A warning from the Dubai assassination?

Judging from the disclosures, the entire operational issue occurred on Dubai's well-developed surveillance system. However, upon careful analysis, it is not difficult to find that even if they are not in Dubai, high-end hotels in any country now have monitoring devices, but the implementation personnel have not taken any measures. If this was not intentional, it would be a major error in action planning. The police in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, said on the 24th that the number of suspects suspected of assassinating the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) military commander Mabhouh has reached 26. According to foreign reports, these suspects are agents from the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. Israel refuses to acknowledge this. But what information can we get from this operation exposed by the media? Today, Xinhua military reporters specifically interviewed Ai Yansong, a teacher in the Special Teaching and Research Section of Shijiazhuang Mechanized Infantry College who participated in the "Elna Assault". 1. Assassination requires a variety of skills. Xinhua Military: Some media said that Mossad was involved in this incident. What do you think of this? Ai Yansong: Mossad is one of the most important intelligence agencies in Israel. Although it has a small number of people, it has the most capable style and the most vicious approach. In many operations, especially operations such as assassinations that can easily have a negative impact on Israel, Israel implements a vague policy as its Foreign Minister Lieberman said, that is, "Israel never responds, never confirms, never deny". Therefore, many assassinations in history have not received a response from the government, but foreign analysts believe that the modus operandi and relevant evidence of many operations indicate that they were clearly carried out by Mossad. According to foreign media reports, Mossad has carried out many assassinations in history. A typical example is the "God's Revenge" retaliatory assassination carried out by Mossad after the Munich massacre; on April 15, 1988, Mossad Sadad sent secret service agents to assassinate Arafat's right-hand man, Jihad, in his house, killing him with more than 70 bullets. In 2004, Mossad used missiles to attack Hamas spiritual leader Yassin, launching three missiles. He died on the spot; on the evening of February 12, 2008, Mossad assassinated Lebanese Hezbollah leader Mouniyeh in Damascus. In August of the same year, Mossad, with the cooperation of Israeli special forces, assassinated Syrian General Suleiman. Of course, none of this has been officially confirmed, just speculation from foreign sources. Xinhua Military: There is information that many Mossad agents are from the Israeli special forces. As far as you know, do the Israeli special forces have operational training on assassinations and secret arrests? Ai Yansong: Indeed, many Mossad agents come from Israeli special forces. Regarding whether Israeli special forces conduct assassination training, we must first clarify one issue, and that is the relationship between special forces and special operations. Not all tasks and operations performed by special forces are special operations, and not all those who carry out special operations operations are special forces. In the final analysis, assassination is not a very glorious action. Therefore, although assassination is theoretically a special operations operation, most special forces from various countries do not regard assassination as their mission pattern. So when you look through relevant information on special forces from various countries, it is difficult to see descriptions of assassinations. At the same time, assassination is a broad concept, and the abilities it requires are a collection of multiple skills. The training of special forces is very comprehensive. It is almost certain that a qualified special forces has the ability to carry out some assassination styles. Like a special forces sniper, he is good at disguise and has flexible reactions. When a sniper successfully penetrates behind enemy lines, he can be said to have transformed into a killer. Therefore, although some special forces do not have professional training in assassination, they have developed the ability to conduct "assassination operations" during their training. Israel's special forces refer to special operations forces affiliated with the military such as the General Staff Reconnaissance Battalion and the Naval Commandos. Their training is still focused on combat operations. The training topics include reconnaissance, rescue, raids, anti-terrorism search and suppression, etc. If assassinations and secret arrests are classified as targeted killings, then special forces are trained in a targeted manner. I am not aware of the situation if assassinations and similar operations are treated as separate training subjects. However, according to the British "Sunday Independent", some Israeli special forces have established assassination squads. The person interviewed in the report was a retired special forces soldier. According to his recollections, he had received assassination training in his special forces and carried out assassinations. action. This may have something to do with Israel's environment.

