What are the factors that affect the price of crude oil?

From a long-term and macro perspective, the fluctuation of crude oil price reflects the change of market supply and demand. However, from a short-term and microscopic point of view, the fluctuation of crude oil price often deviates from the long-term equilibrium price of gold.

Most gold investors, once they enter the gold market, are unlikely to stick to the long-term concept of the gold market trend and wait and see the market changes like a rock in the face of daily gold price fluctuations. More importantly, they need to profit from repeated ups and downs. Therefore, investors in the gold market are required to focus on the short-term factors that cause fluctuations in the gold market on the premise of taking the long-term trend of the gold market as a reference. Usually, the short-term factors that affect the fluctuation of the gold market can be divided into three aspects: politics, economy and psychology.

1, supply factor

Supply factors mainly include:

At present, the global surface gold reserve is about137,400 tons, and the surface gold reserve is still growing at a rate of about 2% per year.

Annual supply and demand The annual supply and demand of gold is about 4,200 tons, and the newly produced gold accounts for 62% of the annual supply.

New gold mining costs The average total cost of gold mining is slightly lower than $260 per ounce. Due to the development of mining technology, the cost of gold development has been declining in the past 20 years.

Political, military and economic changes in gold-producing countries, these countries have no political and military turmoil.

Suspicion will directly affect the gold production of this country, and then affect the world gold supply.

The central bank sells gold. The central bank is the largest gold holder in the world. 1969 The official gold reserve was 36,458 tons, accounting for 42.6% of the total surface gold stock at that time. By 1998, the official gold reserve is about 34,000 tons, accounting for 24. 1% of the total mined gold stock. According to the current production capacity, this is equivalent to the world gold mineral output 13.

Because the main use of gold has gradually changed from an important reserve asset to a metal raw material for jewelry production, either to improve the balance of payments or to curb the international gold price, the central bank's gold reserves have declined greatly in absolute and relative quantities in the past 30 years, and the decline in quantity mainly depends on the sale of gold reserves in the gold market. For example, the massive sell-off by the Bank of England,

The Swiss central bank and the International Monetary Fund are preparing to reduce their gold reserves, which has become the international gold in the near future.

The main reason for the decline of market gold price.

2. Demand factor: The demand for gold is directly related to the use of gold.

Changes in the actual demand for gold (jewelry industry, industry, etc. ).

Generally speaking, the development speed of the world economy determines the total demand for gold. For example, in the field of microelectronics, gold is increasingly used as a protective layer; In the fields of medicine and architectural decoration, despite the progress of science and technology, gold substitutes are constantly emerging.

At present, the demand for gold is still rising due to its special metallic properties. However, due to local factors, some areas need gold.

Seek to have a significant impact. For example, India and Southeast Asian countries have always had a great demand for gold jewelry, which was affected by the financial crisis from 1997.

Since 1998, the import of gold has greatly decreased. According to the data of the World Gold Council, the demand for gold in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea decreased by 7 1%, 28%, 10% and 9% respectively.

The need to preserve value. Gold reserves have always been regarded by the central bank as an important means to prevent domestic inflation and regulate the market. For ordinary investors, investing in gold is mainly for the purpose of preserving value under inflation. During the economic downturn, due to the insurance of gold relative to monetary assets, the demand for gold increased and the price of gold rose. For example, in the three dollar crises after World War II, due to the serious balance of payments deficit in the United States, the dollar held by various countries increased greatly, the market's confidence in the value of the dollar was shaken, and investors snapped up gold in large quantities, which directly led to the bankruptcy of the Bretton Woods system. 1987 because

The depreciation of the US dollar, the increase of the US deficit and the unstable situation in the Middle East have also prompted the international gold price to rise sharply.