Land market

(1) The growth rate of land transfer income dropped.

According to preliminary statistics, the national land transfer price exceeds 3 trillion yuan. Judging from the changes in the year, the price in June 5438+ 10 was the highest in a single month, and the intensive real estate control policy triggered a strong market reaction. In February, the transfer price dropped by nearly 50%, which was the highest since 2009. In the following months, it hovered around 250 billion yuan (Figure 7). Considering that 10% 15% of land transfer income is used for public rental housing, 10% for education funds, 10% for farmland water conservancy construction, etc., the lack of overall management of land transfer income will undoubtedly worry local governments that rely on land finance.

Figure 7 Land transfer price

Income from land transfer in key cities declined. According to the data of China Index Academy, in 20 1 1 year, the total amount of urban land transfer fees in China 130 was 190523 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1 1%. Shanghai and Beijing are the only cities where the land transfer fee exceeds 1000 billion yuan, of which Shanghai's land transfer fee is 65.438+027 billion yuan, ranking first in the country, but it is 65.438+06.1%lower than the previous year. Beijing's land transfer fee exceeded 100 billion, down 35.7% year-on-year; Dalian, which ranked third in 20 10, saw the most obvious decline in 2010, and its total transfer fee was only 40% of the previous year. According to the data of the comprehensive information supervision platform of land and resources, except Beijing, the land transfer fees of hot cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Dalian, Hangzhou and Guangzhou have all declined (Figure 8). Under the influence of strict property market regulation and land policy, the land market has been depressed all the year round, but more second-and third-tier cities are less affected by property market regulation than key cities. Even in key cities, some are growing against the trend. For example, Kunming rose as high as 147.6%, and Shenyang rose by 90.3% year-on-year. From a national perspective, land transfer fees are still rising.

Figure 8 Comparison of land transfer prices in some hot cities in 2010 and 20 1 1 year.

(2) The land price growth rate is adjusted quarterly.

20 1 1 year is the most severe year of the national property market regulation policy, and it is also the year when the regulation policy is implemented. Affected by the property market, the land market is deserted. The growth rate of land price has declined for four consecutive quarters. Among them, the comprehensive land price in the first four quarters was 2.20%, 1.87%, 1.33% and 0.29% respectively, and the commercial land price in the first four quarters was 3.33%, 2.77%, 1.98% and 0.69% respectively. From the first quarter to the fourth quarter, the residential land price was 2.44%, 2. 17%, 1.69% and 0% respectively, and the industrial land price was 1.43%, 1. 13% and 0.64 respectively. Except for the first quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of the other three quarters was lower than that of the same period last year. Among them, the comprehensive land price in the first four quarters was 8.52%, 8.85%, 8.37% and 5.94% respectively, and the commercial land price in the first four quarters was 10.99% and1/0.76 respectively. From the first quarter to the fourth quarter, the residential land prices were 10.23%, 10.73%, 10.48% and 6.58% respectively, and the industrial land prices were 5.50%, 5.45%, 4.6 1% and 3.88% respectively. 20 1 1 in the fourth quarter, the overall level of land prices in major monitored cities nationwide was 3,049 yuan/m2, and the land prices for commercial services, houses and industries were 5,654 yuan/m2, 45 18 yuan/m2 and 652 yuan/m2 respectively (Figure 9).

Figure 9 Overall level growth of land prices in major cities (chain)

Data source: www.landvalue.com.cn 2007-2011Urban Land Price Dynamic Monitoring Report.

(3) The increase of land acquisition area has dropped significantly.

20 1 1 year, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises in China is 4 10/000 million square meters (figure 10), an increase of 2.6% over the previous year, and the growth rate is 22.6 percentage points lower than that of the previous year. Judging from the situation during the year, the year-on-year growth rate of land acquisition area dropped sharply, from 57. 1% in February to 2 1.3% in February. The demand for real estate land is greatly influenced by monetary policy. From June 20 10 to July 20 1 1 year, the deposit reserve and interest rate were intensively adjusted, with five interest rate increases and nine deposit reserve increases. The last intensive adjustment of interest rates and deposit reserve was in 2008. After each intensive adjustment, the land purchase area has responded. The upward adjustment cycle ended in June 2008, and the land purchase area began to decline slightly in July; The downward adjustment cycle ended in June 5438+February 2008, and the land purchase area began to rise month by month in June 5438 +2009 10; The upward adjustment of 20 1 1 ended in July, and the land purchase area decreased month by month in September. On February 5, 65438, the deposit reserve was lowered by 0.5 percentage point, but it was still at a high level of 2 1%. If there is no intensive adjustment, the demand for land acquisition area will maintain a downward trend.

Figure 10 Land Acquisition Area Completed by Real Estate Enterprises

Box 2: The frequency of land flow standard highlights the deserted primary market.

20 1 1 With the gradual deepening of real estate regulation and control, land bidding has become a key word in the market, land bidding and auction have appeared frequently, and land reserve price transactions have increased. According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate, there were 900 cases of land flow in 130 big cities in China during the year, including 420 cases of residential flow. Compared with 280 cases of 20 10, the total number of bidding failures increased by 2.2 times. Compared with 20 10/30 cases, the flow standard of residential plots has increased by 223%. Among them, the number of land tenders reached 6 1 in July alone, which is basically equivalent to the sum of the number of tenders from 1 to February; In the second half of the year, the phenomenon of land auction continued unabated and even intensified. Among them, the number of land auctions in June 5438+065438+ 10 and June 5438+February reached nearly 300, and the proportion of residential buildings reached 50%.

The introduction of the purchase restriction policy has obvious urban land transfer standards. According to the data of Lianjia Real Estate, as of August of 20 1 1, the top ten cities in the national land auction standard were Shenyang, Jinan, Dalian, Dongguan, Beijing, Chengdu, Taiyuan, Taizhou, Wenzhou and Wuhan, among which, except Dongguan, the other nine cities all implemented the purchase restriction. In addition, the flow of residential land in second-and third-tier cities that have introduced the "restricted purchase" policy is also very obvious. In Foshan City, where the property market recently relaxed its purchase restrictions and stopped, the number of 20 1 1 land sales and transactions decreased significantly, and the bidding rate nearly doubled year-on-year. The phenomenon of land auction is widespread, on the one hand, because the stability and continuity of macro-control policies have an impact on the psychology of land in the market, on the other hand, developers are completely lacking in funds and motivation to take land.