Can Guanghui Energy be held for a long time?

Guanghui Energy can be held for a long time.

Xinjiang Guanghui New Energy Co., Ltd. was incorporated in Yiwu county, Hami region in September 2006, with an initial registered capital of 1 1 billion yuan, and the registered capital of the enterprise will eventually reach 3 billion yuan. In Naomaohu Town, Yiwu County, Hami City, an annual output of 654.38+380,000 tons of methanol/840,000 tons of dimethyl ether and 550 million cubic meters of coal-based liquefied natural gas was invested. The company plans to invest 60 billion yuan to 65 billion yuan in four phases to build a coal chemical and coal-based natural gas production base with an annual output of 4.38 million tons of methanol/2.69 million tons of dimethyl ether and 8 billion cubic meters of coal-based natural gas in 10 (2007-20 17), and become a large-scale coal chemical and coal-based natural gas industrial base in Xinjiang and even the whole country. As the first methanol/dimethyl ether project in the autonomous region, the project was listed as a national coal chemical demonstration project by the National Development and Reform Commission.

If Guanghui Energy (SH600256) really wants to hold Guanghui Energy for a long time, it needs to keep an eye on the prices of related products of several major projects of Guanghui Energy, not crude oil. Guanghui's business is too complicated, and crude oil is a double-edged sword for Guanghui, which has both negative and positive effects:

1. The domestic LNG sales price, regardless of off-season, is as high as possible. Generally, the peak season is more than 5000 yuan, and the off-season is 3000 yuan. The higher the price, the higher the gross profit of imported gas and self-produced gas of Guanghui.

2.CIF China is in Northeast Asia, which can be understood as that the import cost of LNG in Guanghui Qidong is less than 2,000 yuan a ton when it is low, and more than 4,000 yuan a ton when it is high. For Guanghui, the lower the better, but the import price is loosely related to crude oil. Generally speaking, high crude oil will not be cheap, but crude oil is only one factor, as well as the supply and demand structure in Northeast Asia. Supply exceeds demand, it will fall, and supply exceeds demand, it will rise. Guanghui imports about 25 tons of LNG every month, and the fluctuation of 1 month 100 yuan will affect tens of millions of profits.

3. Domestic methanol price trend, this product is also a variety related to the weak international crude oil price. The higher the international crude oil price, the higher the price of this product is, but it is not so closely watched. The key is the domestic supply and demand structure, which will be maintained at 2000-3000 yuan tons most of the time. For Guanghui, the monthly sales price of 65438+ 10,000 tons of methanol is mostly between 1000- 1800, and the profit is just a little bit. Anyway, if you don't fight, 100, 1 month will affect1000000 profit.

The higher the coal price, the better. Although Guanghui's coal is mainly sold around Xinjiang, the sales price is actually very low, which seems to be more than 300 tons. Fortunately, the mining cost is also low. At the same time, selling 20 million tons of coal a year, one ton 10 yuan, will affect the gross profit of 20 million a month, which is not small.

5. Other coal chemical by-products, such as coal tar, sulfur chemicals and railways, are not the same thing for the time being, and have little impact on the whole performance. .