Anqing Heng: It is imperative to integrate and reorganize the automobile market! How do car companies hold a group to keep warm?

On May 1 day, Anqing Heng, director of China Automobile Industry Advisory Committee, issued a document "It is imperative to integrate and reorganize the automobile industry", saying that it is imperative to integrate and reorganize the automobile industry in China, which is the best way to get rid of the stubborn problems in China automobile market and promote industrial development. A stone stirred up a thousand waves, and Anqing Heng's article brought the topic of auto market restructuring back to the center of public opinion.

20 16 is the first year of mixed ownership reform of state-owned enterprises. Electric power, petroleum and petrochemical, telecommunications, aviation, military industry and automobiles are the key points of this round of mixed reform of state-owned enterprises. Up to now, mixed reforms have been completed in many fields such as steel and medicine. However, due to the late start of China automobile industry and complex industrial chain, the process of mixed reform is relatively slow.

It was not until 20 17 that the news about the reorganization of FAW, Dongfeng and Changan was released that the outside world began to discuss the reorganization of automobile enterprises on a large scale. At that time, both sides held their own words. Looking back now, the reorganization of car companies is the general trend, and there is no room for manoeuvre.

Oversupply, waste of resources, industrial transformation ... the reorganization of the automobile market is unstoppable.

No matter a country, industry or company, it follows the logic of "development, expansion, integration and stability". From the perspective of waste of production capacity and industrial transformation, China automobile industry is currently in the third integration stage.

According to the announcement in the Catalogue of Automobile Manufacturers of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, by the end of 20 19, there were 128 domestic automobile enterprises with passenger car production qualification, but only 15 enterprises with capacity utilization rate above 80%, and 36 enterprises had no sales in 20 19. The total production capacity of this 128 enterprise is 39.905 million vehicles. In the next 1 ~ 2 years, there are still 9.06 million vehicles under construction, and 3.84 million vehicles with new production qualifications are planned to produce.

Some experts estimate that the total annual production capacity of automobiles built and under construction in China has reached 63.58 million. In sharp contrast to the huge capacity data, it is extremely asymmetric sales data. In 20 19, the domestic passenger car sales volume was 2 1 10,000, and the peak sales volume in 20 17 was only 28 million. Even though people in the industry have been advocating the calculation of thousands of people, the annual absorption of domestic cars is only 40 million, which is far from 63 million.

The situation presented by the market is more obvious. Car companies with property and no market can only be forced to sell themselves. For example, Cheetah, which started as an SUV, currently has four vehicle manufacturing bases, namely Yongzhou Company, Chuzhou Company, Changsha Company and Jingmen Company, with an annual output of 500,000 pickup trucks and SUVs. And its sales volume in 20 19 years is only about 30 thousand. Most of the production capacity is basically vacant. Even under the multiple measures of layoffs, salary cuts and production cuts, it is still unsustainable. Under the leadership of the local government, its factory was forced to be taken over by Geely Automobile.

In addition, among independent brands, Zotye Automobile, Haima Automobile, Lifan Automobile, Beiqi Yinxiang Automobile, Sotheby's Automobile and Huatai Automobile are seriously out of balance in production and sales, resulting in a waste of resources.

In addition to the insufficient utilization of production capacity, the replacement of old and new industries and technological development, it is also a key factor that forces the reform and restructuring of car companies.

At the industrial level, due to consumption upgrading and manufacturing upgrading, car companies are transforming into smart factories, but there are only a handful of domestic enterprises that can meet this standard. Even the head enterprises of independent brands such as Great Wall and Geely, only some factories such as Baoding and Zhangjiakou can meet international standards. Most independent brands are still in a state of aging equipment and loose management. Can not meet the rapidly expanding consumer demand.

After 20 15, China automobile industry began to show the general trend of intelligence, electrification, networking and automation. Various industries are integrated with each other. Intelligent technology companies such as Huawei, Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi, which seem to have nothing to do with automobiles, have also gradually penetrated into the automobile industry. However, Zotye, Lifan, Cheetah and other enterprises with lack of funds and average strength cannot absorb resources from all sides and can only be gradually eliminated by the market.

China automobile industry is in the stage of polarization. On the one hand, the Great Wall is striving to advance into the hinterland of Europe, where the global automobile industry is the most developed. On the other hand, Zotye has not got rid of the most basic problem of cottage survival.

The most obvious example will be Tesla's entry into China. A model 3 will blow back the bubble that has been blown for many years in the domestic new energy market. Although Tesla's various "shopkeepers bully customers", it is still difficult to stop consumers from flocking. In the final analysis, domestic new energy products cannot meet the needs of consumers.

All these indicate that it is imperative to integrate the resources of China automobile industry.

