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What technology is promising in the future?
First, cloud computing
It is the general trend for enterprises to migrate to the cloud. You can see:
1) The growth of public and private cloud markets is still going hand in hand, not a zero-sum game;
2)IaaS level: It is more and more important to have diversified business application ecosystems, such as Amazon, Google and Microsoft.
3)SaaS level: mainly concentrated in human resources, OA, CRM, marketing, B2B commodity procurement and other fields, such as SalesForce, Sap, Oracle and so on.
4)PaaS level: Without independent giants, it is more likely that IaaS giants will extend upwards or SaaS giants will extend downwards in the future.
The domestic cloud computing market is still in its infancy, and the market cake is more and more attractive. We predict:
1) Although IT giants such as Ali, Tencent and Huawei have entered one after another, the complexity of China's enterprise market still makes opportunities at the IaaS level;
2)SaaS level: In addition to paying attention to the above market segments, we should also focus on analyzing whether specific products and services meet the actual market demand of domestic customers.
Second, big data.
The total financing of big data industry in 20 13-20 15 years was 800 million dollars,15.4 billion dollars and 2 billion dollars respectively; The financing events of 20 13-20 15 were 10, 42 and 50 respectively. "Big Data+"has penetrated into almost all industries, such as "Big Data+Retail" represented by Alibaba, "Big Data+Medical Care" represented by Lilac Garden, and "Big Data+Real Estate" represented by SouFun. Our investment strategy in this field is:
1) For resource-based big data companies: the data resources are large and complete enough, the data value is imaginative enough, and the data mining integration ability is strong enough;
2) For technical big data companies: the technical threshold is high enough for the company to quickly form scale effect and network effect, so as to quickly occupy enough market share;
3) For applied big data companies: the application market is large enough, the company has good growth and strong liquidity.
Third, virtual reality.
We believe that the virtual reality industry is already on the eve of the outbreak. From the simple logic point of view, people can no longer be satisfied with the services of 2D images and 3D images. In fact, virtual reality is to create a panoramic environment with the help of computer system and sensor technology, so that users can mobilize all their senses to generate human-computer interaction in this brand-new environment, bringing users a perfect sense of immersion, and users can also use their unlimited imagination to create in this environment.
At present, the global virtual reality industry is still in the early stage after nearly a hundred years of development, and the supply chain and various supporting facilities are still being explored. But the development prospect of virtual reality is imaginative, and it has a wide range of application space, such as games, movies, education, sports, advertising, medical care and so on. At present, major consulting organizations are optimistic that virtual reality will achieve ultra-high-speed growth in the next five years, and the outbreak is close at hand. We believe that:
1) In a short time, manufacturers who can lay out the virtual reality industry chain have investment value from hardware equipment, content production to platform distribution;
2) In the long run, the content of virtual reality will be the soul of the industry, and the investment in mature content industry manufacturers will be full of opportunities.
Fourth, artificial intelligence.
According to Tractica's forecast, the market scale of artificial intelligence will grow to 1 1 1 billion dollars in 2024. The initial technology accumulation and data accumulation have produced significant scale effect in the past, so the wave of artificial intelligence reshaping all walks of life is about to strike, and will trigger a new round of it equipment investment.
In the next 3-5 years, the wave of intelligence will bring trillions of markets. In the field of artificial intelligence, our main concerns in 20 16 include:
1) computer vision recognition (a typical face recognition);
2) Computer adaptation (taking all kinds of robots as examples);
3) Subdivide the underlying technical fields (such as natural language processing, machine learning and knowledge mapping).
Verb (abbreviation of verb) 3D technology
After the investment boom of 3D printing in previous years, 3D printing technology has entered a new stage, but the application market still needs to be broken. Experts predict that in 20 16 years, the market size of China 3D printers will be expanded to 10 billion yuan; At the same time, the Waller report shows that the global market scale in 20 16 can reach 7 billion US dollars. If the application market can be opened, it may exceed 1000 billion yuan or even reach 200 billion yuan by 2020. Taking the medical industry as an example, it is estimated that the market scale will reach1900 million USD by 20 15 years.
Next, the new round of investment hotspots of 3D technology include:
1)3D printing special material and its technology;
2) 3D modeling and customized design software;
3) Innovative enterprises around the industry model of 3D printing technology (that is, the combination of 3D printing with education, medical care and industry 4.0).
Sixth, driverless technology.
Driverless technology is currently mainly used in the field of drones and driverless cars. Theil Group of the United States predicts that the global UAV market will grow from $6.4 billion in 20 15 to $0.5 billion in 2024, with a rapid development trend. Driverless cars have not yet appeared, but McKinsey predicts that by 2025, there will be an output value of $200 billion to $65,438 +0.9 trillion in this field. By then, the output value of driverless cars in China will be at least one trillion yuan, with unlimited potential.
In this field, we have laid out Yiwate, the first brand of industrial drones, and will continue to pay attention to the following goals for a long time:
1) With the gradual liberalization of policies, giants such as Baidu, Google, BMW and Audi have stepped up the layout of driverless cars. We focus on leading enterprises in various fields such as automotive electronics related hardware, vehicle networking related software, and complete vehicles;
2) In the field of UAV, focus on the subdivision of parts manufacturing and overall design among UAV solution providers and high-quality enterprises with great potential.
