Scare off Luo Yonghao, force travelers to stop, and pit horses. How long is the window period for building a car?

Editor/Qian Yaguang

Design/Zhao Haoran

No other word can make the founder of the new car so emotional.

The Internet has memories. Judging from the existing written historical materials, the discussion about the window period of the automobile industry has existed for at least six years.

In this process, the door of building a car is like the story of "Wolf Coming", which is opened and closed, closed and opened. The "window period" has become the sword of Damocles hanging over the head of every new car, and the leaders keep it in mind and talk about it.

The latest leader is Yu Chengdong, managing director of Huawei, CEO of terminal business and CEO of BU, a smart car solution. On February 22, 2023, he reiterated that it is rare for Huawei to be serious if it does not build cars in person. "The opportunity for smart electric vehicles is fleeting, and only the next two or three years will be the window period. Huawei must seize this time. "

Yu Chengdong thinks, "At present, the global automobile industry is undergoing a major reshuffle, just like the mobile phone industry more than a decade ago. In the future, many auto companies will undergo major mergers and major adjustments, and a large number of them may die. "

This kind of argument will appear every once in a while in the automobile circle. The extended meaning of "window period" is the deadline. As soon as the window is closed, the game is over, and everything is late.

This dead line also scared off "outsiders." On June 13, 2022, in the last interview before quitting the Internet, Luo Yonghao made no secret of his appreciation of the electric vehicle industry, but based on realistic thinking, he gave up.

"In the three years when I was busy paying my debts, in addition to the three new forces that built cars, many super heavyweight players also appeared one after another. We have comprehensively estimated various difficulties and time windows and feel that it is too late. "

Luo Yonghao's understanding of Deadline is probably similar to that of He. 202 1 12, He Wei, Chairman and CEO of Xpeng Automobile, said in an interview with a talk show that 2024 is the last window of this round of car-building, after which the competition will become fierce.

This time node in 2024 is representative in the automobile industry. However, Ding Lei, founder, chairman and CEO of Chinese Express Gaohe Automobile, does not agree with this view. He believes: "The distance between the new forces and the traditional forces will become wider and wider, and the corresponding window period will become wider and wider."

Su Weiming, CEO of Renault China and founder of Beyonce, also believes that the window period for building cars has not yet reached the stage of tightening. He divided the development of China's new energy vehicle market into three stages. The third stage is 2025-2030, which is the best market window period for high-end and luxury electric vehicles.

"It is estimated that by 2030, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 68%, and the penetration rate of high-end passenger cars will reach 35.4%. The market segment at the junction of new energy and luxury cars can be said to be a blue ocean, bringing a market of millions of orders every year. " Su Wei said.

The development rhythm of the enterprise, based on the leader's prediction of future development, Beyonce's first product will be mass-produced in 2024.

Tracing back to the source, the word "window period" originated from the medical field, which refers to the time period after the virus infects the human body and can be identified by blood test. But in fact, even if the virus is detected during this time, it is ultimately incurable.

But in the automobile industry, the window period has become a productive force, helping enterprises to race against time and bravely pursue their dreams.

The Yangtze River, Wanxiang, Future, Baiteng, Singularity ... It seems a long time ago that the first batch of new car-making forces fell; Around 2023, the automobile market was filled with the smell of wind and rain. The self-help tour announced that the car was suspended due to qualification problems. Xiaomi's products are still hiding half a face behind her guitar in front of us, Weimar's IPO has been delayed, and Du Ji, which has not yet been mass-produced, is trying to rub the hot spot of ChatGPT.

Qualification, listing, products, market ... Is the "window period" of the legendary smart electric new car software or hardware? Has the "last admission ticket" for the new car been issued? Can the remaining brands catch up?

Elephants of traditional car companies turn around.

Be famous early, build a car early.

20 18 is the delivery year of new car-making forces. Before and after this, there are endless discussions about the window period. At that time, the reserves of science and technology, policy, capital and supply chain gathered into powerful potential energy, which promoted the intelligent transformation of the traditional automobile industry. Newly built cars firmly believe that the "window period" means that the elephants of traditional car companies should quickly gain a foothold before they turn around.

2017,65438+10/4, Li Bin, the founder of weilai automobile, shared his thoughts on the automobile industry when attending a forum. "In 2020, the window period of new car-making forces will be closed, and more and more traditional car companies will enter this field."

