Nurses or administrative office workers, which do 23-year-old girls choose?

Who is more promising, the parenting teacher or the administrative back office?

"Codeable" jobs may suffer from the "dimensionality reduction blow" of artificial intelligence. Even Musk publicly stated that "artificial intelligence is the biggest threat that our human civilization has ever faced".

However, there is still a proverb that I don't know if you have heard of it-"There is a Phnom Penh behind the dark clouds". In other words, the technological revolution will make many occupations on the verge of extinction, but it will also provide new leverage for many occupations. As I said before, the boundaries and definitions of "good occupation" and "bad occupation" are beginning to change.

In the era of artificial intelligence, what skills are more promising? In this lecture, I will start with a specific problem and show you another logic of choosing a job.

1. Who is more promising, the parenting wife or the administrative secretary?

Let me ask you first: which is the better career prospect, the parenting sister-in-law or the secretary of a big company?

Traditionally, everyone must think that secretarial work is better than child-rearing. How can the work of serving people be compared with the white-collar workers in the company? But after listening to the last lecture, you must know that the main tasks of secretaries in big companies are data sorting, data statistics and so on. These tasks can be easily realized by computer software in the future, because they are "codeable".

What about parenting? I tell you, when my adopted sister-in-law came to Beijing in 2008, the starting salary was 1000 yuan/month, and now it is 8,000 yuan/month, and all kinds of benefits have increased by more than 800%, with an average annual increase of more than 20%. Does that sound good? I tell you, it's not good, but it's quite good.

The wages of child brides increase by more than 20% every year. Do you know the increase of the average income of urban residents in China in the same period? But 8.6%. However, some jobs that we think are the best have even lower growth rates. For example, the salary increase of returned professors in major universities in Beijing is basically within 5%, although it is different.

There is more heartfelt data: after studying the recruitment salary of various occupations in China, our team found that the average recruitment salary of parenting wives in China in 20 19 was 6009 yuan, and the average recruitment salary of beauty salons was 6280 yuan. How about the recruitment salary for secretaries/administrative clerks? Only 4650 yuan.

Obviously, the wages of skilled blue-collar workers have begun to exceed those of white-collar workers with "codeable" jobs. This trend will be more obvious in 2020.

Many white-collar jobs depreciate because they are "codeable", so why does the income of skilled blue-collar workers rise sharply?

Two, social intelligence occupation, creative occupation, perceptual and operational occupation.

This answer should be found in the three most promising skills in the era of artificial intelligence.

According to scientists' research, there are three skills that artificial intelligence cannot replace: "social intelligence", "creativity" and "perception and manipulation".

Social wisdom includes social insight, negotiation ability, sympathy and other social and emotional abilities, creativity includes originality and artistic aesthetic ability, and perception and operation ability mainly refers to finger sensitivity, coordinated operation ability and ability to cope with complex working environment.

These skills mainly include the ability to "deal with people", or that kind of abstract ability, which is very dynamic and unpredictable. And this is the fate of artificial intelligence-so any occupation that needs these three abilities is extremely unlikely to be replaced by artificial intelligence.

Which ones are more promising and correspond to real-life occupations? In order to make you have a clearer sense of your future career choice, based on the research of Frey and Osborne, two economists of Oxford University mentioned last class, we listed more than 200 "low-risk occupations" with a probability of being replaced by artificial intelligence less than 30% according to the skills required by each occupation, and divided them into social intelligence occupations, creative occupations, perceptual and operational occupations and all-round occupations that need the above skills. Slide to the end to see this form. I'll choose a few typical ones to tell you.

For example, why is parenting sister-in-law valuable? We usually think that the wife who raises children is a career of "serving people", but in fact it is a typical career of "social wisdom": their work not only includes mechanical laundry and cooking, but also needs to communicate with children. A good wife who nurtures children can help children with early training in motor skills, intellectual development and personality development. What's more, in Chinese families, raising children often needs to get along with several generations in the family at the same time, which requires high social wisdom.

You go to the market to observe that those excellent parenting sisters are in short supply, and their wages are soaring, and this trend continues. The probability that the elder sister-in-law is replaced by artificial intelligence is only 8.4%, which is far lower than 96% of secretaries/administrative clerks and even lower than 43% of professional economists.

Teachers are also social intelligence professions. The teacher's role is not only to impart knowledge, but more importantly, to "educate people" and cultivate students' ability, conduct and three views, which are difficult for robots to do. The probability of primary school teachers being replaced by artificial intelligence is only 0.44%, which is the most "low risk" in almost all occupations.

For another example, "creative" occupations include natural scientists, artists and R&D engineers. Needless to say, the artist's artistic creation is the expression of human emotions, which requires a steady stream of "beauty" creativity, and emotional expression and beauty are both subjective products of human beings. Qi Baishi has a famous saying: "Those who learn from me live as if they were dead." Although artificial intelligence can imitate the artist's works realistically, it has no emotion, no ability to create beauty, and can't open up new techniques and schools, so it is difficult to replace the artist's career. The data shows that the probability that artists (including painters, sculptors and illustrators) are replaced by artificial intelligence is only 4.2%.

Software application development engineer is also a typical creative profession, who needs to design new software and develop new software functions according to the needs of users. The probability of being replaced by artificial intelligence is only 4.2%.

Beauty hairdressers, emergency medical staff, pilots, these are all occupations with high requirements for "perception and operation". For example, in the face of thousands of customers, beauty salons need design modeling and non-standardized refined operation, which is a typical perceptual and operational occupation. Emergency medical staff need to face patients with rapidly changing and complicated conditions, make accurate judgments in a short time, and take accurate and professional rescue measures to save patients' lives. The probability of being replaced by artificial intelligence is only 4.9%.

Medical staff are typical "all-round" occupations: they need to communicate with patients and their families, give patients humanistic and psychological care, and need social wisdom; Faced with the huge uncertainty in their work, they need to make accurate judgments according to the different conditions of patients and think about new diagnosis and treatment methods for new cases, which requires creativity; In the process of surgery and physical therapy, medical staff also need a lot of fine operations, which also tests the "perception and operation ability". This kind of occupation is very obvious, and the probability of being replaced by artificial intelligence is very low.

Third, artificial intelligence contributes to a "good career"

To sum up, these occupations are potential occupations in the next ten or even twenty years. Their common characteristics are obvious: their career development mainly depends on their social skills, creativity, perception and operational skills, which are "understandable but difficult to express" and difficult to be "coded". Therefore, the growth rate of human capital is fast and the depreciation rate is slow-young people choose such a professional track, which is equivalent to choosing a track with more potential to create wealth.

There is another interesting place here: these occupations will not be replaced, but artificial intelligence will help them.

Because a creative career actually involves a lot of repetitive work: a doctor has to write medical records, watch movies and do routine operations; A doctoral student in biology in Peking University spends a lot of time brushing test tubes, washing bottles and preparing experimental materials every day. A people's teacher often stays up late to correct students' homework. Artificial intelligence can liberate human beings from tedious programmed labor, let them focus on the parts that need creativity, judgment and social strength, increase the premium of these "uncoded" skills, and invisibly increase the value of these occupations, making them more powerful.