Will SF go bankrupt in the future? what do you think?

I have worked in SF for nine years, including 2.5 years as a courier, 0.5 years as a marketing specialist, 1 year, warehouse manager, supervisor, branch manager, sales person in charge, etc. I have personally experienced various positions in SF, from the first line, the second line and the third line!

In fact, SF is not just a courier!

SF Group, including SF Finance, SF Commercial, SF Cold Transportation, SF Warehouse Distribution (closed), SF Heavy Goods, SF International, SF Maintenance (Fengxiu, mainly repairing mobile phones), SF City (mainly delivering food, McDonald's, etc. ), SF Technology and so on!

Having said so many companies owned by SF, in fact, only express delivery is making money! Everyone else is losing money or making a small profit!

SF business, the most burning money! In recent years, many stores have been opened on the whole network, and each store has a manager named (hacker). At the beginning, the operation mode was only pictures, tablet computer web search products, and then orders were delivered! To put it bluntly, when consumers enter the store to watch pictures and videos and place orders, they are all sent by couriers! Customers go to the store to place orders? People's mobile phone Taobao orders in minutes, which is redundant!

In fact, with the establishment of so many companies, the functional departments of each company were established in an instant, and the office address and equipment were immediately bought by SF boss. Awesome! So how did the management leaders of functional departments come from? Some people are transferred from SF, and some are hired with high salaries! Then the administrators of all companies are in place. How to solve the problems of front-line salesmen and shop assistants? In fact, they are all couriers of SF Express!

As a courier in SF, you should learn to sell international products, help SF find old mobile phone repair business, deliver meals to SF in the same city, promote APP loans to SF Finance, sell food and drinks to SF business, and receive express delivery. Very tired!

In fact, many companies under SF Group are constantly changing. First, they rely on SF Express (Express) to grow and change! Disappear immediately before you grow up! Many small companies have disappeared, and some have independently transformed and slowly died! This is burning money!

The courier brother is very tired every day, and SF's corporate culture is very heavy. For the regular meeting that can't be finished every day, the courier should stand neatly, the administrator should preach, and then take photos to the superior leaders and report at different levels. In fact, when I arranged the task for the courier, I also knew that they could not finish it. How can they do so much business? It will drive people crazy!

But there is no way, that's what the company requires! The establishment of a company or department requires all employees to study and train. At 9 o'clock in the evening, it is time to train the courier! Everything has an indicator task. The leader said that sales were only voluntary. Tell the courier correctly that there is a commission for selling food and drinks! Sell if you can, and don't push if you can't! However, the leaders will rank and rank each branch and branch! Whenever someone sells it, it will be printed in the group! Mandatory indicators in disguise, selling moon cakes in Mid-Autumn Festival, selling zongzi in Dragon Boat Festival, selling apples at Christmas and so on! Most couriers buy them themselves, in order to complete a single business for each person!

The business grasping tools given by the company are: the branch breaks the zero first, the point breaks the zero, and the whole staff breaks the zero! Do it no matter what you do, no matter what the actual situation is! You have to do everything! For example, it is relatively easy to sell a fruit in the city. Do you want those relatively backward township couriers to sell fruits and sell safe fruits? Many rural people don't know what Christmas Eve is, and there are many fruit trees at home. How to sell them? The company doesn't care about this, people don't have a clear task, but rank me! There is pressure as soon as you rank. Who wants to be at the bottom?

The first line of SF Express is indeed a big loss. Basically, we recruit people every month. If you ask whether to recruit people, you are basically recruiting people!

It is not normal for an enterprise to have no personnel flow, and such a turnover rate is too abnormal!

SF Group started with express delivery and wanted to rely on express delivery to increase products in other fields. The mistake is that it is too eager to change the pace of revolution quickly! Enterprises will die if they don't change, and they will die if they become too fast!

It's not whether the express delivery will go bankrupt, but whether SF is playing with fire and setting itself on fire. Let me count the companies that have disappeared, such as SF warehouse distribution, supply chain, hacker (first-tier cities are still insisting, most of them have closed their stores), SF Finance, science and technology, international, city, express delivery and so on. Everyone is laying off employees, and they are laying off employees every day. ...

SF's concept, management mode, promotion mechanism and supervision are all very good, but it is not good for this group of executives to drive away the competent and promote the flattery. Seeing the outstanding colleagues around me leave, I wonder if I will do the same. I don't want to leave, the ladder of top leaders, bribery, crime, favoritism is too serious, if I don't interfere, it will be really fast. ...