"If we can upgrade our brand in these three years, China's electric vehicle industry will not be dominated by foreign brands, but must be dominated by China brands. Electric vehicles rely heavily on local services, and foreign brands have no chance for products that rely on local services. Therefore, in the three years of brand upgrading, we must be firm, be firm, take a long-term view, and don't consider short-term petty profits. "

Looking back now, Weilai Automobile still seized the window period of these three years. The data shows that Weilai's revenue in 2022 reached 49.27 billion yuan, up 36.3% year-on-year, and delivered122,486 vehicles throughout the year, up 34% year-on-year.

There are still some that have not been caught. In March of 20 18, Freeman Shen, the founder and CEO of Weimar automobile, once said, "The traditional automobile enterprises in 2020 -202 1 are the best window for new forces to build cars because of the lag in implementation." At that time, the prototype of the first production car EX5 had just rolled off the assembly line in Wenzhou factory. Weimar automobile was preparing to make great efforts at that time, and never thought of "living like an animal".

"The reason why the window period is set is because traditional automobile companies have both money and people. At present, they just haven't established a complete R&D and production system of intelligent electric vehicles, and haven't launched related products, which is not as fast as Internet companies in implementation. Once they come to their senses and launch products, the new car company will face serious competitive pressure. "

In the eyes of the new car-making forces at that time, the opponents were all joint ventures in full bloom. Once these brands relying on Dashu have finished the last market dividend of fuel vehicles and started the full-speed new energy transformation, they will be extremely powerful, and the Armageddon of new energy vehicles will really begin.

Is that really the case? Now it is 2023, and this question has been answered.

On February 9th, GAC Toyota announced bZ4X's "Factory Direct Drop 30,000 Yuan Limited Time Purchase" activity, which instantly exploded the circle of friends. After this discount, the starting price of pure electric medium-sized SUV, which was originally 6.5438+0.998 million yuan, entered the range of 6.5438+0.6 million yuan.

Guangzhou Automobile Toyota launched the first shot of price reduction in the joint venture pure electricity market, and went its own way, which also pushed FAW Toyota to a desperate situation.

On the evening of February 16, the limited-time discount poster of FAW Toyota dealer bZ4X shocked the automobile circle. The poster clearly shows that FAW Toyota bZ4X offers a discount of 60,000 yuan, with preferential policies such as replacement subsidies and car purchase subsidies. FAW Toyota directly doubled the discount in Guangfeng, raising the starting price of bZ4X to139,800 yuan, and the top price was just over 220,000.

Then, Dongfeng Nissan couldn't sit still, and its first pure electric SUV, Aria ARIYA, also joined the price war. Under the superposition of government and enterprise subsidies, the whole department has a limited time discount of 60,000 yuan. The original price of this car was 285,400-342,800, and it instantly became 220,000.

Behind the collective bloodletting of Japanese brands is the dilemma of joint venture brands. In 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands is only 4.3%. This level, in terms of online buzzwords, is to play soy sauce. People didn't know who was swimming naked until the tide receded, but they couldn't guess who was swimming naked.

product

Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD Co., Ltd., who is in the limelight, also answered questions about the window period of making cars.

201August 19, Pan Shiyi, Chairman of SOHO China, interviewed Wang Chuanfu. In this pan talk, Wang Chuanfu said that the window period of new energy vehicles is getting shorter and shorter, and the road to new power is very difficult.

"The product cycle of a car is very long. It will take at least 4 years to develop a brand-new platform. There are almost 65,438+00,000 parts in the car. The mould for a door weighs 30 tons. Processing in the machining center takes 5-6 months. It will take another 5-6 months to change. The whole cycle is very long. "

Wang Chuanfu believes that there are few market opportunities, maybe at most once. If you don't grasp the product cycle and product window this time, you may die. Because the product cycle is very long, investors will not give you too much time to wait.

Coincidentally, in 2020, Li Xiang, CEO of Li, also said that it takes three years for any new technology enterprise to enter the field of smart cars, from team formation to market research, to project establishment, to formal research and development, to experiments, to production, to factory manufacturing and then to delivery, and it also takes three years to make a better product.

He also added that after such research and development time, the market verification of 1 year was added, and basically four years passed.

Perhaps for Xiaomi Automobile, the window period is a product. The progress bar of Xiaomi car conforms to Li Xiang's timetable. On March 30th, 20021year, Xiaomi officially announced that it would build a car. In the same year, the automobile factory started construction in Beijing Economic Development Zone.