Finally eliminated, holding a group to keep warm, Matthew effect ... the trend of automobile market integration is gradually emerging.

From the whole industry, the trend of industrial integration is still very obvious.

The most obvious thing in the market is the final elimination. Several typical cases. 20 18 Japanese Suzuki Motor withdrew from the China market; In 20 19, changan automobile transferred the equity of changan Peugeot Citroen, and changan Peugeot Citroen existed in name only; On April 14, 2020, Renault transferred 50% equity of Dongfeng Renault to Dongfeng Group, and Dongfeng Renault became history. At this stage, some legal and Korean car companies are still in a difficult situation, and restructuring is imminent. The sudden epidemic this year has added a touch of frost to the auto market.

Holding a group to keep warm is another manifestation of asset restructuring. Since 20 18, Changan New Energy, Beiqi New Energy, FAW Car and other car companies have completed restructuring by introducing new capital; Aichi Automobile, Jiangling Group and Changan Automobile completed the mixed reform of Jiangling Holdings; The strategic structure adjustment of automobile enterprises has been accelerating since Reading entered Mustang. Changan Automobile signed a strategic contract with Sander New Energy to create a new sales model of new energy vehicles; Xpeng Automobile and Baiteng Automobile established Qingyan Huake New Energy Research Institute (Nanjing) Co., Ltd. to explore the key technologies of new energy, and the collaborative optimization model of industry resources has emerged continuously. The uncertainty of the future allows car companies to warm up and share risks.

Of course, in this era, the integration of the automobile market has also triggered a stronger Matthew effect.

If Geely takes over the cheetah factory, it will further expand its market advantage. The growth of Japanese enterprises against the trend is also a typical case. Even during the epidemic, Japanese companies showed great resistance. According to the statistics of 20 19 of the Federation, under the downward trend of both SUVs and cars, Japanese enterprises have achieved 4.5% and 3.5% growth respectively, and their market share has been further improved.

There are indications that the integration of industrial resources is accelerating.

There are thousands of ways to integrate: since the small enterprise market has been eliminated, large enterprises still need to balance the interests of all parties.

Although the integration of industrial resources is the general trend, different enterprises have different integration methods. Small enterprises follow the process of market self-optimization. Similar to Geely Automobile taking over the Cheetah factory is the result of market self-screening, and this situation will be more and more. From another point of view, the behavior of new car-making forces to obtain production qualifications by acquiring car companies that have no sales ability is essentially resource integration. For example, Weimar's acquisition of Huanghai Automobile and the combination of ideal and Lifan, Weilai and Jianghuai are all redistribution of resources.

The integration of state-owned enterprises, such as Dongfeng, FAW and Chang 'an, which involve huge areas and complex interests, needs to be considered.

First of all, at the enterprise's own level, integration needs to weigh the strength of all parties in the car enterprise. FAW is headquartered in Changchun, Dongfeng is headquartered in Wuhan, and Changan is headquartered in Chongqing. All three have their own joint ventures and their own brands. Once combined, it involves a wide range and is as difficult as heart bypass surgery. Previously, the three companies cooperated in forward-looking technology and established T3 Logistics Company. Every step has been explored and explored to find the best solution.

The local government level where the enterprise is located is also a key point to be considered.

Here is a case of Chery Holdings for reference. In 20 19, the mixed reform of Chery fell to the ground, and Qingdao Wudaokou became the largest shareholder of Chery Holdings and Chery Co., Ltd. On the surface, it was a normal drama for Chery to introduce social capital and revitalize its enterprises.

Behind it is the game between governments. Chery is the axis of Wuhu automobile industry chain, and it is also a big taxpayer of local enterprises. Wuhu government has been reluctant to let go of Chery's status as a major shareholder. However, under the pressure of Chery's huge debt and market situation, Wuhu government had to adapt to the current situation and let Qingdao Wudaokou "take advantage of the situation". Even so, Wuhu government still has a veto power despite its diluted shares. Chery's core industrial chain is still in Wuhu, but it needs to open up a second battlefield in Qingdao.

The Qingdao government vigorously promoted this matter and naturally thought about it. According to the agreement, Chery will set up an automobile factory in Jimo District of Qingdao in the future, focusing on the development of new energy and driving the development of upstream and downstream enterprises in Qingdao's automobile industry chain. The new energy automobile industry is a key industry in Qingdao.

Nowadays, FAW, Dongfeng and Changan, which have larger and more complex industrial organizations, are all facing the same problem. They are all pillar enterprises in various regions. How to balance the interests of all parties is a process that needs constant running-in, otherwise it is difficult for state-owned enterprises to integrate reforms.

In any case, industrial integration is irreversible. It will also push China's automobile industry from strong to strong. But change must have sacrifices. Are those car brands that have been in the comfort zone really ready?

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.