If SF Express is not good, it will not be compensated. The adjuster is a professional hooligan and the ball pushing department, which is getting worse. It rained during transportation, which led to the direct scrapping of my electronic products. It has not been disposed of for half a month.

Whether SF will close down in the future, I think it mainly depends on two points.

First, will SF's business model be outdated and eliminated by the times?

That is to say, the express delivery industry where SF Express is located or the business express delivery field where SF Express is good at will not be eliminated by the times like newspapers killed by APP.

This is considered from the general direction, just like Xiang Yu, the overlord of the land of Xi Chu, who committed suicide on the Wujiang River and shouted, "Unless the war is unfavorable, God will forget me." It's not that I don't work hard, it's that God wants to destroy me.

At this point, I think it is better to analyze the business model than to look at what the foreign "Shunfeng" has experienced.

On July 9, 2065438, the American express company UPS ranked in the Fortune Global 500 138.

RPS is a courier service company, which operates in a dislocation with UPS in business and pricing. It has provided many discounts to business customers in densely populated areas (business is the main part, is it familiar).

In the 1980 s, RPS, which mainly focused on business pieces, stole UPS's high-profit business. Under the advantage of misplaced operation, UPS could not stop RPS because of its scale, and was once very passive.

Aside from our market, SF has occupied the high-end market of the express delivery industry. We are all making some hard money. Even if the four links reach a wide coverage, there is no way to take SF.

What needs to be said is that the final outcome of PRS (once the American version of SF Express) is not bankruptcy, but acquisition.

If PRS can develop independently, it will certainly give us more inspiration, but in the end it will be acquired rather than closed down, which also shows that this business model is successful and sustainable.

As long as there is no big change, it is unlikely that SF will be eliminated by the times.

The second is whether SF's own business will go wrong.

No matter how good the industry is, it can't stand the monkey tricks of management or bosses. Of course there will be more suspense and great uncertainty. It can only be observed from some clues, such as the poor service mentioned by the subject.

This is a problem. I've had problems in China myself. I have always felt that SF's service is very good in recent years, but there were obviously several poor service experiences last year.

This has little impact on SF, but in the long run, it will inevitably damage the foundation. Because the key to SF's business is efficiency and service, if they are missing, SF will be in big trouble.

Express delivery is a high-frequency service, and the brand advantages accumulated by efficient and high-quality services will not form a deep moat. For example, three bad service experiences may lose a loyal customer. According to the Law of 250 (1 person will affect 250 people), the impact is very far-reaching.

To sum up, the American version of SF was finally acquired, or it also shows that this way of focusing on efficiency and service has strong disadvantages.

Personally, I won't buy SF stock.

The future is very long, not to mention bankruptcy, but SF will not go bankrupt in a short time or in recent years.

Because among the logistics enterprises in China, SF 1993 was established in Guangdong, Shentong 1993 was established in Shanghai, and ZJS 1994 was established in Beijing, which is the earliest logistics company in China. At present, the status quo of logistics industry in China is that SF Express, JD.com Logistics and Cainiao.com are the three pillars. The service quality of SF Express is the best among the three, but the price is also the highest, followed by JD.com Logistics, which also opened personal express service, and then the rookie logistics alliance.

In the past two years, although SF has occupied the top spot in the field of logistics, other enterprises have begun to narrow the gap with it. From this year's double 1 1, it can be seen that the phenomenon of warehouse explosion, delivery delay and receiving delay has been significantly reduced, indicating that the quality of logistics services has been significantly improved, which is no longer the unique advantage of SF Express.

Jingdong Logistics itself is a self-built logistics in JD.COM. Now it is open to the outside world, and recently opened a personal business. Obviously, I want to share a piece of personal business, and Jingdong Logistics has a very good reputation and obviously occupies a great advantage in the competition.

Therefore, the pressure on SF will be great in the future. Although SF currently has a strong all-cargo team in aviation parts, if there is no difference in service with other enterprises, it is difficult to improve much in the future. At most, several companies have been born for a long time and maintained a relatively stable market share.

Re-election is very firm: Huawei will definitely go bankrupt! And Ma Yun only dares to have a small goal: to be a 102 enterprise. Can SF do better than them? We are not sure, but we are not sure whether SF can become a century-old enterprise.