2. Three major changes are required to go from a special forces member to an agent. Xinhua Military: From a foreign perspective, what changes are required from a special operations member to an agent of a national intelligence agency? Ai Yansong: The special forces are a special group of soldiers. It requires all members to have strong physical and psychological qualities, as well as quite comprehensive combat skills. Agents are special people among special groups. If you go from a special operations team member to an agent of an intelligence agency, there are still many aspects that need to be transformed. The first is to enhance the ability to obtain intelligence. Special forces are also responsible for intelligence reconnaissance tasks, but they are completely different from the way agents obtain intelligence. Efficiently obtaining intelligence is one of the special tasks of an agent. The second is psychological tolerance. Many agents only complete one mission in their lives, but completing this mission requires a long period of preparation. In this kind of preparation, "long-term dormancy" requires strong psychological tolerance. Each of these agents has extraordinary skills and has received professional training, but after they arrive at the hiding place, they may not participate in any operations for several years or even more than ten years and live an ordinary life. However, once they receive the order, they return to their true nature as agents and immediately launch operations around the world. For example, the British-born Israeli female agent Penelope worked as a "sleep killer" in Germany for three years before assassinating Fatah security chief Ali Hassan Salama. The third is the strengthening of action skills. Special operations team members possess comprehensive combat capabilities, which play a key role in combat. However, as an agent, his ability to act is different. Because the environment in which an agent is located is very special, communication, business, culture, etc. may all become necessary abilities for agents in different environments. Therefore, if you want to become an agent, you must first learn to adapt to a complex social environment. It can be seen that from a special operations team member to an intelligence agency agent, there are many aspects that need to be transformed, and it requires long-term training and training. 3. Five major characteristics of assassination operations by foreign intelligence agencies Xinhua Military: What characteristics are reflected in the planning and organization of assassination operations by foreign intelligence agencies? Ai Yansong: Foreign intelligence agencies often do not disclose assassinations to the public. All the information currently available on the assassination operations carried out by intelligence agencies is mostly incomplete information or even mere conjecture. Details are impossible to come by. According to the materials I know so far, the assassination operations carried out by foreign intelligence agencies reflect the following characteristics: The first is to formulate a highly thorough action plan. Due to the particularity of their profession, intelligence agencies are able to master more specific activities of their targets. Therefore, they usually conduct careful deployment and design before taking action, and every detail is considered very thoughtfully. The second is efficient intelligence protection. Assassination is a highly time-sensitive operation, and the target may change its course of action at any time. Therefore operations require efficient intelligence support. For example, in the operation to assassinate Mabahouh, the Israeli intelligence agency monitored his phone calls with his family and monitored his online hotel booking records. The third is coordinated action by multiple people. The assassination operation is a complex process. To ensure that no problems occur in every link, this requires a high degree of coordinated action by all those involved in the operation. The fourth is to use whatever means necessary. In order to achieve the purpose of assassination, intelligence agencies will use various means to achieve their goals. For example, Israeli female agents often use sex as a tool to carry out assassinations. The fifth is strict confidentiality. In Mossad's case, its insistence on secrecy reached the point of paranoia. Michael Ross, who worked for Mossad for 13 years, said in his memoirs: "Agents cannot contact Mossad headquarters directly and must rely on intermediaries. They only know what they need to know... Like other agents, I don't know the secrets of my colleagues." His real name, his home address, whether he is married, and whether he has children are unknown. "The more an agent knows, the more information he may reveal once he is captured by the enemy and forced to confess." 4. Three details need to be paid attention to in the assassination in Dubai. Xinhua Military: The assassination in Dubai was caught on camera. What problems did it expose in the operational organization? Ai Yansong: Although the Dubai police claimed that Mossad was 99% likely to be involved in the assassination, Israel has not publicly acknowledged it. But I think there are at least a few aspects worth paying attention to. On February 13, 2008, Syrian security personnel inspected the scene of a car bombing in the capital Damascus. Imad Mughniyeh, an important figure in Lebanese Hezbollah, died in a car explosion in Damascus on the evening of the 12th.

U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Mugniye is suspected of participating in multiple terrorist incidents. Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran accused Israel of planning the assassination of Mughniyeh. Xinhua/AFP First of all, there is the issue of the quality of agents. With the changes of the times, it is difficult for Western countries to rely solely on ideals and beliefs to support the spiritual pursuit of agents as before. Many foreign intelligence organizations are facing a serious shortage of manpower because no young people are willing to be agents. Only then did the phenomenon of agent recruitment advertisements appear in major Hebrew newspapers in Israel in 2002, which was unimaginable before. Secondly, judging from the disclosure, the entire operational problem occurred in Dubai's well-developed surveillance system. However, upon careful analysis, it is not difficult to find that even if they are not in Dubai, high-end hotels in any country now have monitoring devices, but the implementation personnel have not taken any measures. If this was not intentional, it would be a major error in action planning. This shows that the implementer is inexperienced and not thoughtful enough. Finally, there is the international impact. In the new system of state relations, it is increasingly unpopular to do whatever one wants and to be self-centered. No matter who planned this incident, it shows that he had serious misunderstandings in his thinking and did not consider the possible consequences of the incident. Xinhua Military: According to foreign reports, the suspects involved in this assassination all forged passports and carried out transnational operations. So what impact has this had on current international relations? Ai Yansong: Forged passports used to be very common among foreign intelligence agencies. But as a former Mossad agent said: "20 or 30 years ago, you could use a fake passport that you printed yourself. Sometimes the quality was even better than the original one, but it was always a fake. But today in 2010 it is almost Impossible, because any customs officer at Dubai Airport has a larger database than the FBI did in the Hoover years 50 years ago, so the passports must be authentic. "It can be seen that in this operation, all passports. They are all real, and they have their own names, but they are fake. When implementing transnational operations, the biggest concerns are diplomatic issues and international relations issues. This incident has put Israel in the spotlight, and what is even more shocking is that as more inside information is revealed, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is also getting involved. At present, all relevant European countries have asked Israel to explain the passport fraud problem. The United Kingdom and Ireland summoned the Israeli ambassador one after another after the incident, demanding that they cooperate with the international investigation into the truth of the assassination and explain the origin of the altered passports. German Foreign Minister Westerwelle said that Germany would be "forced" to investigate the assassination. This assassination will cause Israel to once again lose its diplomatic leverage after sending troops to Gaza last year, which had a negative impact, and will worsen the already cold relationship between Israel and the European Union. But one thing should not be ignored, that is, the diplomatic relations between countries are ultimately a relationship of interests. Although this incident has had an adverse impact on Israel's diplomacy, what can really have a substantial impact on current international relations is the change in interests between countries. Therefore, I believe that this single incident is unlikely to have a substantial impact on the current international relations environment.