Seven, robots
China's aging population is increasingly prominent, labor costs have risen sharply, and the overall economic structure is facing transformation. The future rise of robots and its huge market scale have been recognized by major institutions. We believe that there will be huge investment opportunities in the robot industry in both short-term and long-term, and there will be considerable market scale from industrial robots, cooperative robots to service robots:
1) The future industrial robots will have strong self-learning ability and specialization ability, and will innovate and extend to more subdivided fields and structures;
2) Cooperative robots can cooperate with people and are widely used in all fields of life, which is the product of "cross-border";
3) There is no upper limit for service robots, and they have market scale potential far exceeding that of industrial robots and cooperative robots. We believe that service robots used to help the elderly and medical care will lead the development.
Eight. new energy
China is the largest new energy market. Developing new energy industry is an inevitable choice to change China's energy structure, reduce dependence on fossil energy and reduce environmental pollution. Huge financial subsidies promote the rapid maturity of the new energy industry and contain rich investment opportunities;
1) lithium batteries have formed a complete industrial chain in China, and the demand for downstream power and energy storage batteries is huge;
2) In 2065438+05, China's new energy vehicle market developed by spurt, with production and sales exceeding 300,000 vehicles, increasing by more than 300% year-on-year, becoming the largest new energy vehicle market in the world;
3) Compared with lithium batteries, supercapacitors have obvious advantages in fast charge and discharge, long cycle life and high power density, and can be widely used in urban public transport, rail transit, wind power generation, oil drilling, port machinery and other fields.
Nine, new materials
New materials are the cornerstone of the new economy, and the rapid development of China's military industry, high-speed rail, nuclear power, aerospace and other cutting-edge manufacturing fields cannot be separated from the breakthrough in the field of basic materials. With the continuous accumulation of scientific research strength of basic chemistry, basic materials and nanotechnology, innovations in the field of new materials will continue to emerge, and new materials will become a market with a trillion-dollar output value:
1) Compared with existing materials, graphene has obvious advantages in flexibility, mechanics, optics, electricity and quantum properties, and its future application industries will span electronics, biomedicine, military industry, precision manufacturing and chemical industry.
2) Carbon fiber is a new material with relatively mature application. Compared with traditional materials, it has good quality and light weight. In the future, efforts should be made to reduce costs and break through foreign technology blockade;
3) New membrane materials can be widely used in water treatment, waste gas treatment, lithium batteries and other fields;
4) Bio-based materials, used in dentistry and orthopedics, can replace and repair the functions of human tissues and organs.
X. Medical services
The driving factors of 20 16 in medical service industry come from the continuous decline of the prosperity of pharmaceutical industry and the change of drug price formation mechanism. Driven by graded diagnosis and treatment and doctors' multi-point practice, public hospitals use private capital to revitalize existing assets and create incremental prices. Medical service business provides commercial export of new technologies, and new technologies provide high value-added projects for medical service business. Our investment logic is:
1) Medical-based business models that are in line with the interests of hospitals, such as rehabilitation medicine, inspection field and high-end medical imaging field;
2) Chain specialized hospitals with certain thresholds, such as women and children, assisted reproduction, ophthalmology, orthopedics, medical beauty, etc.
3) Chain third-party services such as health management and third-party diagnosis;
4) High-end hospitals with core technologies and expert resources in first-tier cities.
XI。 Life technology and life science
With the development of genomics, molecular biology and other basic disciplines, biological agents and life science and technology are playing an increasingly important role in treatment: in biological agents, more and more monoclonal antibodies have a breakthrough effect on intractable diseases such as tumors and diabetes, and "blockbuster" new drugs are frequent. Among the top ten drugs sold in the world in 20 14, seven were biological agents, among which adalimumab ranked first in the world, with annual sales reaching 1 10 billion US dollars; In life sciences, the global gene sequencing market has increased from 794 1 10,000 USD in 2007 to 4.5 billion USD in 200013, with a compound growth rate of 33.5%, which is expected to maintain rapid growth in the next few years. Emerging technologies such as cellular immunotherapy are increasingly becoming important treatment methods.
Based on the above background, we believe that biotechnology and life sciences are undoubtedly extremely important investment directions in the field of big health, and the key sub-fields include:
1) Advanced Gene Sequencing and Data Analysis Company;
2) Technology-driven biological agent companies;
3) Precision medical companies that combine gene sequencing interpretation and individualized drug delivery;
4) New biotherapeutics with technological breakthroughs, such as CAR-T cell immunotherapy.