The advantage of SF Express-Express, word of mouth may be the best.

From the perspective of a non-courier, SF's advantage is really high. We know that SF has always been a leader in the domestic express delivery industry. We can look at a data:

In this data, although SF's business volume is the least among the top five express delivery companies, its revenue is as high as 8.097 billion yuan, which is the highest revenue express delivery company at present.

However, it was established in Shunde, Guangdong on March 26th, 1993. On May 23rd, 20 16, SF was listed in Tai Ding New Materials, and its current market value is as high as1740.67 million yuan.

From this point of view, SF has obvious advantages, such as word of mouth, market value, awareness, express speed and so on.

Employees, belong to the bottom?

It may be the lowest-level courier, and the salary is not as high as you think. I posted a SF recruitment announcement:

From this, we can see that the salary of SF Express is not low, the five insurances are paid in full, the monthly salary is 5000+, and the calling card is free. All these tell us that although SF's salary is not high, it also gives us some enlightenment: SF's salary is not bad. Employees are well paid. At least I saw his growth track from my friend, and I can feel the advantages of SF from being a warehouse manager to being a branch manager now.

What will the future of SF be like? According to the philosophical theory, SF will indeed go out of business, which is in line with the law of development of things. However, the future of SF depends on the development of future technology. If the express delivery business does not exist, or a new express delivery business emerges, the new express delivery method will bring pressure to SF, which may be the reason why SF has been investing in many projects and enterprises! Change-innovation-stability in the future.

SF will not go bankrupt, but it may become a small and beautiful courier company.

SF ranked first among domestic listed express delivery companies, with a market value of 654.38+065.4 billion, a revenue of 765.438+07 billion and a profit of 4.7 billion. Three indicators are higher than four links and one reach, namely Shentong Express, YTO Express, ZTO Express, Baishi Express and Dayun Express.

SF is famous for its speed and safety, and its user experience is extremely high. It has 57 cargo planes, with 1.776 routes, 21.3000 personnel and 30000 vehicles.

SF's business is mainly limited-time express delivery of business letters, accounting for about 70% of the business volume. Others include economic express delivery, newly developed heavy cargo transportation, cold chain logistics, international express delivery, and city business.

However, SF's long-term development has several disadvantages:

1, the growth rate of business letters, the main business of SF Express, declined, and it faced competition from rivals such as JD.COM.

SF Express is mainly a business letter. Due to the electronization of information, the growth rate of this part of business has declined, and the growth rate in 2065,438+07 was only 65,438+07%. In the same period, the growth rate of e-commerce express delivery of other express delivery companies was above 30%.

The unit price of business letters is high, and the average price reaches 22 yuan, which is twice that of e-commerce accessories. Under high profits, competitors have been peeping. As JD.COM, which has the same high user experience as SF Express, has opened up personal express delivery and cut into this market.

2, the proportion of e-commerce parts in express delivery is increasing, and SF is not an effective traffic entrance.

Does everyone's company have two streams of people every day, one is to receive and deliver business parts at SF Express, and the other is for colleagues to go downstairs to get business parts from JD.COM or Sitong Yida.

At present, the proportion of e-commerce parts is increasing, and the proportion of express e-commerce parts will reach 8 1% in 20 19. When the timeliness and safety of JD.COM or Sitong Yida are recognized, the user will deliver the business documents directly to JD.COM or Sitong Yida, and there is no need to deliver them to the door.

In this competition of traffic entrance, it is difficult for SF to win JD.COM or four links and one reach. After all, e-commerce accessories have become the norm, while the demand for business accessories is decreasing and it is easier to be replaced.

3. The cost of SF Express is too high to effectively integrate social resources, and it lacks a platform for users' supply and demand.

In 2065438+2007, SF's profit was 6%, which was lower than that of Sitong Yida. This shows that the four links and one access have the scale effect of e-commerce, so the marginal cost is low and the franchise system is relatively efficient to some extent.

Without high profits, it is difficult for SF to deepen the moat.

Compared with the rookie logistics in JD.COM and Alibaba, SF Express has no e-commerce platform, so it cannot perceive the relationship between supply and demand of social goods, unify information flow, capital flow, business flow and logistics, and it is difficult to build a more efficient "peer-to-peer" logistics network.