In order to catch up with the lost time, Lei Jun once said that in 2022, the investment in new businesses such as Xiaomi Automobile will exceed 3 billion yuan, and the R&D team will exceed 2,300 people. The initial investment of Xiaomi Automobile is three times that of other automobile manufacturers.

In 2023, Xiaomi Automobile accelerated again. At the end of February, Xiaomi recruited more than 50 Xiaomi automobile positions in the global campus recruitment in the spring of 2023.

At the same time, Xiaomi Auto has also started open social recruitment and internal promotion to accelerate the recruitment of auto talents.

Judging from this recruitment position, the recruitment of Xiaomi Automobile involves not only research and development, but also production, sales, brand and other fields.

On September 8, 2022, Lei Jun, the founder of Xiaomi Group, who has spent half his time on cars, said on Twitter that Tesla entered the electric vehicle industry 10 years earlier than Xiaomi. "Some people think that we missed the opportunity to enter the [new energy vehicle] market, but I don't agree. The game has just begun, and I think Xiaomi has many opportunities. "

Lei Jun said this passage was in English, but "window" still accurately expressed the meaning of the window period. Xiaomi, who has caught up with the window period, is very confident, and the goal is to "strive to enter the top five in the world within 15 -20 years".

fund

2065438+April 2009, Li Xiang once said, "The remaining time of the financing window period of the new car-making forces will not exceed one year. Within a year, a large number of enterprises will be eliminated, and 90% investors will suffer heavy losses. Because several car companies that are ahead have not made any money, it will be more difficult to get funds later. "

Li Xiang said: the funding window is only one year, and we only have one chance to try and make mistakes. Looking at the current domestic new energy vehicle market, it is not only an ideal, but also all new car-making forces, including Weilai, Tucki and Weimar, are facing a huge challenge-the window period may be fleeting.

The ideal in the name of "digging a factory" first considers money. What happened later also proved that the capital winter is really coming.

According to media statistics, in 2022, there were more than 40 financing transactions of domestic auto companies in the field of new energy vehicles, with a total financing of more than 80 billion yuan. 202 1, * * 239 cases of financing, and the total amount of disclosed financing reached 363.9 billion yuan. In contrast, it can be seen that the enthusiasm of the primary market for investment in new energy vehicle tracks is rapidly fading.

More importantly, listing is getting harder and harder. On September 29th, 2022, Zero Run Auto was officially listed in Hong Kong, and the opening price on the first day of listing was HK$ 465,438+0 per share. This is the fourth new car-making force to land in Hong Kong stocks after Tucki, Ideality and Weilai.

Several families are happy and several families are sad. Weimar automobile must have been envious at that time. Since the establishment of 20 15, a total of 1 1 rounds of financing have been completed. In 2020, the largest single round of financing will be completed in the history of new car-making forces, and the financing scale announced by Weimar Automobile will reach 35 billion yuan, which is beyond doubt.

However, Weimar has hit a wall many times from seeking overseas listing at first, to applying for IPO of science and technology innovation board, and then submitting the form to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in May last year. Weimar, which failed to land, has been on the verge of collapse because of continuous financial pressure.

Recently, the bad news about Weimar has been one after another, and various rumors have emerged one after another, such as health, all employees leaving without pay and moving out of the headquarters without pay. More Weimar employees are asking for salaries online. It is accompanied by various problems such as dealers closing stores, parts cut off, and vehicle products.

For Weimar, the window period is listing financing, and the opportunity will be gone after that.

For Weimar now, there seems to be only one way, listing. If it can't go public for financing, Weimar can only borrow new debts to pay off old debts. In order to save himself, Weimar quickly launched a backdoor listing. In June, 5438+this year 10, Weimar reached an agreement with Apollo, a listed company in Hong Kong, to package Weimar into the listed company system by reverse acquisition, so as to save the country.

In an ideal way, Weimar obtained the "shell" of Apollo's trip and was qualified to issue shares in the capital market for financing. According to the Apollo Travel Announcement, it is planned to issue additional shares to no less than six targets, and the net fund raised is about HK$ 3.526 billion, of which about HK$ 700 million will be used to pay off Weimar's debts.

However, can money solve Weimar's problems?

Natural endowment

At the beginning of 2023, people were shocked that the new car window period might have been closed long ago.

20 18, founded Niu innovative energy, and on June 8, 2022, the first self-help tour NV appeared. No one expected that the self-help tour was released only 60 days after the high-profile release of the new car.

This article is from auto business review, written by Yi Chehao, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author for any form of reprint. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.