Is there no momentum in the new energy market? People are willing to pay a crazy price for this kind of car.

[car home? Industry] Before the launch of the new energy vehicle market, the only fuel-efficient vehicles that ordinary people can choose are hybrid vehicles, and they are basically Japanese cars. Later, pure electric vehicles without oil and plug-in hybrid vehicles with or without oil came. Wearing colorful clothes and stepping on colorful clouds, they soon got things done in the car market. Hybrid cars without any home advantage have become silent, and various media are more keen on reporting new energy vehicles, with little mention of the hybrid market.

As we all know, after entering the new subsidy cycle in July last year, coupled with the impact of this year's epidemic, the domestic new energy vehicle market is like a frost-beaten eggplant, and the industry is experiencing a painful upward adjustment period, and it will take time to nirvana. But the hybrid market is different. They are quietly getting rich.

Note: The data in this paper mainly discuss strong mixing, and the data does not include weak mixing.

◆ Going against the market, the sales volume increased 16.2% year-on-year?

Since the beginning of this year, the whole domestic auto market has been depressed, and there is no doubt that it will go down, but the extent of it is a problem. According to the data of the Federation, from June 5438 to July this year, the national sales of passenger cars reached 9.309 million, a cumulative year-on-year decline of 18.5%. Specific to the power type, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles decreased by 35.8% year-on-year, and the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles decreased by 37.7% year-on-year, both of which were worse than the overall automobile market.

However, there is a kind of car besides hybrid car. In the first seven months, the domestic wholesale sales volume of hybrid vehicles was166,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%. If you add imported hybrid cars from Lexus, the market will be even bigger. After all, nearly 40% of the cars sold by Lexus in China are hybrid cars.

New energy vehicles, which have high hopes, have now entered a period of deep adjustment. As can be seen from the following figure, in 20 18, the momentum of hybrid vehicles was suppressed by new energy vehicles. However, from 20 19, especially in the second half of 20 19, the trend of the hybrid market began to rise obviously. While the sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles declined year-on-year, the sales of hybrid vehicles continued to grow year-on-year.

However, we have expectations for new energy vehicles, and our feelings for hybrid vehicles are complicated. Why?

◆ After years of deep cultivation, Japanese hybrid sales accelerated.

Hybrid, China car companies have no technology accumulation, which is the world of Japanese cars, or precisely the world of "two fields". American cars have also introduced several hybrid models, such as Buick's Regal, LaCrosse, Cadillac XT5 and Mai Rui Bao XL. However, the market acceptance is not high, and production and sales have stopped at present. At present, the domestic hybrid market is really a Japanese car.

In 2020, the sales of Japanese hybrid cars began to grow rapidly this year, which is actually related to the business layout of "two fields" for many years. We put the time back to three years ago-201711. Toyota launched Camry based on TNGA platform in China market, which was the first "punch" for Toyota to lay out the mixed market in China. Today, Toyota started the battery factory production in Changshu as early as 20 15, and the cost was controlled. After more than two years of planning, it is time for Toyota hybrid cars to "reap the fruits" in the China market in 2020.

Honda is similar. In 20 18, Honda Accord was replaced and a hybrid version was introduced. On 20 19, the mixed version of Odyssey and Alice was launched, and Lingpai was replaced and the mixed version was added. It is also a two-year plan, and it has also accepted the test of the consumer market and began to "receive fruit". Nissan's e-POWER technology platform will also launch new products next year. ...

Camry

In the first seven months of this year, the cumulative sales volume of the Corolla hybrid version and the Accord hybrid version both exceeded 20,000 vehicles, ranking first and second in the sales list of hybrid models, followed by the Lei Ling hybrid version, and the Asian Dragon hybrid version also performed well, with a monthly sales volume of about 4,000 vehicles, which is equivalent to that of Lei Ling. The sales of two MPVs, Alice and Odyssey, have also remained at the level of more than 3,000 vehicles in the past two months. Overall, Toyota's sales of hybrid models are higher than Honda's.

These cars include Corolla, Lei Ling, Accord, Camry and so on. I have been deeply involved in the China market for two or three years. Judging from this year's performance, the sales volume of the Corolla hybrid version dropped sharply, with the cumulative sales volume dropping by 265,438+0% year-on-year, and the Honda CR-V and Camry hybrid versions also dropped by 65,438+09.8% and 654,338% year-on-year, respectively. However, the sales volume of hybrid Lei Ling and Accord maintained a year-on-year growth, increasing by 7.2% and 9. 1% respectively.