Twelve, medical devices
The medical device market started late in China, but developed rapidly. From 200 1 to 20 14, the medical device market in China increased from 173 billion yuan to 255.6 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 15 times and a compound growth rate of 23%. However, from the scale comparison between the medical device market and the pharmaceutical market, the global medical device market is roughly 40% of the global pharmaceutical market, while the proportion in China is less than 15%. With the development of economy and the improvement of domestic aging, the medical device market has great development potential. At the same time, the promulgation of a number of policies such as "Special Approval Procedures for Innovative Medical Devices (Trial)" has laid a solid foundation for the rapid growth of innovative medical devices in China. Focus on the following sub-areas:
1) high-end medical devices combining advanced technologies such as robots and artificial intelligence;
2) Domestic innovative medical devices;
3) Intelligent home medical equipment;
4) Imported substitute products of existing mature medical devices.
Thirteen. Internet Medical
The rapid development of information technology has triggered great changes in various industries and brought great opportunities to the medical industry. With the cross-border integration of big data, cloud computing, Internet of Things and other multi-domain technologies and the Internet, new technologies and new business models have rapidly penetrated into various medical segments, and the intelligent era will be fully opened from prevention, diagnosis, treatment and drug purchase. At the same time, the unique problems of China medical industry, such as unreasonable resource allocation, low service quality and tense doctor-patient relationship, all depend on the improvement of Internet technology.
At the same time, we should also see that Internet medical care is still in its infancy in China, and the reform of traditional medical care is bound to be a long and arduous process. Therefore, we believe that investment in this field should be optimistic but cautious. Focus on the following sub-areas:
1) medical e-commerce platform;
2) Medical Big Data Analysis Company;
3) Online platform for chronic disease management/health management;
4) Smart wearable medical equipment.
Fourteen Healthy pension
Driven by urgent demand and policy encouragement, the healthy pension industry will usher in a very certain development opportunity. In the future, both the Chinese government and individuals will face enormous pressure of providing for the aged. By 20 14, the number of elderly people aged 65 and above will reach1400,000, accounting for10/0% of the total population, and the number of elderly people will increase to 260 million by 2020. At the same time, providing for the aged, as a part of "healthy China", has been promoted to the national strategic level. We will explore investment opportunities along the multi-level pension service system proposed by the state, which is based on families, supported by communities and supplemented by institutions:
1) Enterprises that are involved in the core industry of providing for the aged-rehabilitation medical care, and have a development model with feasibility and chain potential;
2) Enterprises actively explore innovative pension modes.
Fifteen. sports
In the past year, domestic giants began to target the assets of overseas high-quality sports targets (especially the rights to broadcast events and sports operating companies), and gradually moved closer to the mature sports profit model-tickets, media broadcasting rights, sponsorship and sports derivatives, such as LeTV's purchase of exclusive broadcasting rights for Hong Kong Super League and MLB for three seasons; Wanda acquired Infront Sports Media and World Triathlon Company (WTC) to become Wanda Sports; Ali Sports won the right to broadcast the NFL in Chinese mainland and so on. Therefore, sports industry targets with high-quality event resources and a wide audience will continue to be sought after by capital.
As the earliest and most widely distributed sports industry investment institution in China, Li Xinzhong will continue to pay attention to the following areas:
1) Operating companies with high-quality sports event IP in all segments of sports;
2) The e-sports industry that impacts traditional sports, including content and live broadcast platform;
3) Sports-related intelligent hardware+data analysis software+startups that can be diverted to the health care field;
4) Internet fitness upstream and downstream companies focusing on mass fitness.
Sixteen, entertainment
China 20 15 is a year in which the investment circle and BAT made great efforts in the field of culture and entertainment. The consumption upgrade makes China people's consumption habits gradually tilt towards culture and entertainment, and the consumption crowd and consumption amount are getting younger and younger. 20 15 is also a hot year for independent IP, with a wave of TV dramas such as Spending Money Hub, Nirvana in Fire, Tomb Raider Notes, etc. Goodbye Mr. Loser, Monster Hunter, Embarrassing Series, Ghost Blowing Lights, etc. constantly set new domestic box office records. In addition, with the rise of the secondary culture derived from games and animation, the explosion of digital, fragmented and entertaining content from the media will gather a large number of new generation of young users and trigger new business models and opportunities. We will focus on the following parts:
1) companies with high-quality IP content (production or purchase) and strong IP operation capabilities;
2) Self-media and new media with massive users and profitability;
3) Big data analysis companies in the cultural and entertainment industry;
4) Secondary content aggregation community;
5) Pan-entertainment live broadcast platform, etc.
Seventeen. education
The domestic private education market scale exceeds 600 billion yuan, and one-fifth of the online education market share has attracted countless capitals and entrepreneurs. After nearly one or two years of baptism, education O2O (online to offline) has been struggling, not only failing to completely change the life of traditional education, but also being at a loss in exploring profit models. Traditional offline education and training institutions not only have stable offline resources and teachers, but also have made many reforms in line with the development of the times under the offensive of internet plus. In addition, the new round of college entrance examination reform will also bring new business models and entrepreneurial opportunities. The education industry is still a gold mine for investment institutions, but we focus on the following areas:
1) High-quality quality education and exam-oriented education offline training institutions are born in line with the college entrance examination reform;
2) Vocational education and training institutions and professional experience sharing platforms;
3) (cost-effective) A virtual reality technology company (hardware+software+content) that can help students improve their classroom experience;
4) High-quality IP content producers focusing on children's education.
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