What is the development trend of architectural design?

Development trend of architectural design industry in the future 10 year

Before expounding the development trend of my architectural design industry, I want to talk about the development process of home appliance manufacturing industry, because as long as it is an industry, its development process will be similar.

In the 1980s, there were more than 70 designated manufacturers of refrigerators and more than 80 designated manufacturers of washing machines in China. At the same time, household appliances such as refrigerators and washing machines are produced at designated points, and people also need tickets to buy them. The whole industry is in short supply, which can be said to be in short supply. Therefore, the refrigerator and washing machine industries are highly respected. Even in the annual work report of the Prime Minister's government, the development of refrigerator and washing machine industry was mentioned.

After the breakthrough of fixed-point production in the early 1990s, the household appliance industry in China entered a period of comprehensive and rapid growth, and the high profit rate of the household appliance industry became the goal pursued by many manufacturers. At that time, the profit rate of home appliances was as high as 30%. During that period, the number of home appliance brands surged, reaching a peak at 1995. The air-conditioning industry alone has registered more than 400 brands, not counting some "wild" brands. At the same time, foreign enterprises have also changed from the previous technology input to capital input, and established joint venture factories with domestic enterprises, such as Panasonic and Hitachi.

After 1995, the household appliance industry quickly took off its flashy coat. Although the production and sales volume is expanding, the profit rate has plummeted, until today it has dropped to 1% ~ 3%. The whole industry gradually bid farewell to the chaotic period and entered the period of rational competition, which was integrated in the escalating reshuffle war.

Architectural design industry and manufacturing industry mainly have the following differences.

1 The architectural design industry is a people-oriented industry, which is completely hand-made, unlike the manufacturing industry, which needs so many raw materials as soon as it is turned on, which leads to the rapid completion of the process from zero to saturation in the manufacturing industry, while the process in the construction industry will be longer.

The development of the construction industry is closely related to the macro-economy, which is roughly consistent with the development curve of the national urbanization process. Urbanization has its inherent laws, and the household appliance industry can quickly saturate after the per capita GDP reaches a certain amount.

British scholar Vanden and American geographer Northam, through the empirical research on the development and changes of cities in various countries, come to the conclusion that urban development has periodic laws and the overall trend shows an inverted "S" smooth curve. At the beginning, it was dominated by agricultural economy, and the urbanization rate was slow. When the urban population exceeds 10%, the level of urbanization is gradually accelerated. When the urban population exceeds 30%, urbanization enters an accelerated stage, the industrial scale expands rapidly, and the agricultural population quickly gathers in cities. This trend will continue until the urban population reaches 70%.

By the end of 2006, the urbanization rate of China has reached 43.9%. If the population of China reaches1500 million in the next 10 year, nearly 400 million farmers will enter the city when urbanization reaches 70%. If Beijing's current population is 20 million, China will build 20 new cities the size of Beijing before urbanization reaches 70%.

Therefore, from the general trend, the prosperity of the construction industry will last at least until China's urbanization basically ends. Therefore, according to this speed, the most pessimistic forecast should be about 5- 10 years, that is, between 20 15-2020, the construction industry will gradually shrink and the profit rate will decline. Then architectural design enterprises that blossom everywhere will merge and close down like home appliance enterprises in the late 1990s, especially large state-owned design enterprises. Because of their high cost and heavy burden, they will fall down first or be merged by private design institutions until the last two types of enterprises can be preserved.

One is a studio design enterprise with distinctive style and distinctive features, represented by well-known architects;

Second, large commercial design institutions, such as som or kpf companies abroad.