"Carola"

Among the above cars, the sales proportion of hybrid models varies greatly. For example, the latest Odyssey models are all hybrid versions, and only the 20 18 old models are traditional fuel-powered versions, so more than 90% of Odyssey models sold in the first half of this year are hybrid versions; The sales volume of the Accord Hybrid Edition accounts for 22. 17%, and that of Lei Ling accounts for 17.2%. With the highest sales volume, the hybrid version only accounts for 13.97% of the whole car. After all, this is the player who can enter the top three in the whole car list.

Odyssey

In addition, there is no statistics on imported cars in the data of the Federation, so there is no Lexus in the above ranking. In fact, in the first eight months of this year, the sales volume of Lexus in China market reached 654.38+038.4 thousand, of which smart and hybrid models accounted for nearly 40%, about 55 thousand. In this way, Lexus should be the biggest winner of hybrid cars.

Lexus also specially launched the 2020 lexus ES? 300h, Lexus? NX？ 300h, Lexus RX? 450h and RX? 450hL smart hybrid special limited edition and other models, zero discount or even raising the price to pick up the car is quite confident for China consumers.

"lexus ES? 300h】

The economy is good, and it is most favored by first-tier cities.

Judging from the consumer support policy, hybrid vehicles have not received any preferential treatment, subsidies or special road rights (except Guangzhou, which will be involved later). In terms of selling price, hybrid models are also more expensive than ordinary fuel versions. The reason why they are favored by consumers is because of their good economy.

For example, the Lei Ling hybrid version is 20,000 yuan more expensive than the normal version, and the plug-in hybrid version is 90,000 yuan more expensive. However, the price difference after exemption from purchase tax is only over 30,000 points, and Corolla is basically in this different grade. Camry is more powerful, and the hybrid version is 60,000 yuan more expensive than the regular version.

However, in the actual use process, the comprehensive fuel consumption of Toyota Camry 2.5L hybrid and Honda Accord 2.0L hybrid is about 4L per 100 kilometers, and the fuel version is about 6L per 100 kilometers, and the actual fuel saving rate is about 30%-35%. The economic account here is calculated by the owner himself. How long does it take to fill a tank of oil? The longer it takes, the more real the owner's feelings will be.

The good economy of hybrid electric vehicles, especially in urban congested sections, makes them popular in first-tier cities. Beishangguangshen and Tianjin are the five cities with the highest sales volume of hybrid vehicles this year.

There is no objection to the fact that the sales volume of hybrid cars in Guangzhou is the first. First, "two fields" have the effect of "sitting on the ground and starting at the price" in the Guangzhou market. Second, Guangzhou has a special policy on licensing hybrid cars, and the lottery rate is relatively high. Hybrid electric vehicles not only have low fuel consumption, but also are not limited by charging facilities. There are many local cars in Guangzhou used to run online.

Some surveys have found that they are all in Guangzhou. Use Aion? S (Aean S) and Corolla hybrid network get a ride, and the latter driver earns more and saves more worry, so the hybrid version of Corolla and Lei Ling is very popular in the Guangzhou network car ride market.

And interestingly, we collected the sales trend of hybrid, pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in Guangzhou since 20 18, and found that the sales volume of hybrid vehicles in Guangzhou has surpassed that of new energy vehicles since July last year, and has remained so far. That time point is the starting point of the latest subsidy retreat.

Editor's comment:

When writing this article, I was a little worried about being said to be unfair, but what is certain is that it is neither a top draft nor a bragging draft. We only use data to speak because data has such a rigid and rigorous face.

At the time of writing, Guangqi Honda announced the sales figures in August, and the "dual-power" product camp handed over such transcripts: SPORT? Turbine camp sold 42,532 vehicles in August, up 65,438+04.5% year-on-year; Exercise? In August, the hybrid camp achieved sales of 65,438+00,939 vehicles, up 57.4% year-on-year-the growth rate of hybrid vehicles was even better, and as mentioned above, it began to "reap the fruits".

The exploration of automobile technical route is a long and arduous process. Mixing may not be to suppress new energy, but when the "double-point management" policy cannot be used as a killer, when the overall consumption environment of new energy vehicles is still unfriendly, the choices made by consumers after comprehensive economy, convenience and even product strength are true. The Japanese mixed layout can be described as exhausted. In the domestic new energy automobile industry, the state has devoted so many resources and a group of autobots have devoted so much effort. They should also get more consumers' favor as soon as possible, plus "electricity"! New Energy Jun (Text/car home? Wang Jingbo)