peak of returning home during the Spring Festival, and large-scale people will return to the countryside from big cities. The prevention and control of epidemic situation in rural areas is the most important.

As early as 65438+February 7th, National Health Commission issued the "Notice on the graded diagnosis and treatment scheme with medical associations as the carrier in COVID-19", proposing to scientifically co-ordinate regional medical resources according to the principle of "health monitoring, classified management, up-and-down linkage and effective treatment", taking the grid layout of medical associations as the carrier, and improving the referral mechanism among designated hospitals, designated hospitals, medical associations and tertiary general hospitals with external cooperation of medical associations.

Then, in 65438+February and 65438+June, the National Health Planning Commission again issued the Notice on Strengthening the Work Plan of Epidemic Prevention and Health Services in Rural Areas of COVID-19 to guide the rural areas to do a good job in epidemic prevention and health services in COVID-19 during the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival in 2023. The circular also calls for ensuring the manpower allocation of rural medical and health institutions, coordinating the deployment of medical personnel in the county, and increasing the establishment of medical personnel in township hospitals in combination with the population and service volume served by township hospitals. The medical staff in township hospitals can be rapidly expanded by sending doctors to higher-level hospitals, recruiting retired medical staff in the past five years, and increasing temporary staff.

At present, all localities are also stepping up preparations for peak pressure.

Liang Dong, head of the medical treatment expert group of novel coronavirus Epidemic Management Command, said that in order to solve the phenomenon of medical loss, some shelters were transformed into designated hospitals, which can be used to treat ordinary and severe COVID-19 patients. "Of course, all medical institutions may have to be prepared to treat COVID-19 patients." He said that medical institutions are already in full swing and will be completed in about one month.

Cangnan County, Zhejiang Province is also supplementing and adjusting various medical resources to fully prepare for the impact. 12 14, Cangnan county decided to openly recruit 200 nurses for the whole society to further ensure the reception capacity of designated hospitals and sub-designated hospitals. At present, the number of critically ill beds in county people's hospitals has reached more than 8% of the total number of beds. The number of beds in designated hospitals increased from 100 to 392, and the number of beds in secondary designated hospitals increased from 300 to 388. The county also invested 40 million to 50 million yuan to purchase corresponding medical equipment, and these facilities and equipment have been purchased in place one after another.

65438+On the afternoon of February 65438+August 6, at the press conference of epidemic prevention and control in Zhejiang Province, Chen Zhong, executive deputy director of the Office of the Leading Group for Epidemic Prevention and Control in Zhejiang Province and deputy secretary-general of the Zhejiang Provincial Government, said that in order to scientifically and accurately respond to the upcoming peak, we should try our best to delay the peak, effectively cut the peak, smoothly cross the peak, achieve the goal of "keeping healthy and preventing serious diseases" and effectively coordinate the epidemic prevention and control with economic and social development. At present, Zhejiang province is mainly.

Specifically, in terms of improving the medical treatment ability, Zhejiang Province should establish and improve the graded diagnosis and treatment system. According to the requirements of all hospitals, all hospitals and 24-hour clinics, the expansion of fever clinics has been accelerated. As of June 65438+February 65438+July, there were 390 fever clinics in medical institutions above the second level in Zhejiang Province, and there were 1272 fever clinics at the grass-roots level, covering more than 90% of towns and villages. The beds and ICU beds in designated hospitals and sub-designated hospitals in Zhejiang Province have exceeded the national standards, ensuring that all receivables and treatments are collected. In order to further improve the treatment capacity, we will continue to keep all refuge hospitals and upgrade them according to the standards of designated hospitals, so as to ensure the treatment needs of ordinary COVID-19 patients. At the same time, in order to alleviate the pressure of offline medical treatment, Internet hospitals have been opened in Hangzhou and other places, and people in need can consult online, effectively diverting the pressure of fever clinics. In urban communities and rural areas, distribution teams will be established to provide timely drug and living materials procurement services for the elderly, the disabled and other family medical staff.