4. The development of new business of SF Express is not easy.

SF's four new businesses, heavy goods are a red sea market, and it is difficult to make money. The cold chain is dominated by seafood products, controlled by Alibaba and JD.COM, and goes hand in hand online and offline. International business has long been dominated by logistics giants, while express delivery in the same city, I am more optimistic about high-frequency Didi and Meituan.

Therefore, the development of SF will encounter challenges, but I am optimistic about SF's corporate culture, so I think it will become a small and beautiful courier company.

On the surface, it looks like Dashunfeng Company, but listed companies are not. SF Shanghai is even worse in the same city, and it is outsourced layer by layer! Change the salary plan frequently, forcibly cancel the guaranteed salary, cancel the room supplement and cancel the meal supplement! As a result, a large number of first-line distributors left their jobs, and thousands of people left their jobs to provide remote insurance for employees! Internal management is chaotic, and there is no way to complain!

Judging from the current development momentum of express delivery, I don't think SF will close down in a short time.

As a leader in the industry, SF Express is a model in terms of personnel service, business level and delivery speed. As long as it is not liquid, the air cargo will arrive in two days at the latest, or the next day if it is closer. This speed is far beyond the reach of other express delivery except the local warehouse in JD.COM.

Judging from the equipment, the sender of SF Express is the earliest electronic equipment I have ever seen. It is very handy to solve the delivery problem directly with a mobile phone without filling out the express bill or computer operation, and other couriers have followed suit.

The service quality of personnel, SF's distributors and shippers are all dressed neatly. Wearing badges, including service attitude, makes people feel neat and comfortable. Other couriers are uneven and there is a great chance of being complained.

The only drawback, but acceptable, is that the cost is slightly higher. However, for the society that requires speed and quality now, the high price naturally has high reasons and can be accepted by the public.

If the current development momentum continues, SF will get better and better and will never be eliminated by other express delivery. The only thing that needs to be optimized now is that if the price can be more civilian, it will definitely kill other express delivery. Officially, guerrillas can't compete with regular troops, and their weapons and equipment are different. SF is also a conscientious enterprise, otherwise it is easy to monopolize by virtue of its strength.

Reasonable competitive strength and competitors can ensure SF's continuous progress and maintain its vitality, and wish SF better and better.

A few years ago, my colleagues and I had an argument on this issue.

I am optimistic about SF, my colleagues are optimistic about four links and one access, and I am not optimistic about EMS；;

But today, everyone has seen that in the face of strong demand growth, both paths have fully grown, and there is no need to force their respective markets. As for the quality of growth, if there is any difference, we will not evaluate it.

What will happen in the future, just like my signature, just look on coldly,

Why did SF close down? SF was founded in 1993, but it has only been 25 years. The company is in the prime of life, and the traditional industry has been stretching for dozens of hundreds of years. SF has a long life.

Moreover, the times are always moving forward. The express delivery industry has developed for decades, and there are still many places to be improved. Eighteen-tier cities still have room for sinking and upgrading, and there is room for upgrading express delivery and service. There is still hope for everything. Shunfeng has not reached its peak yet, and bankruptcy is still far away.

Moreover, the top ten shareholders of SF are strong. Look at the list of SF shareholders. Can these shareholders sit back and watch SF go bankrupt?

If nothing else, in the field of express delivery, SF's position is outstanding, and other peers are at least put aside by SF. No one in the same trade can match Shun Feng. With the rapid development of SF, e-commerce giants have realized the importance of logistics and started to do it themselves. JD.COM set up his own warehouse, and Ali introduced the rookie. However, the two e-commerce businesses are very big, and they are still not as single-minded and professional as SF Express in terms of logistics.

SF bought planes directly, built routes, and served 47 all-cargo planes. In the next three years, SF's self-organized fleet is expected to reach 80 vehicles. SF's semi-annual report shows that by the end of the 20 18 semi-annual report, SF Holdings had 1977 routes covering 34 countries and regions such as Chinese mainland, Hongkong, Taiwan Province Province and overseas.

The long-standing fresh cold chain is not a problem in SF. The most exciting thing about online shopping, besides Ma Dad helping you empty your shopping cart, is SF Express.

Express delivery is just a representation. The moat of SF is deep enough. Aircraft, airlines, cold chain and big data constitute the core competitiveness of SF. Ali and JD.COM dare not say that they are better than SF in logistics.

SF's high-speed rail operation line is also developing steadily, and SF has also laid out its shipping business early to explore the international market along the Belt and Road. SF is getting stronger and stronger.